Remember that the stars are given by nerdy recruiting sites. Its the coaches evaluations that truly count.
Offseason Thoughts on The State of The Program
- Thread starter 4Q Basket Case
- Start date
No doubt the program was slipping near the end of Saban's tenure, but one thing that did not happen during that downward span was the team showing up completely unprepared for multiple games in a single season.
To me, that is the most concerning thing I have seen since DeBoer arrived at Bama.
Remember that the stars are given by nerdy recruiting sites. Its the coaches evaluations that truly count.
And it also seems that as soon as a 3 star gets a bunch of offers from major powers their rankings miraculously move up into the 4 star range.
This strategy is the only way to do it without repricing the lockerroom each recruiting cycle...
Amen. If we are prepared, play well in every phase of the game that we don't have major injuries affecting us, and fight for 60 minutes... I'm much less worried if we lose a close one. Particularly in this era where you are facing lots of teams with star players.
I think the retention strategy is reasonable. We don't need to exhaust our NIL chasing a mirage like I think many teams are doing. Manage it and take our opportunities when they present. I think other schools will eventually find the well is running dry.
I still don’t think that we, collectively as a fan base, truly grasp how spoiled we were under CNS.
CKD has lost 8 games in his first two seasons. His average record in two seasons is 10-4.
CNS lost 8 games total in a five-season stretch from 2008-2012 and won 3 national titles in that same stretch en route to a 12-2 average record. No one this century, save perhaps Urban Meyer at Florida, and possibly Kirby a few years back, has even been in the ballpark of this type of run. And then CNS one-upped himself in 2015-2020, going 79-6 with 3 more national titles and an average record of 13-1. No one in the modern history of CFB is in the same galaxy as this - Ryan Day perhaps, record-wise, but with less hardware and some embarrassing losses to OSU’s biggest rival.
And yet, CKD’s accomplishments in two seasons include:
5-1 combined record against Auburn, LSU and Tennessee
7-2 combined record against Auburn, LSU, Tennessee and Georgia (2-1 head-to-head against Kirby)
6-3 combined record against other SEC foes for a conference record of 13-5
Finished #1 overall in the final 2025 regular season conference standings
Won a 1st round playoff game in a hostile road environment
95% of CFB is envious of our results the last two seasons, to the point that some of the bluest of bloods in the sport tried very hard to lure CKD away from Bama.
The head-scratching losses to unranked teams are embarrassing, as was the thumping by IU- but consider that Kirby lost at home to Vandy early in his tenure. CNS lost at home to UAB early in his tenure at LSU. Sark got clocked against Arkansas early on at Texas. Lanning’s first game at Oregon was a 49-0 loss to UGA. Cristobal lost by 14 points at home to MTSU his first year at Miami. And CKD’s combined career record against Sark, Lanning and Kirby is 7-1.
He was 100% the best available, realistic option in 2024. He’s still IMO a top 5 coach in the country. CNS had us past the Karman line for lengthy stretches and those days are over - not just for us, but for basically anyone in today’s game.
In year 3, I’d like to see losses to inferior teams come to an end, but otherwise I think CKD has been an excellent hire and I’m glad our AD understands this. We could have done far, far worse. Some of y’all spent so much time in the stratosphere that you forgot what things were like with the Mikes - and I can assure you, as someone who cut my teeth on Bama football during that era, that this ain’t it.
Cignetti looks awfully good right now and I know that’s where a lot of this is coming from, but call me when he sustains it for 5 years. I think he ends up being more of a Larry Coker / Gene Chizik “lightning in a bottle” coach. His old-school approach is appealing, until he doesn’t have a roster of 25 year-olds that have played together for six years. I think he regresses to the mean over the next year or two, even with Mark Cuban’s money.
JMO and I’ve certainly been wrong before.
CKD has lost 8 games in his first two seasons. His average record in two seasons is 10-4.
