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Alabama’s Run/Pass percentage necessary to win the National Championship

Jkl0802

Jkl0802

1st Team
Apr 9, 2015
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Stuttgart, Germany
Alabama’s Run/Pass percentage necessary to beat Awbern

We are getting ready to enter the strength of our schedule with likely close and challenged SEC games with LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and then championship games with likely Clemson and Ohio State (or one of the other 4 finalists). If we lose to LSU or Georgia in the SEC, I believe we are out. If we beat LSU and Georgia and lose to Auburn, I think we are in.

So to clean the table with these pretty good teams and not stumble in critical games, how do we do this? I Believe our best chance is to ride the Tua Train as far as he can take us. We pass and score as often as possible, and we run only when needed to keep a defense honest. New England is throwing the football about 60 % of their snaps this year and I think that about right for Alabama. My worry is that we throw and score early and then with a lead we revert to a predictable run twice and throw on 3rd down to take the “air out of the game.” I’m not sure our young defense can win the game. Bottom Line: offensive pedal to the metal, and don’t let up is our best chance to win another 🏆
 
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I think our line play has improved enough that we can choose what want to do. A balanced offense is key to the RPO's that TUA runs so well. With Brown back at guard and with Dickerson at center, we can get nasty with the best of defenses if we want to mix run and pass. It when we become predictable that bad stuff happens!
 
Jkl0802 said:
We are getting ready to enter the strength of our schedule with likely close and challenged SEC games with LSU, Auburn, Georgia, and then championship games with likely Clemson and Ohio State (or one of the other 4 finalists). If we lose to LSU or Georgia in the SEC, I believe we are out. If we beat LSU and Georgia and lose to Auburn, I think we are in.

So to clean the table with these pretty good teams and not stumble in critical games, how do we do this? I Believe our best chance is to ride the Tua Train as far as he can take us. We pass and score as often as possible, and we run only when needed to keep a defense honest. New England is throwing the football about 60 % of their snaps this year and I think that about right for Alabama. My worry is that we throw and score early and then with a lead we revert to a predictable run twice and throw on 3rd down to take the “air out of the game.” I’m not sure our young defense can win the game. Bottom Line: offensive pedal to the metal, and don’t let up is our best chance to win another 🏆
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My worry is we score quickly, and they score with long drives that wears our defense out by the end of the third quarter. We need to score, but our run game needs to contribute substantially to rest our defense. A lot of 3 and outs is obviously very hurtful to both staying in the game and wearing our defense out.
 
Football is fundamentally the same as it always has been. Want to win - win the trenches. This isn't about Tua, or the mixture of plays. It is about beating the guy across from you.
 
“ And offensive coordinator Steve Sarkisian, of course. Alabama’s play caller devised a game plan this week for the Tide’s pre-Iron Bowl tune-up that required fewer “difficult decisions,” as Nick Saban termed them this week, and fewer three- or four-read passing plays.”

I am still worried that we roll in to the Auburn game with this mentality...hopefully I am wrong and we are luring Auburn in to believing we will run on 1st and 2d downs and throw short passes to the flats and screens when runs don’t get us close enough to a first down for another running play😁. Again, I think we have to throw the ball down field on early downs due to the way Auburn’s secondary basically mugs a receiver right off the line of scrimmage and their defensive line gets to the QB in 4 or so seconds.
 
I'm only really thinking about the Iron Bowl because it is more of a toss up than I think anyone realizes. The media wants to talk about it in terms of style points but this is really about just getting the W. Without the win none of the national championship posturing matters and the W is not a certainty.

So...


I don't think we can beat Auburn without a 100-yard rushing day from Najee Harris. I don't really care how they get to that run production, but it has got to happen or their DL will tee off on Mac Jones at some point. They may pass to setup the run if the defense is giving them the pass. I can't predict Auburn on defense because almost every year they've got a package they've seem to have kept in the back pocket for just this game. They'll eventually fall back onto what they do but I'd bet on some confusion early as the staff identifies any tweaks or wrinkles they've made. Same thing happened last year when they were squatting on short route then they got torched in the second half with double moves.
 
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“Same thing happened last year when they were squatting on short route then they got torched in the second half with double moves.“

I think your last sentence is exactly right. We need to get our receivers past the initial move because Auburn’s DBs jump the receivers at the line of scrimmage and follow closely through the first cut (they can do this because their defensive line and LB blitz’s usually get to the QB quickly...especially on a known passing play). But when receivers make the second cut and get separation the Auburn DBs either are beaten badly or called for pass interference. Play action passes down the field on 1st and 2d down will be critical to a win in my opinion. If we get to third and long, I’d draw and screen Most of the day....if we revert to running on both 1st and 2d and dropping back and throwing on 3rd down...I’m worried the game stays close and we lose in the end because their Defense and Field goal kicker is better/ more consistent than ours. Plus, they’re the home team and the barners will be going crazy. We need to get up early and keep the offensive petal to the metal.
 
