2019 MLB playoffs thread

[81usaf92]

My thought is that the National East titles the last two years have been more like “gifts”. The Mets haven’t been able to get out of their own way and the Nats would have been toe to toe with them until the end had it not been for that horrid start to the season. And one would have expected better from the Phillies after the Bryce Harper deal.

Next year the Braves will not have the luxury of playing “Russian roulette” with the bullpen and pitching rotation like they did this year. If they do that, they could be buried so deep by the all star break it won’t matter.

The Nats and Mets really should really own the division but both seem to suck against the Marlins.

The Phillies sold their soul for Bryce Harper but it really doesn’t help because that money could have been used for better resources.

The Braves need pitching at every phase of the game. I think we need to re sign Greene, Fried, and Foltynewicz. But we really need to get in the MadBum and Smith sweepstakes.

 

[CB4]

And the Nats comeback in the top of the 10th with a grand slam to take a 7-3 lead.

 

[CB4]

The Dodgers, with the best record in the National League and the Braves with the second best record are both out if the Dodgers don’t get off the deck.

It shows you can go through a 162 game regular season, be head and shoulders above the rest, and if you aren’t playing your best at the end and you leave the other guy “in it” to game 5 in a five games, you can get schooled.

 

[cuda.1973]

LA is out.

 

[DogPatch]

I don't follow MLB as close as I used to, so could this loss get Roberts a pink slip from the Dodgers?

 

[BamaInBham]

The Dodgers, with the best record in the National League and the Braves with the second best record are both out if the Dodgers don’t get off the deck.

It shows you can go through a 162 game regular season, be head and shoulders above the rest, and if you aren’t playing your best at the end and you leave the other guy “in it” to game 5 in a five games, you can get schooled.

So true. It happens all of the time. The last place team is usually ~ .400 and the first place ~.620. During the regular season the last place team can take 2 of 3 from the first place team and no one blinks an eye. A HOF pitcher usually wins 60-65% of his games, HOF hitter fails ~70% of the time, ~60% counting walks. Baseball is not a good tournament sport - too much luck. Many bloops and dribblers turn into hits and line drives or scorching one hoppers into double plays. A foul back costs little, get just a 1/4" more of the ball and it's aa easy pop out. Kinda evens out over 162 but not 5 or 7.

That's not counting just being off at any particular time of the year - pitching or hitting.

Of course some just perform better when everything is on the line, some perform worse. It's often hard to know what causes variance in performance. Analytics ignores variance in human behavior based on circumstances. They say there is no such thing as being "clutch" but anyone who knows a sport knows that they are wrong. Some guys are much more prone to "come through" than others in the big moment. Tom Brady, Michael Jordan...

 

[81usaf92]

The Dodgers, with the best record in the National League and the Braves with the second best record are both out if the Dodgers don’t get off the deck.

It shows you can go through a 162 game regular season, be head and shoulders above the rest, and if you aren’t playing your best at the end and you leave the other guy “in it” to game 5 in a five games, you can get schooled.

I didn't want the Braves to be #1 because of the very fact that the #1 seed gets put out far more often than the #2 team. I wouldn't be surprised if the Rays put the Stros out today. Also worth noting the WC team usually reaches the WS if they get past the divisional round. I see the Nats either winning in 4 or 5. The Cards are totally outgunned.

I don't follow MLB as close as I used to, so could this loss get Roberts a pink slip from the Dodgers?

I didn't watch it because I was too mad about the Braves performance. Unless he rode Buehler way too long then I would say the Dodgers will just deal with it for another year. But they are becoming worse than the Braves and Cubs at losing these kinda series that they should win, and Kershaw is more of liability than a savior in October. Basically the Peyton Manning of baseball

 

[81usaf92]

Of course some just perform better when everything is on the line, some perform worse. It's often hard to know what causes variance in performance. Analytics ignores variance in human behavior based on circumstances. They say there is no such thing as being "clutch" but anyone who knows a sport knows that they are wrong. Some guys are much more prone to "come through" than others in the big moment. Tom Brady, Michael Jordan...

Kershaw is about a death sentence in October, and someone like Bumgarner will just shut you down in the postseason. Sometimes it just makes no sense.

 

[B1GTide]

The Dodgers, with the best record in the National League and the Braves with the second best record are both out if the Dodgers don’t get off the deck.

It shows you can go through a 162 game regular season, be head and shoulders above the rest, and if you aren’t playing your best at the end and you leave the other guy “in it” to game 5 in a five games, you can get schooled.

Post-season baseball is like a totally different sport. You get extra days off, you use fewer starting pitchers, you use starters as relievers - essentially, it requires a totally different manager. Someone who understands his pitching staff well enough to navigate through those differences. Atlanta and LA don't have one.

3 teams let their opponents off the deck on Wednesday - only the Yankees clinched that night. So far 2 of the 3 have been eliminated. Will the Astros be able to avoid that tonight?

 

[81usaf92]

Post-season baseball is like a totally different sport. You get extra days off, you use fewer starting pitchers, you use starters as relievers - essentially, it requires a totally different manager. Someone who understands his pitching staff well enough to navigate through those differences. Atlanta and LA don't have one.

I think the idea was to put Soroka on the road because he is statistically better on the road. The problem with that is that it gave Flatherty a shot the #3 guy who is very Jekyll and Hyde. Soroka should've been the Game 1 starter and Keuchel should've been the Game 3 starter. That way, if the Braves were up for elimination, atleast you had your ace available with ample rest.

