I sat down last night and went through every SEC team's schedule to come up with my record predictions for everyone. I went into it thinking Texas and Georgia probably have the best teams top to bottom, with us just behind those two. Ole Miss, Missouri, Tennessee and LSU, I was thinking were all probably a notch or so below us. The predicted results I came up with were surprising. For the top 6 teams only, I included the losses:
1) Missouri 7-1 (11-1), @ Alabama
T2) Texas 6-2 (10-2), @Oklahoma, @TAM
T2) Alabama 6-2 (10-2), UGA, @Oklahoma
T2) LSU 6-2 (10-2), @TAM, Alabama
T2) Ole Miss 6-2 (10-2), @LSU, @Florida
T2) Georgia 6-2 (10-2), @Texas, @ Ole Miss
T7) Auburn 5-3 (9-3)
T7) Tennessee 5-3 (9-3)
T9) Oklahoma 4-4 (8-4)
T9) Florida 4-4 (7-5)
T9) Texas A&M 4-4 (7-5)
T12) Kentucky 2-6 (6-6)
T12) South Carolina 2-6 (5-7)
14) Arkansas 1-7 (4-8)
T15) Mississippi St 0-8 (4-8)
T15) Vanderbilt 0-8 (4-8)
I was surprised that I had Missouri with the best conference record, but when you look at their schedule, it's pretty favorable, at least relatively speaking. We are by far their toughest test, and then it's Auburn and Oklahoma at home, and maybe TAM on the road. They avoid UGA, Texas, LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss.
Obviously, the probability of 5 teams finishing 6-2 is very small, but that's what I came up with. What I don't know is how the tie-breaker will be determined, and I don't think it has been determined yet. I'm assuming it would first go head-to-head, but if there are 3 or more teams with the same conference record and don't necessarily play each other, then I don't know how it works. Maybe that's been addressed, but I haven't found it. Under my scenario, I've assumed Texas would go because they would have the best record amongst the 6-2 teams, but who knows. The point is that it's real possibility to have some chaos.
Also, and again I realize my predictions won't actually happen, but I don't think anything worse than 10-2 gets anyone into the playoff, and even with that record it's not a given even for a SEC team.
1) Missouri 7-1 (11-1), @ Alabama
T2) Texas 6-2 (10-2), @Oklahoma, @TAM
T2) Alabama 6-2 (10-2), UGA, @Oklahoma
T2) LSU 6-2 (10-2), @TAM, Alabama
T2) Ole Miss 6-2 (10-2), @LSU, @Florida
T2) Georgia 6-2 (10-2), @Texas, @ Ole Miss
T7) Auburn 5-3 (9-3)
T7) Tennessee 5-3 (9-3)
T9) Oklahoma 4-4 (8-4)
T9) Florida 4-4 (7-5)
T9) Texas A&M 4-4 (7-5)
T12) Kentucky 2-6 (6-6)
T12) South Carolina 2-6 (5-7)
14) Arkansas 1-7 (4-8)
T15) Mississippi St 0-8 (4-8)
T15) Vanderbilt 0-8 (4-8)
I was surprised that I had Missouri with the best conference record, but when you look at their schedule, it's pretty favorable, at least relatively speaking. We are by far their toughest test, and then it's Auburn and Oklahoma at home, and maybe TAM on the road. They avoid UGA, Texas, LSU, Tennessee and Ole Miss.
Obviously, the probability of 5 teams finishing 6-2 is very small, but that's what I came up with. What I don't know is how the tie-breaker will be determined, and I don't think it has been determined yet. I'm assuming it would first go head-to-head, but if there are 3 or more teams with the same conference record and don't necessarily play each other, then I don't know how it works. Maybe that's been addressed, but I haven't found it. Under my scenario, I've assumed Texas would go because they would have the best record amongst the 6-2 teams, but who knows. The point is that it's real possibility to have some chaos.
Also, and again I realize my predictions won't actually happen, but I don't think anything worse than 10-2 gets anyone into the playoff, and even with that record it's not a given even for a SEC team.
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