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What if the Big Ten isn't all that and a bag of chips this year?

uafan4life

uafan4life

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I don't think there's any doubt that the Big Ten and the SEC are the two best conferences in college football this season. And, right now, most people think the two best teams in the country are from the Big Ten. Of course, we haven't yet had a lot of direct, on-the-field comparison between the top teams in these two conferences. The best SEC team a Big Ten team has beaten is only the sixth-highest-ranked SEC team. The best Big Ten team an SEC team has beaten is only the fifth-highest-ranked Big Ten team.

Sure, the best of the Big Ten might be the best in the country this season and head and shoulders above the best of the SEC. But what if they aren't? What if the Big Ten is trading on inflated expectations? What if the Big Ten isn't all that and a bag of chips this year?

In an attempt to answer that question, just for myself, the following is a plethora of info and comparisons I've collected this morning, almost like a stream-of-consciousness style college football data collection process. You've been warned...

The Big Ten currently has three teams ranked in the Top 5 of the final AP poll and a total of five teams in the Top 25. Iowa makes it a total of six teams in the committee's Top 25 ranking.
The SEC currently has only one team ranked in the Top 5 of the final AP poll and a total of seven teams in the Top 25. Tennessee makes it a total of eight teams in the Coaches' Poll Top 25 ranking.
On the other hand, the B1G only has three teams ranked in the top 14 while there are seven SEC teams in the top 14.

The B1G's three CFP Teams played a combined 6 different games (8 total) against teams ranking in the final Top 25 AP poll. Each team has averaged playing 2.67 ranked teams so far.
The SEC's five CFP Teams played a combined 18 different games (25 total) against teams ranking in the final Top 25 AP poll. Each team has averaged playing 5.00 ranked teams so far.

ESPN's FPI/Analytics has the following strength of schedule rankings for each of the B1G and SEC playoff teams, which includes the conference championship games but not the playoff games already played:
6. Alabama
12. Oklahoma
14. Oregon
15. Georgia
17. Texas A&M
25. Ohio State
28. Indiana
41. Ole Miss

ESPN's FPI Ranking currently has the following number of B1G and SEC teams in each category of its ranking:
Top 5: 3 B1G - 0 SEC
Top 10: 3 B1G - 3 SEC
Top 15: 4 B1G - 7 SEC
Top 25: 8 B1G - 10 SEC
Top 50: 10 B1G - 16 SEC
Bottom 86: 8 B1G - 0 SEC

SEC's Average FPI Ranking: 23.38 -- (6+8+10+12+13+14+15+19+21+25+26+32+36+41+47+49)/16
B1G's Average FPI Ranking: 39.44 -- (1+2+3+11+17+18+20+22+31+44+59+60+61+62+64+73+77+85)/18

B1G Top 25 (Final) Teams' Key OOC Games:
OSU 14 - Texas 7
Oregon 51 - James Madison 34
Notre Dame 34 - USC 24
Oklahoma 24 - Michigan 13
Iowa State 16 - Iowa 13
-- 2-3 Overall Record --

SEC Top 25 (Final) Teams' Key OOC Games:
Georgia 16 - Ga Tech 9
Ole Miss 45 - Tulane 10
Ole Miss 41 - Tulane 10
Texas A&M 41 - Notre Dame 40
Miami 10 - Texas A&M 3
Florida State 31 - Alabama 17
OSU 14 - Texas 7
Oklahoma 24 - Michigan 13
-- 5-3 Overall Record --

Oregon gave up 34 points to James Madison, who averaged scoring 37.1 points per game this season. Teams that held James Madison to fewer than 34 points:
Louisville (14)
Liberty (31)
Georgia State (14)
Louisiana (24)
Washington State (24)
Troy (31)

Michigan averaged scoring 27.6 points per game while giving up 18.7. They averaged gaining 6.29 yards per play, 5.51 yards per rush, and a 128.6 passing rating while giving up 4.77 yards per play, 3.10 yards per rush, and a passing rating of 123.93.
-- Against Oklahoma --
Score: Michigan 13 - Oklahoma 24
Yards Per Play: Michigan 5.14 - Oklahoma 7.16
Yards Per Rush: Michigan 4.56 - Oklahoma 3.5
Passing Rating: Michigan 87.20 - Oklahoma 132.30

Only Ohio State's defense performed better against Michigan than Oklahoma's defense in all four categories. The only other defense to perform better than Oklahoma's defense against Michigan in any of those four categories is USC, which held Michigan to 3.52 yards per rush in their win over the Wolverines.

Only Nebraska (27), USC (31), and Ohio State (27) scored more points against Michigan than Oklahoma. Only USC and Ohio State averaged more yards per play than Oklahoma. Only USC, Purdue, and Ohio State averaged more yards per rush than Oklahoma. Finally, only Nebraska, USC, Purdue, and Ohio State had a higher passing rating than Oklahoma.

