I don’t believe this narrative. Trump remembers the Iran assassination plot…
Not that I don’t believe the diplomatic approach is best, but if Israel demolishes the entire Iranian Air Force, all the scientists, and SAM sites then a few B-2’s obliterate their underground enrichment facility, I wouldn’t shed a tear.
If…. Is the optimal word.
The issues with Iran is that the US would have to get involved if Bibi’s reasoning to go this direction is to be a success. While Trump says he supports Israel and is committed to aiding them vs Iran he risks angering Putin by doing this, and risks a huge and unpredictable power vacuum if they are successful.
Iran is in a very precarious state in which alot of its people have started to resist its government. However, there is no clear alternative to it. If we were to topple the Ayatollah’s regime then we could face another post Gaddafi Libya situation in which it’s a fight between gangs for control over the country. And there is no guarantee a friendly government triumphs in that fact.
To make matters worse, you have to remember Iran is Persian and Shia, and are surrounded by Sunni Arab countries. A Sunni-Shia or a Persian-Arab war would be horrible for everyone. Remember the Iran-Iraq war…. That’s what you are looking forward to.
Yeah I guess for most the end of a hostile regime is good even with the consequences it produces. But I’m also reminded of Iraq and Yugoslavia too. Everyone can get behind a plan to kill the violent dictator but no one can agree on a plan for what comes next
I wish we could go back to the days where Iran was our counterbalance to the Saudis. I also wish Iran would depose the Ayatollah but I fear if it’s the US and Israel doing it then it more than likely produces a worse state. So I will say that I hope this whole thing is very limited because it could have far reaching consequences that we aren’t prepared for if we put our thumb on the scale. Remember… Iran in the 50’s was a Constitutional monarchy that operated more like the UK, and the Ayatollah was seen as a crazy nut stuck in the past. That all changed when we chased Mossadegh out of town for wanting Iran to get a fair share of the oil that they produced and we effectively made the Shah an absolute monarch. Little did we know that almost 20 years later what the consequences of putting our thumb down in the Middle East would do….
But hey, we surely learned our lesson about establishing puppet governments friendly to the US after that.