And the college football world freaks out (or "Alabama lives rent free in everybody's head 24/7/365")

[BamaNation]

‘Why Do We Even Play the Games?’ College Football Is Freaking Out About Alabama—Again.
With the first 12-team playoff bracket set to be unveiled Sunday, the sport has been consumed by another furious spat about favoritism to the Southeastern Conference and its most powerful school.

Read the rest of the article here:

https://www.wsj.com/sports/football/college-football-playoff-alabama-sec-chaos-70d303d7?st=eFwwbo&reflink=desktopwebshare_permalink

My take:

If the favorites win and we don't get in, then the SEC should blow up schedules and everybody in the SEC schedule play the same weak teams that ACC, Big12, MWC, MAC, Big10, ND, etc. do. THAT will be the message the committee sends to all involved. Schedule weak teams, go 12-0 and you're in.

WE have THREE wins against top 15. We have a couple of ridiculous losses and one that is ok. BUT we have shown we can beat the top teams.

I have crunched the numbers for ALL 134 FBS teams & 11 FBS conferences ... and the numbers don't lie. Remember these are the AVERAGES. (Sorted by Avg SOS)

Conference	Avg SOR	Avg FPI	Avg SOS	Median SOS*
SEC	30​	23​	15​	12.5​
Big Ten	45​	44​	31​	27.0​
ACC	52​	50​	46​	48.0​
Big 12	52​	44​	52​	48.0​
FBS Indep.	70​	69​	85​	74.0​
MAC	96​	104​	94​	85.5​
Pac-12	82​	81​	98​	98.0​
Mountain West	90​	92​	98​	102.0​
American	87​	92​	99​	96.5​
Sun Belt	85​	87​	100​	102.5​
CUSA	104​	111​	110​	110.0​

* added this column to address @cbi1972's concerns about central tendencies for rank ordered data.

 

[BamaNation]

Here is a view of records vs ranked teams in 2024 for all teams that have at least 2 of these ranked wins. Notre Dame is 4-0, Texas is 4-1, Bama, TN, KS are 3-1, AZ St is 3-0, UGA & IL are 3-2, SoCar is 4-3.

Team	Win-Loss Record vs Ranked Opp	Win %
Notre Dame	4-0-0	100.0%
Texas	4-1-0	80.0%
S Carolina	4-3-0	57.1%
Arizona St	3-0-0	100.0%
Tennessee	3-1-0	75.0%
Kansas	3-1-0	75.0%
Alabama	3-1-0	75.0%
Illinois	3-2-0	60.0%
Georgia	3-2-0	60.0%
S Methodist	2-0-0	100.0%
Oregon	2-0-0	100.0%
Ohio St	2-1-0	66.7%
Syracuse	2-1-0	66.7%
Kansas St	2-1-0	66.7%
Texas A&M	2-2-0	50.0%
Minnesota	2-2-0	50.0%
GA Tech	2-3-0	40.0%
Michigan	2-4-0	33.3%
Florida	2-4-0	33.3%

 

[92tide]

 

[Bazza]

Thought y'all were in no matter what.

 

[BamaNation]

And here's the CFB FPI & SOR/SOS for the top 20 Strength of Record teams. Looking at Strength of Schedule, we're 18 and UGA is 3. NOBODY ELSE is even close other than LSU, Florida, TAMU, & So Car who just happen to be ... yes, you guessed it, SEC teams.