CNS lost 8 games total in a five-season stretch from 2008-2012 and won 3 national titles in that same stretch en route to a 12-2 average record. No one this century, save perhaps Urban Meyer at Florida, and possibly Kirby a few years back, has even been in the ballpark of this type of run. And then CNS one-upped himself in 2015-2020, going 79-6 with 3 more national titles and an average record of 13-1. No one in the modern history of CFB is in the same galaxy as this - Ryan Day perhaps, record-wise, but with less hardware and some embarrassing losses to OSU’s biggest rival.
And yet, CKD’s accomplishments in two seasons include:
5-1 combined record against Auburn, LSU and Tennessee
7-2 combined record against Auburn, LSU, Tennessee and Georgia (2-1 head-to-head against Kirby)
6-3 combined record against other SEC foes for a conference record of 13-5
Finished #1 overall in the final 2025 regular season conference standings
Won a 1st round playoff game in a hostile road environment
95% of CFB is envious of our results the last two seasons, to the point that some of the bluest of bloods in the sport tried very hard to lure CKD away from Bama.
The head-scratching losses to unranked teams are embarrassing, as was the thumping by IU- but consider that Kirby lost at home to Vandy early in his tenure. CNS lost at home to UAB early in his tenure at LSU. Sark got clocked against Arkansas early on at Texas. Lanning’s first game at Oregon was a 49-0 loss to UGA. Cristobal lost by 14 points at home to MTSU his first year at Miami. And CKD’s combined career record against Sark, Lanning and Kirby is 7-1.
He was 100% the best available, realistic option in 2024. He’s still IMO a top 5 coach in the country. CNS had us past the Karman line for lengthy stretches and those days are over - not just for us, but for basically anyone in today’s game.
In year 3, I’d like to see losses to inferior teams come to an end, but otherwise I think CKD has been an excellent hire and I’m glad our AD understands this. We could have done far, far worse. Some of y’all spent so much time in the stratosphere that you forgot what things were like with the Mikes - and I can assure you, as someone who cut my teeth on Bama football during that era, that this ain’t it.
Cignetti looks awfully good right now and I know that’s where a lot of this is coming from, but call me when he sustains it for 5 years. I think he ends up being more of a Larry Coker / Gene Chizik “lightning in a bottle” coach. His old-school approach is appealing, until he doesn’t have a roster of 25 year-olds that have played together for six years. I think he regresses to the mean over the next year or two, even with Mark Cuban’s money.
JMO and I’ve certainly been wrong before.
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I know we all agree that the running game needs to improve. The question is, "how much" does it need to improve to where it's not a liability to the overall offense? FWIW, one of the Bama podcast guys (IIRC), did a deep dive into some successful offenses that tended to pass the ball successfully, and the amount those running games produced was not as high as the average message board enthusiast (like me) would think. IOW, the mark of improvement to the running game didn't sound as difficult as we may think.
For instance, it really isn't about a certain "average rushing for game" mark as some may think, but it's more about being able to be successful in short yardage situations and being able to salt games away, controlling the clock.
I know that is probably the biggest area of improvement we'd all like to see. Bama should never lose to an inferior opponent because we didn't show up.
But I wonder if, once again, we are falling for the Saban comparison even in this phase of assessing CKD. For instance, when CNS was coaching at MSU or LSU much earlier in his career, did he ever have some "stinker" games?
In digging around on the web, there's some evidence to show that was the case.
Again, unfortunately for CKD, anytime he's compared to CNS, he's being compared not only as Alabama's coach but also he's being compared to arguably the best-ever (GOAT) college football coach. TIFWIW!
Just looking at roughly the 8 teams or so that finished higher than us last year to be where they are wrt to the Running game alone we need to increase production by at least 900 to 1000 yards and increase the YPC by 1 to 1.5 YPC
That’s just to get us into the Top 50-75 Rushing offenses at least where all those teams were at last year.
I agree TOP is important and short yardage too but we really need to improve by a lot in all situations.
We were 105th in yardage and 126th in YPC.