You said "more of a tossup." I think everyone, including the odds-makers agree, since we're only 3 point favorites. Personally, I'm not afraid we'll defalut to a run, run, pass format. With AU's DL, that would be suicide. In the post-game interviews, Mac referred to his "reads," and referenced the numbers, so I don't think they have handcuffs on him. He overthrew two posts and over led the TE in the EZ, where I think he really only had one read. Other than that, it was an excellent performance...
 
TIDE-HSV said:
You said "more of a tossup." I think everyone, including the odds-makers agree, since we're only 3 point favorites. Personally, I'm not afraid we'll defalut to a run, run, pass format. With AU's DL, that would be suicide. In the post-game interviews, Mac referred to his "reads," and referenced the numbers, so I don't think they have handcuffs on him. He overthrew two posts and over led the TE in the EZ, where I think he really only had one read. Other than that, it was an excellent performance...
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I agree, except Mac or Talia will have to complete a few more passes down field. I'm referring to the 25-45 yard balls.
If our receivers can break free after the 1st or 2nd cut, we have the guys who can take it to the house.
We are going to have to throw some guys open. No more soft lobs.
 
Jkl0802 said:
...passes down the field on 1st and 2d down will be critical to a win in my opinion....if we revert to running on both 1st and 2d and dropping back and throwing on 3rd down...I’m worried the game stays close and we lose in the end because their Defense and Field goal kicker is better/ more consistent than ours. ...
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This Five Thirty Eight analysis from January indicates you’re probably right. Key takeaway: Rush-rush-pass is the least successful three play sequence for sustaining a drive. Pass-rush-rush is the most successful three-play sequence, followed by pass-pass-rush and rush-pass-rush.

Though the analysis focused on NFL games, it seems reasonable to assume a similar approach versus top flight FBS defenses, such as AU’s, is strategically sound.




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Isaiah 63:1 said:
This Five Thirty Eight analysis from January indicates you’re probably right. Key takeaway: Rush-rush-pass is the least successful three play sequence for sustaining a drive. Pass-rush-rush is the most successful three-play sequence, followed by pass-pass-rush and rush-pass-rush.
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I think those who have watched a lot of college football instinctively know this to be true, but its good someone crunched the numbers.
 
Cruiser said:
Wonder if they might have some packages for Lia to run the ball?
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You need to run their DL as much as possible. The best way to do it is sideline to sideline and keep doing it. We need to gas their defense with stretch plays, jet sweeps, screens, etc with a good dose of play action over the top.


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BamaFlum said:
You need to run their DL as much as possible. The best way to do it is sideline to sideline and keep doing it. We need to gas their defense with stretch plays, jet sweeps, screens, etc with a good dose of play action over the top.


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Pretty much what I expect. I think they'll crowd the line and the middle to shut off the slant. Over the top and working the sidelines is the way to attack that...
 
TIDE-HSV said:
Pretty much what I expect. I think they'll crowd the line and the middle to shut off the slant. Over the top and working the sidelines is the way to attack that...
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As long as Mac settles in....I'm sure in the beginning he will be hyped and will overthrow a few medium passes.....but as long as he can settle in and handle the pressure from their DL, I think the day will be Bama's.

My biggest concern is how Mac handles the atmosphere and can he settle in, get in a groove....or does he start expecting the pressure, pulling the ball too quickly and running. How Mac handles the day is really the whole ballgame to me.
 
Cruloc said:
As long as Mac settles in....I'm sure in the beginning he will be hyped and will overthrow a few medium passes.....but as long as he can settle in and handle the pressure from their DL, I think the day will be Bama's.

My biggest concern is how Mac handles the atmosphere and can he settle in, get in a groove....or does he start expecting the pressure, pulling the ball too quickly and running. How Mac handles the day is really the whole ballgame to me.
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I think Sark'll start him slowly again, but we can't beat AU with the last two game plans, IMO...
 
I have not gone back to watch last year's game when Tua had 6 TD, but isn't the Auburn's defense pretty much the same as last year? They were a top 10 defense last year and everyone said it would be difficult playing against them. I know Mac is not Tua, but whatever worked last year.. I am sure Sark will look at that tape to get ideas along with this year's tape on Auburn.
 
TIDE-HSV said:
I think Sark'll start him slowly again, but we can't beat AU with the last two game plans, IMO...
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I think we have to go 3 wide -- put a sixth lineman -- and protect Mac. Our WRs are such good route runners that they get open with time.....and I'd run right at wherever their stud DL guy is.....over and over.....back that dude up
 
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