	CONF	SOR	FPI	AP/CFP	SOS
Oregon Ducks	BigTen	1	6	1	60
Georgia Bulldogs	SEC	2	5	5	3
Texas Longhorns	SEC	3	1	2	32
Penn State Nittany Lions	BigTen	4	9	3	36
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Ind.	5	2	4	54
Ohio State Buckeyes	BigTen	6	3	6	26
Tennessee Volunteers	SEC	7	7	7	29
Indiana Hoosiers	Big Ten	8	10	9	65
SMU Mustangs	ACC	9	12	8	75
Alabama Crimson Tide	SEC	10	4	11	18
Boise State Broncos	MWC	11	26	10	82
South Carolina Gamecocks	SEC	12	14	14	15
BYU Cougars	Big12	13	32	18	44
Miami Hurricanes	ACC	14	11	12	55
Iowa State Cyclones	Big12	15	22	16	69
Arizona State Sun Devils	Big12	16	28	15	72
Army Black Knights	American	17	43	24	94
LSU Tigers	SEC	18	17	--	10
Ole Miss Rebels	SEC	19	8	13	31
Missouri Tigers	SEC	20	20	19	27
Texas A&M Aggies	SEC	21	16	--	9
Illinois Fighting Illini	BigTen	22	45	21	30
Florida Gators	SEC	23	21	--	5
Louisville Cardinals	ACC	24	13	--	22
Clemson Tigers	ACC	25	15	17	52

 

[SkullDuckery]

If Iowa St wins then Az St would have a better argument then if SMU were to lose.

 

[BamaNation]

E'rebody trying to do the equivalent of the ol' UTex student body tossing bottles to get the call changed. That's what's happening here. LOTS of politicking. Don't blame 'em. If we had played a weak schedule and were 11-1 and being left out because "we just play the games we're scheduled", I would do the same.

But FACTS are FACTS.

 

[Ledsteplin]

And here's the CFB FPI & SOR/SOS for the top 20 Strength of Record teams. Looking at Strength of Schedule, we're 18 and UGA is 3. NOBODY ELSE is even close other than LSU, Florida, TAMU, & So Car.

	CONF	SOR	FPI	AP/CFP	SOS
Oregon Ducks	BigTen	1	6	1	60
Georgia Bulldogs	SEC	2	5	5	3
Texas Longhorns	SEC	3	1	2	32
Penn State Nittany Lions	BigTen	4	9	3	36
Notre Dame Fighting Irish	Ind.	5	2	4	54
Ohio State Buckeyes	BigTen	6	3	6	26
Tennessee Volunteers	SEC	7	7	7	29
Indiana Hoosiers	Big Ten	8	10	9	65
SMU Mustangs	ACC	9	12	8	75
Alabama Crimson Tide	SEC	10	4	11	18
Boise State Broncos	MWC	11	26	10	82
South Carolina Gamecocks	SEC	12	14	14	15
BYU Cougars	Big12	13	32	18	44
Miami Hurricanes	ACC	14	11	12	55
Iowa State Cyclones	Big12	15	22	16	69
Arizona State Sun Devils	Big12	16	28	15	72
Army Black Knights	American	17	43	24	94
LSU Tigers	SEC	18	17	--	10
Ole Miss Rebels	SEC	19	8	13	31
Missouri Tigers	SEC	20	20	19	27
Texas A&M Aggies	SEC	21	16	--	9
Illinois Fighting Illini	BigTen	22	45	21	30
Florida Gators	SEC	23	21	--	5
Louisville Cardinals	ACC	24	13	--	22
Clemson Tigers	ACC	25	15	17	52

I don't understand why so many SOS lists. I’ve seen Bama listed at 4, 8, 10, and now 18. When I look at UGAs and Bama’s schedules side by side, they look pretty equal. And I have trouble digesting UGA at 3, and Bama at 18. This is the first I’ve seen Bama as high as 18.

 

[BamaNation]

I don't understand why so many SOS lists. I’ve seen Bama listed at 4, 8, 10, and now 18. When I look at UGAs and Bama’s schedules side by side, they look pretty equal. And I have trouble digesting UGA at 3, and Bama at 18. This is the first I’ve seen Bama as high as 18.

I should point out the team #'s come from ESPN. The avgs are mine. Regardless of the source (which may have varying #'s depending on their algorithm), the results will be the same - SEC, alone, is not playing powderpuff schedules!

 

[KrAzY3]

I don't understand why so many SOS lists. I’ve seen Bama listed at 4, 8, 10, and now 18. When I look at UGAs and Bama’s schedules side by side, they look pretty equal. And I have trouble digesting UGA at 3, and Bama at 18. This is the first I’ve seen Bama as high as 18.