3rd and Short we were 104th
TOP was actually way better than I would have guessed at 27th
I am optimistic we get better but we had some historically bad running numbers.
So even to get into a modest range of 50-75th in the country we need to be a night and day difference better.
I hope things gel some the 1st month and we can get some confidence in that area going into Oct
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If I recall, the deep dive compared some championship teams and many of them were middle of the pack in rushing yardage despite winning a trophy.
That's the goal, make the running game successful enough to win. Yes, we need more yards from the rushing offense than last year, yes, we need more short-yardage conversions, but at the end of the day, it's about marrying the run game to the passing game so that the relationship between the two equals wins!
Last year, it didn't. I'm hoping this year will be different!
AND, let's face it, much of this will fall on the new starting QB. If he can successfully throw the ball in this offense and become a "threat," that factor alone will give the rushing offense some momentum. And remember this: Before TY got hurt last year, despite the OL and RB deficiencies, we did OK up until he was injured and then he could not put pressure on the defense downfield. It made a big difference!
Thanks for the research!
To me, it's not so much a question of rushing stats as it is the ability to run when we want to or when we have to. Especially against SEC competition.
For the last few years now, 3rd or 4th and 3 was a passing down. I can't remember the last time we ran up the gut for 3 or 4 yards on 3rd and short against a decent SEC team.
If we ran for 100 yards, but averaged 4 yards a carry and converted 5 possession-and-3 or less on the ground, without necessarily getting a 50+ yard breakaway to pad the stats, I'd be happy.
If we ran for 150 yards, but 70 was on a single run and we got stuffed on a half-dozen possession-and- short downs, I wouldn't be happy.
And yeah, on a separate topic, just not showing up in several games has been a problem. No way should we have lost to FSU or OU at all. And no way we should have lost to UGA or Indiana the way we did.
In the first two, we had the better team and just yakked up a hairball. In the last two, it wasn't the loss so much as it was we were totally outclassed in every aspect of the game. UGA and Indiana were just better than us. But they weren't as much better as those games looked.
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My thoughts exactly... The future is no longer 3 yards and a cloud of dust, but a solid running game that is productive and can get some tough yards. A complement to the passing game. We were already doing this under CNS from 2020 on.
We have just been deplorable the last two years. Really, I think the overall quality of our ground game has plummeted since Najee graduated in 2020.
We must do better. A solid grinding maybe 140ish yards a game is good.
Najee was certainly a big part of that. But here's the starting 2020 OL, from Left Tackle to Right Tackle and TE
Alex Leatherwood - Deonte Brown - Landon Dickerson - Emil Ekiyor - Evan Neal - Miller Forristall
Even an average back would get good stats behind those guys, and Najee was far better than average.
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Not to quibble, but Brob gained almost 1400 yds the year after Najee and I think Gibbs was very good the year after that. But it’s sure been God awful since then.
The OL is definitely important. And dang... Completely forgot B Rob who is a solid dude as well!
I think in general we've just seen a slide over the past 5 years that must be reversed asap.
As a critic of CKD, Honestly, Im gonna give him alot more leeway this year because of all the Changes he made in the offseason.
Obviously we aint going 12-0, but if we are 9-3 10-2 that would be "OK" with me with all the turnover on staff and locker room.
Some of those Losses were just flat out inexcusable the last two years, if we are gonna loose, at least remain competitive.
Obviously we aint going 12-0, but if we are 9-3 10-2 that would be "OK" with me with all the turnover on staff and locker room.
Some of those Losses were just flat out inexcusable the last two years, if we are gonna loose, at least remain competitive.
I posted a breakdown back in Dec that I think one person read but what the hay I’ll share it again…lol
“
In 2020 Najee ran for 1,466 Yards and 26 TD’s.
In 2021 Brob ran for 1,343 and 14 TD’s
In 2022 Gibbs just missed the mark at 926 yards but Jase also had 655 yards and as a team we actually rushed for more than either the 2020 or 2021 team. It was just spread out.