Indiana has played 7 games at home and 6 games on the road or at a neutral site. Those six road games do include their two highest-rated opponents - but the overall record of those six opponents is 44-30, so it was a fairly average slate overall. However, their stats are noticeably different between those two sets of games:
-- Home vs Road/Neutral --
Scoring: 49.1 - 33.5
Yards Per Play: 7.53 - 6.52
Yards Per Rush: 5.82 - 5.06
Passing Rating: 208.09 - 152.27
Opponent Scoring: 8.4 - 13.7
Opponent Yards Per Play: 4.40 - 4.73
Opponent Yards Per Rush: 3.14 - 2.62
Opponent Passing Rating: 106.00 - 113.16

Given that there is no transitive property in college football, I don't believe there are any definitive conclusions that can be drawn here outside of the fact that we do need to play the games on the field to have any idea of where the dust will settle.

However, it's looking more like a coin flip than a sure thing, to me...
 
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I've made this point a few times, but the Big 10 teams have made the decision that they are not going to play quality competition outside of the conference with the exception of the traditional blue bloods OSU, Michigan and USC. Instead they are going to rest on the laurels of a nine game conference schedule that is very watered down when you consider how mismatched the top 1/3 of the conference is with the bottom 2/3. Couple that with the fact that there are 18 teams in the conference, and it is inevitable that the top 3 or 4 teams are going to have really good records by the end of the season. Not necessarily by virtue of having a great team, but because they are able to avoid having to play more than two to three top 25 caliber teams.

Oregon, for example, is viewed as a really good team. Ranked #5 in the final CFP ranking, but their best wins are Iowa and USC. Beyond that, they lost to Indiana and they beat Washington and Penn St. I'm not saying Oregon isn't good. I'm saying that their record is not necessarily indicative of how good they are or aren't.

Every team in the SEC has made the commitment, including Vanderbilt (with the exception of maybe Kentucky and Miss St.) that they are all in on making football a priority and whose goal is to make the playoffs every year. What that manifests is a brutal conference schedule. But conference schedule aside, the SEC plays way more big games outside the conference, and they are two teams smaller, which makes it look even worse for the Big 10.
 
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SEC's Average FPI Ranking: 20.31 -- (6+8+10+12+13+14+15+19+21+25+26+32+36+41+47)/16
B1G's Average FPI Ranking: 39.44 -- (1+2+3+11+17+18+20+22+31+44+59+60+61+62+64+73+77+85)/18
Click to expand...

You left out Mississippi State's ranking of 49 and are dividing the sum of 15 values by 16.
The SEC's mean ranking is 23.38 including MSU.

However, the arithmetic mean of an ordinal ranking is a bad measurement.
Median is a better measurement, in which SEC is 20, and B1G is 37.5

Either way, the middle-of-the-conference team is significantly weaker in the B1G.

We will find out in these playoffs how much of a mirage these FPI ranks are.
 
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uafan4life said:
I don't think there's any doubt that the Big Ten and the SEC are the two best conferences in college football this season. And, right now, most people think the two best teams in the country are from the Big Ten. Of course, we haven't yet had a lot of direct, on-the-field comparison between the top teams in these two conferences. The best SEC team a Big Ten team has beaten is only the sixth-highest-ranked SEC team. The best Big Ten team an SEC team has beaten is only the fifth-highest-ranked Big Ten team.

Sure, the best of the Big Ten might be the best in the country this season and head and shoulders above the best of the SEC. But what if they aren't? What if the Big Ten is trading on inflated expectations? What if the Big Ten isn't all that and a bag of chips this year?

In an attempt to answer that question, just for myself, the following is a plethora of info and comparisons I've collected this morning, almost like a stream-of-consciousness style college football data collection process. You've been warned...

The Big Ten currently has three teams ranked in the Top 5 of the final AP poll and a total of five teams in the Top 25. Iowa makes it a total of six teams in the committee's Top 25 ranking.
The SEC currently has only one team ranked in the Top 5 of the final AP poll and a total of seven teams in the Top 25. Tennessee makes it a total of eight teams in the Coaches' Poll Top 25 ranking.
On the other hand, the B1G only has three teams ranked in the top 14 while there are seven SEC teams in the top 14.

The B1G's three CFP Teams played a combined 6 different games (8 total) against teams ranking in the final Top 25 AP poll. Each team has averaged playing 2.67 ranked teams so far.
The SEC's five CFP Teams played a combined 18 different games (25 total) against teams ranking in the final Top 25 AP poll. Each team has averaged playing 5.00 ranked teams so far.

