PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES VS ATLANTA BRAVES NLCS PREVIEW
The Atlanta Braves, baseball's most accomplished team over the last three seasons, are missing one accomplishment to complete the checklist. They hope the third time is the charm, and they have bet heavily on the present with the free agent acquisition of Greg Maddux last December. And with minor leaguers Chipper Jones, Ryan Klesko, Mike Kelly, and Javier Lopez - and those are just the more famous names, there's even more riches down on the farm than those - Atlanta should be a contender for years to come. Meanwhile, in the other dugout is almost the exact same team that went 70-92 last year but somehow - mostly through solid hitting - tore out to a huge division lead, were never seriously challenged, and won 97 games while scoring more runs than any team other than the Detroit Tigers while giving up 23 more runs than they did in 1992. Indeed, a look at Philadelphia's team suggests they have followed the path of a number of past surprise pennant winners like the 1961 Reds: three everyday players improve, one or two young players arrive and play well, one or two guys have career years. And a factor that wasn't around in 1961, free agency, can help, and the Phillies did improve their roster with three solid free agent signings: pitcher Larry Anderson and outfielders Jim Eisenreich and Milt Thompson.
It might be a decent series, or it might be a mismatch. One team's virtue appears to be they score a lot of runs because they have no other choice. The other team has a better pitching staff, both starting and relieving, a much better defense, hits more home runs, steals more bases, and an argument can be made that their offense is really better but the numbers don't show it because the Braves struggled offensively until acquiring Fred McGriff.
Overview:
There are simply no secrets about the Atlanta Braves. They have the best pitching staff in baseball, and if it continues for a few years, it may well go down in history as the greatest of all-time. With a league-leading ERA of 3.14 while playing half of their games in what is now the second easiest home run park in the majors (behind Mile High Stadium in Denver), Atlanta's pitching is a sight to behold. And while their bullpen has yet to attain a lights out reliable closer, the Braves, using bullpen by committee, have managed to piece together the exact same number of saves as the Phillies do (46) relying on Mitch "Wild Thing" Williams. The Braves also have an outstanding defensive team that made the second fewest errors in the National League. Offensively, their season-long numbers do not compare with Philadelphia, but the Braves are a completely different team since the acquisition of Fred McGriff. In their first 94 games, the Braves scored 375 runs, a horrid total of 3.98 runs per game. Since the tall lefty arrived complete with a fire on July 20, the Braves have ripped out 392 runs, raising their total to 5.76 runs per game, a number no other team even comes close to reaching (the Tigers as noted had the best total for the year at 5.55 rpg). The Braves lead the National League in home runs, and while critics would probably dismiss that total as inflated due to the ballpark, the Braves hit more home runs ON THE ROAD (91) than they did in the Launching Pad (78).
The Phillies arrive with the best offense in the National League. They score - a lot. Their league batting average is second behind San Francisco, and they're the best at getting on base. They don't steal very often and yet they don't ground into many double plays, either. Their solid .274 batting average is despite the fact they strike out a lot. Their defense is average at best, but part of this can be chalked up to playing their home games on the turf at Veterans Stadium. Their pitching staff has records that look quite dazzling but with jaw dropping ERAs. Curt Schilling, the staff ace, appears ready to blossom as he went 16-7, but his ERA was 4.02. Tommy Greene, who came over from Atlanta in the Dale Murphy trade in 1990, was a solid 16-4 with a 3.42 ERA, but he also got six runs of support per game. Give Greg Maddux - or pretty much any Atlanta starter - the run support Greene got and the Braves might well have had THREE 30-game winners. The Phillies score a lot because they have to score a lot. And they will have to make the most of their chances to have a chance to beat the Braves. The bullpen numbers at first sight would appear to favor the Phillies because they have a closer with 43 saves in 50 chances, but have you seen Mitch Williams pitch? It's a tightrope walk even when Philadelphia wins the game, and he's far from a lights out closer. But he's all they have.
