Is it short-sighted? The chances for a 4* safety to make it to the NFL are not great.
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In the US, there are just over a million players at the high school level. Of those, 73,712 make it to the NCAA level, representing just 7.3% of the talent pool.
At any one time, just over 16,000 are draft eligible, which is only 1.6% of that college player pool. And then only 259 players will be drafted. That is a minuscule 0.016% of the draft-eligible NCAA pool.
These young men have won the lottery, right? Well, not quite yet.
Having already been in the select 0.01% of the top 1.6% of the top 7.3% of the nation, the chosen players might be dismayed to learn that only 30% of those drafted will ever make it onto an NFL roster.
Of course, this number is skewed and isn’t a straight line across the board. The players taken in the first and second rounds will definitely be on the opening day roster, barring some unforeseen injury or something. But the players taken in the sixth and seventh rounds may have only a 10% or 15% chance, at least in the first year or two.
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The new world of NIL sucks for the fans, but it does provide the opportunity for many young kids to earn their lifetime-level money.