ESPN's FPI/Analytics has the following strength of schedule rankings for each of the B1G and SEC playoff teams, which includes the conference championship games but not the playoff games already played:
6. Alabama
12. Oklahoma
14. Oregon
15. Georgia
17. Texas A&M
25. Ohio State
28. Indiana
41. Ole Miss

ESPN's FPI Ranking currently has the following number of B1G and SEC teams in each category of its ranking:
Top 5: 3 B1G - 0 SEC
Top 10: 3 B1G - 3 SEC
Top 15: 4 B1G - 7 SEC
Top 25: 8 B1G - 10 SEC
Top 50: 10 B1G - 16 SEC
Bottom 86: 8 B1G - 0 SEC

SEC's Average FPI Ranking: 23.38 -- (6+8+10+12+13+14+15+19+21+25+26+32+36+41+47+49)/16
B1G's Average FPI Ranking: 39.44 -- (1+2+3+11+17+18+20+22+31+44+59+60+61+62+64+73+77+85)/18

B1G Top 25 (Final) Teams' Key OOC Games:
OSU 14 - Texas 7
Oregon 51 - James Madison 34
Notre Dame 34 - USC 24
Oklahoma 24 - Michigan 13
Iowa State 16 - Iowa 13
-- 2-3 Overall Record --

SEC Top 25 (Final) Teams' Key OOC Games:
Georgia 16 - Ga Tech 9
Ole Miss 45 - Tulane 10
Ole Miss 41 - Tulane 10
Texas A&M 41 - Notre Dame 40
Miami 10 - Texas A&M 3
Florida State 31 - Alabama 17
OSU 14 - Texas 7
Oklahoma 24 - Michigan 13
-- 5-3 Overall Record --

Oregon gave up 34 points to James Madison, who averaged scoring 37.1 points per game this season. Teams that held James Madison to fewer than 34 points:
Louisville (14)
Liberty (31)
Georgia State (14)
Louisiana (24)
Washington State (24)
Troy (31)

Michigan averaged scoring 27.6 points per game while giving up 18.7. They averaged gaining 6.29 yards per play, 5.51 yards per rush, and a 128.6 passing rating while giving up 4.77 yards per play, 3.10 yards per rush, and a passing rating of 123.93.
-- Against Oklahoma --
Score: Michigan 13 - Oklahoma 24
Yards Per Play: Michigan 5.14 - Oklahoma 7.16
Yards Per Rush: Michigan 4.56 - Oklahoma 3.5
Passing Rating: Michigan 87.20 - Oklahoma 132.30

Only Ohio State's defense performed better against Michigan than Oklahoma's defense in all four categories. The only other defense to perform better than Oklahoma's defense against Michigan in any of those four categories is USC, which held Michigan to 3.52 yards per rush in their win over the Wolverines.

Only Nebraska (27), USC (31), and Ohio State (27) scored more points against Michigan than Oklahoma. Only USC and Ohio State averaged more yards per play than Oklahoma. Only USC, Purdue, and Ohio State averaged more yards per rush than Oklahoma. Finally, only Nebraska, USC, Purdue, and Ohio State had a higher passing rating than Oklahoma.

Indiana has played 7 games at home and 6 games on the road or at a neutral site. Those six road games do include their two highest-rated opponents - but the overall record of those six opponents is 44-30, so it was a fairly average slate overall. However, their stats are noticeably different between those two sets of games:
-- Home vs Road/Neutral --
Scoring: 49.1 - 33.5
Yards Per Play: 7.53 - 6.52
Yards Per Rush: 5.82 - 5.06
Passing Rating: 208.09 - 152.27
Opponent Scoring: 8.4 - 13.7
Opponent Yards Per Play: 4.40 - 4.73
Opponent Yards Per Rush: 3.14 - 2.62
Opponent Passing Rating: 106.00 - 113.16

Given that there is no transitive property in college football, I don't believe there are any definitive conclusions that can be drawn here outside of the fact that we do need to play the games on the field to have any idea of where the dust will settle.

However, it's looking more like a coin flip than a sure thing, to me...
Click to expand...
Mad respect for digging up these stats.

Lots of eye-catching info, but perhaps the one that stood out the most to me is this one:

Bottom 86: 8 B1G - 0 SEC

We know the B1G is top heavy and the SEC has more quality top to bottom, but that line right there perhaps shows HOW teams like Indy, TOSA and the Ducks have such a shiny resume.

Your conclusion, I think, is correct. It's more of a toss up than most folks think.
 
Really great work. Thanks. Saw that ESPN gives Indiana a 71% chance of winning. I'm in the camp of we really don't know what they have. In the spirit of the OP I offer the following:

I spent some time digging through Indiana's 'big' games...mostly Oregon, OSU, Iowa, PSU. Three of those wins by 3 points, 3 points, five points. The 10 point win at Oregon is impressive. They blew out all the pansies but were not dominant at all against their better competition.