The two teams split the season series with six wins apiece. Half of those games are before McGriff and half are afterwards, but there's also the fact the Braves were in more of a "must win" mode than Philly ever was. Atlanta is a sizzling 60-24 since July 1, while the Phillies are an average 45-40 over the same span.
Position by Position Analysis (Phillies Players Listed First)
Catcher - Darren Daulton vs Damon Berryhill/Greg Olson
An argument can be made that Daulton is Philly's best batter at the plate. While his .257 batting average isn't stellar, the guy gets on base a lot (.392 OBP), walks a lot, and leads the team in dingers with 24. And despite being a catcher, and thus presumed slow, Daulton only grounded into two double plays all year. His sole deficiency on offense is he strikes out a lot (111 times). Defensively, Daulton is as good as any catcher in the NL. Atlanta's combination of Damon Berryhill and Greg Olson isn't even in the same solar system
Edge: Phillies (big)
First Base - John Kruk vs Fred McGriff
John Kruk may not look like an athlete, but he most assuredly does play like a ballplayer. His solid .316 batting average and an OBP a tad higher than McGriff, but the Crime Dog has hit 2.5 times as many bombs as the "looks like a slow pitch softball player" who fears Randy Johnson has (37-14). And McGriff is smooth in the field at first while Kruk plays defense about as he looks. And that favors Atlanta.
Edge: Braves
Second Base - Mickey Morandini vs Mark Lemke
These guys are pretty much the same player, .250 average batters with low home run totals. Lemke is the better fielder and that puts him over the top.
Edge: Braves
Shortstop - Kevin Stocker vs Jeff Blauser/Rafael Belliard
Rookie Stocker had a solid half season in the big leagues while Blauser finally broke through last year as the full-time starter. Blauser's bat has never been the issue, his fielding has always been the concern. But he has improved on defense and leaves game late for "Pac Man" Belliard to scoop up everything near him flawlessly. If Stocker was a veteran, he'd own this category, but he has yet to be seen by teams a second time after they've adjusted.
Edge: Braves
Third Base - Dave Hollins vs Terry Pendleton
These guys are almost mirror images of each other offensively. Hollins hit one point higher with one more homer, but he also played his home games on turf. Hollins also walks a lot more, but he strikes out a little more. Offensively, they're even. Defensively, though, it's no contest. Pendleton has won three Gold Gloves for his defense and two of those were on the hard turf in St Louis. Pendleton turned 33 this year and has lost a step and needs to lose a few pounds, but it's Hollins who gets pulled late for a defensive replacement. And Pendleton has played in four World Series and many pressure pennant race games; Hollins hasn't.
Edge: Braves
Right Field - Jim Eisenreich vs David Justice
Jim Eisenreich has a .318 batting average in 362 at bats this year. And despite that good number, this one isn't even close. Justice is going to strike out more, but he has 33 more homers than the courageous Eisenreich, who is best-known for his battle with Tourette's syndrome. Eisenreich is better defensively, but how often does the defense of the right fielder matter? Even if it does, it doesn't make up for the Grand Canyon between their offensive numbers.
Edge: Braves (huge)
Center Field - Lenny Dykstra vs Otis Nixon
Otis Nixon is a solid and speedy presence in the Atlanta outfield and he has, from time to time, been the catalyst of the team, able to reach base and make things happen on the basepaths. He's also made a catch or two for the all-time highlight reel. But Lenny Dykstra is a solid .300 hitter with base stealing capability who seems like a throwback, and he's come up big in the postseason before (the walkoff in Game Three of the 1986 NLCS). Nixon is a good player but past his prime. Dykstra is a very good player in his prime.
Edge: Phillies
Left Field - Milt Thompson vs Ron Gant
Gant missed by four steals having his third 30-30 season. How rare? Only Mickey Mantle and Bobby Bonds have pulled it off previously. Gant and Thompson were teammates in the minors years ago when Gant was an infielder, and now he largely has the job Thompson had before he was traded to the Phillies in 1985. Thompson was traded to St Louis and came back. He's a good player, but he's not Ron Gant nor does he have his post-season experience.