In 2023 Jase ran for 890 and Roydell 460 and #4 for 530. As a team we had 2,400 yards rushing which is 2nd only to 2022 this decade.
2024 is where the real decline began. Not a single RB with more than 700 yards.
2025 we don’t have a single warm body with 500 yards rushing and only have 1,500 yards rushing on the season.
We haven’t had a season this bad running the ball since the 2000 team that lost to UCLA at #3 and only won 3 games.
Even in the CNS ‘decline’ years we had strong and respectable running games with strong RB1s or RB1 A/B’s”
To re-elaborate on why I have positive feelings on the new OL coach I shared this info in Jan
“
He’s produced some positive results in CFB from what I can see.
I don’t care about whatever happened in the NFL because it’s almost a different game.
He had 4 pretty solid years at UCLA and another at Oregon wrt to Running the Ball
2012 - 2,671 Yards Rushing at 4.6 YPC and 29 TD’s. RB1 Had 1,700+ Yards at 6.0 YPC
2013 - 2,556 Yards Rushing at 4.7 YPC and 36 TD’s. RB by Committee with 3 guys over 500 yards
2014 - 2,724 Yards Rushing at 5.0 YPC and 26 TD’s. RB1 had 1,500+ Yards at 6.3 YPC
2015 - 2,299 Yards Rushing at 5.3 YPC and 26 TD’s. RB1 had 1,300+ Yards at 5.7 YPC
2016 - Dumpster Fire year for UCLA - Terrible at everything. Don’t look LOL
2022 - 2,805 Yards Rushing at 5.7 YPC and 34 TD’s. By Committee with a 1,000 yard RB and a 700 Yard RB and Nix at QB with 500 yards.
Oregon was also #1 in the NCAA that year for least sacks allowed.
I don’t know much else about him or if PAC-12 Success transfers.
But the statistical results are encouraging and leagues better than what we had going on in 2025.
So fingers crossed the success translates.”
All of that still seems promising as long as we did a good job selecting our new OL from the Portal.
“
He’s produced some positive results in CFB from what I can see.
I don’t care about whatever happened in the NFL because it’s almost a different game.
He had 4 pretty solid years at UCLA and another at Oregon wrt to Running the Ball
2012 - 2,671 Yards Rushing at 4.6 YPC and 29 TD’s. RB1 Had 1,700+ Yards at 6.0 YPC
2013 - 2,556 Yards Rushing at 4.7 YPC and 36 TD’s. RB by Committee with 3 guys over 500 yards
2014 - 2,724 Yards Rushing at 5.0 YPC and 26 TD’s. RB1 had 1,500+ Yards at 6.3 YPC
2015 - 2,299 Yards Rushing at 5.3 YPC and 26 TD’s. RB1 had 1,300+ Yards at 5.7 YPC
2016 - Dumpster Fire year for UCLA - Terrible at everything. Don’t look LOL
2022 - 2,805 Yards Rushing at 5.7 YPC and 34 TD’s. By Committee with a 1,000 yard RB and a 700 Yard RB and Nix at QB with 500 yards.
Oregon was also #1 in the NCAA that year for least sacks allowed.
I don’t know much else about him or if PAC-12 Success transfers.
But the statistical results are encouraging and leagues better than what we had going on in 2025.
So fingers crossed the success translates.”
All of that still seems promising as long as we did a good job selecting our new OL from the Portal.
Shewwee, just read through this entire thread and what a gem. Good stuff guys. Just gave the media types at least 2 to 3 writeups worth of perspective to help them make their living. I am sure they are grateful.
I think the state of the program is as good as it could be really. We have a good coach, good players and infrastructure second to none. Plus, we have the best fans. The shifting sands of the sport in terms of money and rules is the overall problem (surely in part a product of our success through the Saban years - total Bama fatigue). The Indiana blueprint gives hope that not only the richest teams will dominate in the future but still, hard to predict the path of this thing.
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