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Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

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TIDE-HSV said:
To make Russia think twice about its recent aggressive pushing of the boundaries?
Click to expand...
Ding! We have a winner.

A professor told me this anecdote: In the ancient kingdom of Rome (735-509 BC), after Tarquinius Superbus wss kicked out fo town and was trying to regain his throne, a young Roman teenager tried to sneak into Tarquin's tent and assassinate him. When caught, Tarquin confronted him: "You do not really want to kill me. I'm your king!" The young man burned his own right hand off to show Tarquin how determined he was. Tarquin executed him. How can you reason with people like that?
Did this actually happen? Probably not, but 600 years later, Romans taught Roman schoolboys that story, and that is the story's significance.

So, today, the Trump Administration "leaks" this story. That itself is the significance. It may even be true.
 
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This is the most promising strategic approach I have seen since the invasion.
Zeihan has a tendency to be a potty mouth, but I did not hear anything untoward, so give him a listen.
If the plan was to tank the Russian oil system, then it appears they may be on their way. Once that happens, Russia will be strapped for cash.
 
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BREAKING:

Wall Street Journal reports that Trump has signed an order for the U.S. to start providing Ukraine with intelligence for long-range strikes against energy infrastructure deep inside Russia for the first time since the war started.

The U.S. is also considering sending Ukraine Tomahawk and Barracuda cruise missiles together with other U.S. ground and air-launched long-range missiles.

The U.S. is calling on European states to also provide Ukraine with the intelligence needed for long-range strikes against Russia.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973549431015284806
 
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Ukraine is preparing a major offensive on Crimea

According to Sky News, this could be either an amphibious landing on the peninsula or a massive attack on the Kerch Bridge, which is a key logistics artery for supplying Russian forces.

No details about timing or specific forces were given, but the outlet’s sources indicate preparations for a large-scale operation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973661802425712825
 
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NICE!

The gasoline crisis in Russia has spiraled out of control Fuel prices are rising, gas stations are going bankrupt, and in Crimea and Sevastopol, half of all stations have already shut down. As of the end of September, 38% of the primary oil refining capacity, which amounts to 338 thousand tons per day, was not operating at Russian refineries. The outages have remained at record levels throughout the second half of September. The main cause is drone attacks, which account for up to 70% of all shutdowns. Amid the crisis, Russia has been forced to import gasoline from Belarus.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973680918066762137
 
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crimsonaudio said:
NICE!

The gasoline crisis in Russia has spiraled out of control Fuel prices are rising, gas stations are going bankrupt, and in Crimea and Sevastopol, half of all stations have already shut down. As of the end of September, 38% of the primary oil refining capacity, which amounts to 338 thousand tons per day, was not operating at Russian refineries. The outages have remained at record levels throughout the second half of September. The main cause is drone attacks, which account for up to 70% of all shutdowns. Amid the crisis, Russia has been forced to import gasoline from Belarus.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973680918066762137
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couldn’t happen to a nicer bunch
 
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It's almost like we just need to rename this thread "Russia = bad"...

Russian intelligence services prepared a series of terrorist attacks in Poland According to sources in Polish law enforcement quoted by Gazeta Wyborcza, Russian intelligence services planned a series of terrorist acts on Polish territory in which drones were to drop explosives on critical infrastructure facilities. Agents from Poland's Internal Security Agency (ABW) detained several suspects involved in preparing the sabotage, including a courier who delivered 1.4 kg of TNT and drone components from Lithuania and Germany. The explosives found in his possession were stored in canned corn jars. The detainee told investigators that he had dug up explosives in cemeteries - at locations indicated to him by Russian handlers. He was then supposed to hide the jars in a cache near the Polish city of Łódź. As Gazeta Wyborcza notes, this gave intelligence services reason to believe that a network of such caches may have been created across Europe.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973722829863391396
 
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crimsonaudio said:
Ukraine is preparing a major offensive on Crimea

According to Sky News, this could be either an amphibious landing on the peninsula or a massive attack on the Kerch Bridge, which is a key logistics artery for supplying Russian forces.

No details about timing or specific forces were given, but the outlet’s sources indicate preparations for a large-scale operation.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973661802425712825
Click to expand...
Amphibious landings are the toughest play in the play-book.
It takes a lot of practice, the right kit, doctrine, etc.
I seriously doubt Ukraine could pull this off.

Now, attacking the Kerch Bridge is entirely within the realm of possibility.
 
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Tidewater said:
Amphibious landings are the toughest play in the play-book.
It takes a lot of practice, the right kit, doctrine, etc.
I seriously doubt Ukraine could pull this off.

Now, attacking the Kerch Bridge is entirely within the realm of possibility.
Click to expand...

Ukraine has been trying to attack the Kerch Bridge since 2022. There were dozens of attacks. At least one was successful when they blew up a truck with explosives on the bridge. It is a very hard target and
is well protected by Russian forces.

FWIW, I don't think Ukraine will have an offensive on Crimea any time soon. That looks more like a media hype. Ukraine will continue to destroy Russian military targets in Crimea with drones
 
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crimsonaudio said:
It's almost like we just need to rename this thread "Russia = bad"...

Russian intelligence services prepared a series of terrorist attacks in Poland According to sources in Polish law enforcement quoted by Gazeta Wyborcza, Russian intelligence services planned a series of terrorist acts on Polish territory in which drones were to drop explosives on critical infrastructure facilities. Agents from Poland's Internal Security Agency (ABW) detained several suspects involved in preparing the sabotage, including a courier who delivered 1.4 kg of TNT and drone components from Lithuania and Germany. The explosives found in his possession were stored in canned corn jars. The detainee told investigators that he had dug up explosives in cemeteries - at locations indicated to him by Russian handlers. He was then supposed to hide the jars in a cache near the Polish city of Łódź. As Gazeta Wyborcza notes, this gave intelligence services reason to believe that a network of such caches may have been created across Europe.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1973722829863391396
Click to expand...
s.n.r.s.s.
 
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Okay, now it's personal.
I'm stuck in eastern Europe because "somebody" was flying drones outside the Munich airport (where I was supposed to change planes). My Lufthansa flight got cancelled. Argh.

It is hardly surprising that "somebody" would use drones this way. Defenses are low in western Europe. The cost of a drone is quite low. The pay-off potentially quite high (bring down a commercial airliner), or (the less dramatic effect) close an airport during its busiest period of the year.
Drones are already illegal in Germany (so I'm told) but "somebody" got theirs in and caused a bunch of problems.
The only surprise is that they did this now, which tips their hand. If you save something like this for the first week of a more general war, you can do some real damage. At this point, today, it is simply a nuisance.
 
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Now former President writes a book with the title, "If We Did It."
Russia's Medvedev says drone disruption is a useful reminder to Europeans of danger of war
I am totally not surprised that the Russians reacted this way. Drones are cheap and reasonably deniable (even if we know who really did this, like using Novichuk to try to murder Skrypal). They could cause serious damage (if a drone went into a jet engine intake) or at the very least, will scare a lot of people.
 
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