Edge: Braves
Starting Staff
If you thought some of the other comparison were mismatches, you haven't seen anything yet. The Atlanta Braves go with a four-man rotation consisting of two Cy Young winners and the last two NLCS MVPs, and on any one day, any one of their starters might be either the best pitcher on the staff and sometimes the best in baseball. The Braves will alternate lefty and righty each day so the Phillies won't be able to get too comfortable. Philadelphia's best pitcher - and that's far from certain - would be a fifth starter at best on Atlanta. And one can argue over which starter actually is the best. Is it Curt Schilling (16-7, 4.02 ERA)? What about Tommy Green (16-4, 3.42)? Or could it possibly be Terry Mulholland (12-9, 3.25)? When it comes to postseason experience, it will be hard to beat Danny Jackson, who already has been an important starter on two World Series winners (1985 Royals, 1990 Reds). But it should hardly matter. Philadelphia's pitchers have high ERAs, and Atlanta has a powerful offense. Greene's stellar record has to be viewed in light of the fact he's been given some of the best run support in baseball this year for a starting pitcher.
Edge: Braves (huge)
Relief Staff
You look right away and see Mitch Williams has 43 saves, and you figure Atlanta's bullpen doesn't have a closer. But Philly only has 46 total saves - the exact same number as the Braves - and Atlanta has had three different closers this year, guys who held it for awhile and then went off the deep end. Mike Stanton was the closer for the first 1/3 of the season, and he saved 19 contests in Atlanta's first 54 games. But he began blowing saves left and right - six on the year - and he saved his last game at the end of July. Rookie Greg McMichael took over and converted 19 saves in 20 starts with a 2.06 ERA. Despite not having a blazing fastball, he's been good enough. Mark Wohlers again tried - and failed - to secure the relief role, but he's a fireballer. If he ever gets control of the strike zone, he can be a star. Think about it: Mitch Williams blew 7 saves by himself; the Braves blew 12, but their current closer only blew one. Despite his childish antics or perhaps because of them, even the bullpen matchup favors the Braves due to the volatility of Williams. The Braves, after all, have beaten him before.
Edge: Braves (slight)
Bench
So who's coming in? Behind Deion Sanders, who hit a whopping .533 in last year's World Series, there's not much except defensive replacements. Philadelphia has a slugger (Pete Incaviglia) and a solid hitter (Ricky Jordan) and a defense about the same as the one Atlanta would put on in late innings with exception of Belliard.
Edge: Phillies (slight)
Manager: Jim Fregosi vs Bobby Cox
Jim Fregosi won a division title in his first full season as manager of the California Angels (1979). This year - his second full season in Philadelphia - he became the third manager in baseball history to take a team from last to first. Fregosi is a good manager who relates well to his players and while his overall record may not look stellar, he is clearly the kind of manager who can come in and revitalize a team that has talent but needs guidance. The problem for Fregosi is that the guy in the other dugout beat him to the "worst to first" accomplishment and has turned three losers - Atlanta twice and Toronto - into long-term winners by getting the right pieces at the right time. The only thing Bobby Cox is missing on his resume is the World Series ring.
Edge: Braves
SUMMARY
On paper this series is a colossal mismatch. Philadelphia holds exactly one BIG edge over the Braves (Daulton at catcher), and even their other edges are slight at best. The Braves have the better offense (since McGriff came over), the better pitching (by far), and the better defense (by far). Philly's best edge is on the bench and that only comes into play if a game is close late. And yet it cannot be ignored that the Phillies and Braves each won six contests against each other and at different times (pre-McGriff and post-McGriff).
When a team holds an edge at every position, has a better overall pitching staff, better manager, and more postseason experience, that team is probably going to roar through the opponent with the subtlety of a train wreck. And yet you cannot undersell the fact Philly won 97 games this year. At the core, however, this is the same team that finished last in 1992 and added two free agents and had a bunch of career years. Look for Atlanta to make short work of the Phillies, although the heart factor leads me to think this may go six games. The Braves will get their rematch with the Blue Jays, and it will be interesting to see what has changed in the last year.
Prediction: Braves in 6.