Computers just have vastly different ways of arriving at SoS. It's just like rankings in that there are different ways to arrive to them. The key is they attempt to rank schedule so they give you some idea of who played a tougher schedule, they like rankings don't necessarily get the top teams right.

Sagarin for instance currently has Alabama at 14. I just accept it's probably in the ballpark, and from there I can see that the only 3 teams with a top 20 SoS and less than 4 losses would be Alabama, Georgia, and South Carolina. Then I can see that the highest SoS team with 1 loss or less is Texas.

College Football Ratings Page

SMU has an SoS of 63 for instance. Even if they're off by a dozen spots, it tells me they played an enormously easier schedule.

 

[Elefantman]

We have only one more SEC loss than Clemson, yet they might bump us out. We need a conference exchange program. Each year have a SEC team swap schedule with a team from another conference. Let Bama and Miami exchange schedules next year. See how that goes for the Cains.

 

[Con]

I should point out the team #'s come from ESPN. The avgs are mine. Regardless of the source (which may have varying #'s depending on their algorithm), the results will be the same - SEC, alone, is not playing powderpuff schedules!

I don’t know @BamaNation, I just saw a commercial during halftime of the Big12 championship game touting how tough their conference schedules were this year. 😆

 

[BamaNation]

I don’t know @BamaNation, I just saw a commercial during halftime of the Big12 championship game touting how tough their conference schedules were this year. 😆

They probably need me to send them MY ANALYSIS OF THE FACTS.

 

[BamaNation]

Listening to the various yahoo commish's this week from other conferences, Ima take Sankey over all of them. He's the only one who is sane and acts like the adult in the room IMHO. He also gets in a lot of sharp cuts in takedowns of the others' nonsense arguments.

 

[cbi1972]

I should point out the team #'s come from ESPN. The avgs are mine. Regardless of the source (which may have varying #'s depending on their algorithm), the results will be the same - SEC, alone, is not playing powderpuff schedules!

I don't know how you took the average, and the underlying point remains the same, but the arithmetic mean is an inappropriate way to average ranked values. The median is a better indicator of central tendency for rank ordered data.

 

[BamaNation]

I don't know how you took the average, and the underlying point remains the same, but the arithmetic mean is an inappropriate way to average ranked values. The median is a better indicator of central tendency for rank ordered data.

Not what I said. ... and I have added a median column to address your statistical concerns.

 

[Bazza]

They probably need me to send them MY ANALYSIS OF THE FACTS.

 

[BamaNation]

#16 Iowa St 10
#15 ASU 45
Beginning of 4th Q

 

[KrAzY3]

I've followed SoS for years, as I believed it's a pretty insightful metric. It doesn't tell us how good a team is, but it tells us whether or not a team has been tested. Basically with a low enough SoS, going undefeated is meaningless, as you might as well have gone undefeated against FCS teams. There's nothing positive to be learned about a team if they face no real challenges.

One of the conclusions I arrived to was that for about every 20 spots of SoS, it should be worth about 1 loss. Allow me to illustrate.

According to Sagarin, 8-4 LSU has an SoS of 7 and a ranking of 16. SMU has an SoS of 63 and a ranking of 10. I would add almost 3 losses to SMU's schedule due to weak SoS, meaning they are barely ahead of LSU. Which actually coincides with Sagarin's ranking.

If I do it with Indiana, they have an SoS of 73 so they pick up 3 losses, making them a 4 loss team. Sagarin has them at 11 while Alabama with 3 losses and an SoS of 14 are ranked 5th according to Sagarin.

Most people because they just don't understand the influence of strength of schedule would look at records and assume Indiana and SMU have a better resume than Alabama. They don't though, all they did was play a much easier schedule.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

We decided to add the Group of Five to the mix because "it's not fair when Boise State/Utah/TCU/UCF goes undefeated and has no chance."

And damned if there's not a single G5 unbeaten this year........

(and yes, I'm obviously referring to when TCU and Utah weren't in major conferences).