They give up a lot of sacks and TFLs to good teams but Mendoza won the Heismann despite that. He must be pretty good. They don't play down to the level of the competition.

I suspect that Oregon wasn't really taking Indiana seriously at that point. IU had played four horrible teams plus a real struggle against Iowa. At that point they were just Indiana.

The B1G championship had OSU coming off a big game on the road against #18 Michigan (Day's nemesis). Indiana was coming off a big game against (2-10) Purdue. Indiana got a 3 point win in Indianapolis after OSU missed a 27 yard field goal.

We won't really know until the dust settles after the Rose Bowl but we shouldn't give up just yet.
 
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Bama9001 said:
Really great work. Thanks. Saw that ESPN gives Indiana a 71% chance of winning. I'm in the camp of we really don't know what they have. In the spirit of the OP I offer the following:

I spent some time digging through Indiana's 'big' games...mostly Oregon, OSU, Iowa, PSU. Three of those wins by 3 points, 3 points, five points. The 10 point win at Oregon is impressive. They blew out all the pansies but were not dominant at all against their better competition.

They give up a lot of sacks and TFLs to good teams but Mendoza won the Heismann despite that. He must be pretty good. They don't play down to the level of the competition.

I suspect that Oregon wasn't really taking Indiana seriously at that point. IU had played four horrible teams plus a real struggle against Iowa. At that point they were just Indiana.

The B1G championship had OSU coming off a big game on the road against #18 Michigan (Day's nemesis). Indiana was coming off a big game against (2-10) Purdue. Indiana got a 3 point win in Indianapolis after OSU missed a 27 yard field goal.

We won't really know until the dust settles after the Rose Bowl but we shouldn't give up just yet.
Click to expand...
I rewatched the B1GCG a couple of days ago.

I don't know how TOSU didn't score more points. They moved the ball freely on them betwen the 20's, but just struggled to turn it into points. As you stated, they missed a chip shot to tie it late.

It looked like a clash of two superpowers, but, I asked the question yesterday (and now this thread shows up) "Is TOSU really as good as everyone thinks???"

It's probably some where in the middle. Indy is not a bad team, but they played a soft schedule in a soft conference. TOSY is probably better than they looked in the championship game; similar to how we are better than we looked against Georgia in ATL.

But the nagging question is, "How deep/solid is the B1G 10?

10 is probably more like 2.5!
 
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The fact that IU was 3-9 before CFC took over and then goes 11-whatever speaks to how bad the football is in the Big Ten outside of a couple of teams. It would be very unlikely to have a similar turnaround in the SEC.
 
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From what I've seen of Indiana (not all that much outside of the Oregon and Northwestern games), they appear to play as well as anyone, no matter where they play. They have had moments of inconsistency, but still manage to win. Alabama's moments of inconsistency, far more frequent, have resulted in 3 losses, 2 of which by a decent margin. Alabama didn't look good at all in it's three losses, and 2 of the wins looked very suspicious as well (SCAR and LSU). Honestly, we did not look sharp offensively at all against LSU.

The defense has looked more than capable of title contention. Indiana is about the face the best defense it has all year that isn't named Ohio State. This will be their biggest challenge, after a month off from live play, and with the anxiety that comes along with being first timers on this big of a stage. I don't think it will be a stage too big for Cignetti; he's been on the sidelines for title games before (as an assistant at Bama). But the players are who are called on to execute, and I wonder how they can perform.

Great analysis, uafan4life. Based on body of work, I lean toward Indiana having the edge. But playoffs all begin with everyone being 0-0. Alabama is now 1-0.
 
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I wonder how much sitting for the last 3 weeks will help/hurt Indy. They were playing at a pretty high level coming off the biggest win of the year for them.

We needed the time after Georgia to heal and it sounds like we are getting as healthy as we were at mid-season.
 
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Agree Oregon hasn’t really beaten anyone great. An OT win over six loss Penn State a close win at Iowa …and USC are best wins . But, the fact is Oregon is loaded with NFL talent, ala OSU, Georgia, Bama.
They are expected to have 3, maybe 4 first rounders and a couple more second rounders. Add a good coach, and yes, despite an easy schedule, I wouldn’t take them lightly.
 
BamaMoon said:
I wonder how much sitting for the last 3 weeks will help/hurt Indy. They were playing at a pretty high level coming off the biggest win of the year for them.

We needed the time after Georgia to heal and it sounds like we are getting as healthy as we were at mid-season.
Click to expand...

For all the huff and puff about Mendoza, in his games versus actual good teams, he had 6 TDs and 5 INT.
 
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