0-15 After the Third Quarter?

[Bama Contractor]

Did I see the stat correct on CBS that showed CMS is 0-15 when behind at the end of the third quarter? That stat surprised me. Any comments?

 

[bamanut_aj]

the stat is correct and it's definitely a problem we need to correct. that's all I really know to say about it. It's definitely an ugly statistic.

 

[Salty Dog @ Work]

That stat says more about our lack of depth than just about any other stat I've seen. In the 4th Quarter, when we really need to kick it in high gear, we haven't been able to. We don't have an excess of guys who can give the 1st team a break without causing a big drop-off in performance.

 

[BamaJoe]

that is 0-16 now

 

[tidefan39817]

that is 0-16 now

bad thing is...I can remember in the 92 season we started raising the four fingers...like every team in the SEC or nation does now. when asked about it one of the defensive guys responded "it means Bama owns the forth quarter, it's time to shut them down"....I think remembering that is one of the things that the 0-16 when trailing after 3 is what bothers me the most.

 

[briancm]

I thought it was 0-14 when we started the FL game, that would make it 0-15 now.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Combine that with the seeming inability (this season) to make 2nd half adjustments and it could be a long season...

 

[stlimprov]

I seem to be having difficulty finding a source (quarter by quarter scores over several years) to compile some other stats that would give this more depth.

Namely:

-how does this compare to other coaches/programs over a similar time frame. What is the overall winning % for teams that trail going into the 4th quarter? It would probably also be usefull to break this down by the amount of the lead going into the 4th quarter.
-what is the record for just the 4th quarter? There are plenty of reasons why a team might "win" the 4th quarter but not the game, but this would be something that might put the other stat in perspective. For example, if your team goes into the 4th down by 13, scores a touchdown and is throwing into the endzone on the last play, it doesn't suggest that your team ran out of gas.

 

[NYBamaFan]

I thought it was 0-14 when we started the FL game, that would make it 0-15 now.

CBS said 0-14 going into the 4th, so (if they were correct) we would now be 0-15.

Good reasons cited above. Not sure what to say other than it is a real problem, but not one that is addressed directly. You correct this problem by correcting the other problems that we face...

 

[LTBamaFan]

I don't have exact numbers, but I believe Bama led at halftime in the majority of those losses. Does this indicate that opposing coaches make better halftime adjustments?
CMS and the Players say we are getting real close and maybe so, but last I heard was that close only counts in Horseshoes and hand grenades.

 

[Billie Bob]

the stat is correct and it's definitely a problem we need to correct. that's all I really know to say about it. It's definitely an ugly statistic.

One of the worst stats associated with Alabama football I've seen.

 

[NYBamaFan]

I don't have exact numbers, but I believe Bama led at halftime in the majority of those losses. Does this indicate that opposing coaches make better halftime adjustments?
CMS and the Players say we are getting real close and maybe so, but last I heard was that close only counts in Horseshoes and hand grenades.

This is something that I have not heard. Where did the info come from?

 

[madamesnapper]

One of the worst stats associated with Alabama football I've seen.

Funny, I thought the statistic where we lost 25 scholarships was the worst stat associated with Alabama football...and probably has more than a little to do with our current lack of depth and third quarter finishes. Not an excuse, just a fact.

We have some exceptional athletes and guys that play with lots of heart. We just don't have enough of them.

 

[stlimprov]

For what it's worth, from a quick look at AL box scores:
(Games that went to OT are counted as ties here; all 4 OT games resulted in losses)
Overall: 23-15-4, 12-11-4 SEC
Going into 4th: 24-15-3
Only 4th: 23-6-13

*End result when going into the 4th with a lead: 22-1-2, 11-0-0 SEC

Note that this stat is the converse of the stat given at the start of this thread. If Alabama's results are not abnormal, it would indicate that which ever team is trailing at the beginning of the 4th quarter stands a very poor chance of winning the game. Note the SEC record.

Over the same time period, Auburn is
35-7-1 overall
35-1, 24-1 SEC when leading after 3 quarters
1-6-1, 1-2-1 SEC when trailing after 3 quarters (win and ot were against LSU)

Florida
28-12-1 overall
26-4-1, 15-3-1 SEC when leading after 3
2-7, 2-5 SEC when trailing after 3

(source of boxscores: http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/teamsched?teamId=333)

 

[CrimsonDuck]

3 of our past 4 losses have been after leading at the half. 10-0 vs. LSU, 10-3 vs. Arkansas, and 10-7 vs. Florida.

 

[CrimsonJag]

0-15 when trailing after three quarters says a lot.

Crimson-colored glasses or not, it does.

 

[crimsonaudio]

3 of our past 4 losses have been after leading at the half. 10-0 vs. LSU, 10-3 vs. Arkansas, and 10-7 vs. Florida.

That sounds like one of two things (or a combination of the two): lack of *experienced* depth and lack of/poor half-time adjustments.

 

[NYBamaFan]

I don't have exact numbers, but I believe Bama led at halftime in the majority of those losses. Does this indicate that opposing coaches make better halftime adjustments?
CMS and the Players say we are getting real close and maybe so, but last I heard was that close only counts in Horseshoes and hand grenades.

I found the halftime scores for all but one of the 15 losses where we were trailing going into the 4th under Shula. Can't get the info for the 2003 loss to Ole Miss. Our score is on the left for each game. We were ahead at half 6 of these 14 games...

2003
Oklahoma 3-13
NIU 9-5
Georgia 10-37
LSU 0-17
Auburn 2-18
2004
Arkansas 10-14
USC 3-6
TN 10-14
LSU 10-6
Auburn 6-0
Minn 17-14
2005
Auburn 7-28
2006
Arkansas 10-3
Florida 10-7

 

[bamaslammer]

I think this stat speaks more to the effects of probation than anything else.

 

[stlimprov]

From just a quick look around, it doesn't really speak to anything. It looks like the winning % for any decent team leading after the 3rd is around 85-90%. Given that, the best you could reasonably hope Shula's record to be would be about 2-13, and I doubt that 2 games over 4 years is going to be outside of the margin of chance (i.e. a bounce, a bad call, etc.). Given that in at least 2 of those years he really didn't have an average amount of talent with which to compete, his numbers in this regard are right about where they ought to be.