But I think the GM is more to blame than Snitker in this by think 3 trades for B level relievers (Greene is an A level when he is on) was going to do it for us. Had we gotten Stroman or Bumgarner then the Cards wouldn't have had a chance in hell of winning 2 games. But Alex played the "Im not giving you our prospect" game and tried to wait out the Blue Jays just to let the Mets screw us by getting the starter we desperately needed for no reason. This is a week after he said Gausman was an elite pitcher.

You are either all in or all out on every level of the organization. The Braves were all in as players, and all out in coaching and backoffice. If this doesn't change in the next few months then we are going to be watching the Nationals or the Mets hoisting the division banner next September.

As for the WS now, I think the Nats are going to win it all. Their pitching is unreal, and their lineup has woken up. No offense to the Cards, but keeping Flaherty in so long is going to bite yall. Because the Nats can use Annnibal and Corbin for Games 1 &2, and hide Scherzer and Stras for 3 & 4

 

[B1GTide]

I still think the Astros will win it all, but they have to win tonight to allow that to happen. If they lose, the Yankees will probably add another trophy to their warehouse. I don't see anyone in the NL beating either of those teams.

 

[TexasBama]

I still think the Astros will win it all, but they have to win tonight to allow that to happen. If they lose, the Yankees will probably add another trophy to their warehouse. I don't see anyone in the NL beating either of those teams.

I just saw the Washington news. Dang! I’m glad we have Cole pitching at home tonight, but the way things have gone so far I’m not gonna hold my breath.

 

[TexasBama]

I still think the Astros will win it all, but they have to win tonight to allow that to happen. If they lose, the Yankees will probably add another trophy to their warehouse. I don't see anyone in the NL beating either of those teams.

I just saw the Washington news. Dang! I’m glad we have Cole pitching at home tonight, but the way things have gone so far I’m not gonna hold my breath.

 

[BamaInBham]

Post-season baseball is like a totally different sport. You get extra days off, you use fewer starting pitchers, you use starters as relievers - essentially, it requires a totally different manager. Someone who understands his pitching staff well enough to navigate through those differences. Atlanta and LA don't have one.

3 teams let their opponents off the deck on Wednesday - only the Yankees clinched that night. So far 2 of the 3 have been eliminated. Will the Astros be able to avoid that tonight?

I'm not saying Snitker was flawless but according to the formula you espoused, with which I agree, he:

• used fewer starting pitchers to start - only 3 of the 5.
• used starter Fried to good effect as a reliever, left Julio off the roster til Martin was injured, then only used him in desperate relief
• had the guts to move MF to 2nd in the rotation who delivered in game 2
• didn't panic but came back with Melancon in games 2 & 3 after the implosion in game 1

So, he did the very things (bullets 1 and 2) that you said he did not and a couple of other good moves.

OTOH, IMO, he should have started Soroka by game 2, thus making him available for game 5. But that is easy to say in retrospect. MF was one of the hottest pitchers in baseball but no doubt Soroka is more dependable.

So, his only mistake that I'm aware of was by adjusting his rotation from the typical reg season for the postseason. Where are your complaints?

 

[81usaf92]

TBH... We will get there eventually with this team just like the Nats have. Im more confident in SNit over Freddie G as a manager. But like its been said we really need a Big 3 rotation with servicable 4 and 5's, and we really need that shut down closer. Ive heard rumors that Will Smith may consider Atlanta due to location so maybe we get him cheaper than what we originally thought.

 

[B1GTide]

Where are your complaints?

Tat he did them poorly? The he did not recognize that Fried struggles in the first inning of games, so is not someone useful out of the bullpen. That he did not see Teheran as a complete waste on the roster. The he did not let a hot pitcher stay in the game a number of times in the series.

It isn't enough to make these moves - you have to know your pitchers well enough to know when you are setting them up to fail. He is following a formula instead of having a feel for his team. As fans we all saw the mistakes he was making. How could he not? If you want to give him a pass, fine by me. He doesn't get one from me.

Game 5 was a total failure - not blaming that on anyone. But this series should never have made it to game 5.

 

[TexasBama]

This is where the multiple pitcher strategy sees it demise

 

[BamaInBham]

Tat he did them poorly? The he did not recognize that Fried struggles in the first inning of games, so is not someone useful out of the bullpen. That he did not see Teheran as a complete waste on the roster. The he did not let a hot pitcher stay in the game a number of times in the series.

It isn't enough to make these moves - you have to know your pitchers well enough to know when you are setting them up to fail. He is following a formula instead of having a feel for his team. As fans we all saw the mistakes he was making. How could he not? If you want to give him a pass, fine by me. He doesn't get one from me.

Game 5 was a total failure - not blaming that on anyone. But this series should never have made it to game 5.

What are you talking about? Fried was lights out his first 3 appearances, including wins in games 2 & 3 - didn't give up a hit - all in high pressure situations. He was ineffective in game 5 as he was brought in to save the sinking Titanic.

Tehran was left off of the postseason roster. After Martin's injury they place him on the roster. He wasn't used until game 4 when they were completely out of options.

Your vague charges about how he used his bullpen is unconvincing. He showed he did know his staff - they aren't perfect. He did not appear formulaic as he departed from script or the safe way out on multiple occasions.

It's easy to be critical in hindsight, especially when your mind is made up beforehand, as you've shown by not realizing or acknowledging the nature of some of his moves.

 

[B1GTide]

It's easy to be critical in hindsight, especially when your mind is made up beforehand, as you've shown by not realizing or acknowledging the nature of some of his moves.

You are probably right. I am just too angry at myself for allowing myself to believe in the disaster of a franchise again. I am pushing that anger off on others who do not deserve it. Thanks for keeping it real. I just need to take a step back again.

 

[B1GTide]

So, I've got the Astros and the Nats in the next round. Still think the Astros win it all, but didn't think TB could take them to a game 5, so I feel a lot less confident in that pick.