CFN: Alabama vs. Michigan State Prediction, Cotton Bowl Preview

[Bama Reb]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

The B1G is definitely not as good as the SEC (or the Pac-12, IMO.) It's not anywhere near as deep.

But the REALLY crazy part of that comment was the ACC, which is BY FAR the worst Power 5 conference...

If all the "power" conferences were lawnmowers, and each mower was rated by it's comparison to the others, the ACC would be a push mower.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Wouldn't everyone agree the Big10 conference was by far, the best fb conference this year (and dare I say the ACC was second)

That being said, isn't that probably the most important metric to look at regarding MSU?

I'll sit back and listen

Good heavens no. Not even close.

 

[sarcyspice]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

Possibly.

SOS of the top five B1G teams:
MSU: 44
Iowa: 57
OSU: 61
Northwestern: 47
Michigan: 43
avg: 50.4

SOS of the top five SEC teams:
Alabama: 4
Ole Miss: 22
UF: 29
LSU: 9
UT: 32
avg: 19.2

The weakest schedule played by a top5 SEC team is stronger than the 'toughest' schedule played by a B1G team. I contend that all five SEC teams would likely be undefeated (sans games against one another) playing a schedule as weak as the B1G teams play.

Does the B1G have the same record if they play an SEC schedule? Doubtful.


No, because a) I don't believe the B1G is the best conference in the country, based on lack of real opponents (see above) and b) Bama is quite a bit better than anyone else in the SEC this year.

I think with regards to MSU it says more about who we ended up having to play in conference in the Bottom end (Maryland, Rutgers and Indiana... and a crossover game against Purdue) than it does about the way we scheduled the non-conference.....(all 4 non conference opponents have 7-5 or better records and are all going to bowl games)

I think the fact MSU still ended up beating 4 of the top 15 in the final poll is more telling than the average SOS

 

[TrueCrimson7]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

I think with regards to MSU it says more about who we ended up having to play in conference in the Bottom end (Maryland, Rutgers and Indiana... and a crossover game against Purdue) than it does about the way we scheduled the non-conference.....(all 4 non conference opponents have 7-5 or better records and are all going to bowl games)

I think the fact MSU still ended up beating 4 of the top 15 in the final poll is more telling than the average SOS

Your Spartans certainly deserve credit for those big game wins, particularly against Iowa and OSU. I will say that outside of the SEC, Michigan State is one of my favorite teams to watch. Right now you are the big fish in your pond and we are the big fish in ours. I look forward to the New Year's match-up.

 

[B1GTide]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

I think the fact MSU still ended up beating 4 of the top 15 in the final poll is more telling than the average SOS

I have written several times how the B1G and Big 12 ended up with so many teams ranked so high at the end of the season, and it has nothing to do with how good those teams really are relative to the rest of college football. They are ranked so high now because of the weakness of the bottom of the conference, plus purposely scheduling all games matching the toughest teams in each conference at the very end of the season.

The B1G and Big 12 both learned from last year and have done everything in their power to game the system. I don't have a problem with it (helps my Buckeyes), but I try to keep that in mind as I weigh the real strength of competition.

The B1G and Big 12 top teams are not as good as their rankings indicate. We'll see that play out in a few weeks.

 

[bamacon]

That's key. Not just through the first qtr after being up 21-6!


Sent from my iPhone 6+ using Tapatalk

Well, something tells me they won't stop using Derrick on New Year's Eve.


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[RTR91]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

I think with regards to MSU it says more about who we ended up having to play in conference in the Bottom end (Maryland, Rutgers and Indiana... and a crossover game against Purdue) than it does about the way we scheduled the non-conference.....(all 4 non conference opponents have 7-5 or better records and are all going to bowl games)

I think the fact MSU still ended up beating 4 of the top 15 in the final poll is more telling than the average SOS

Of course, you think that fact is more telling.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

I have written several times how the B1G and Big 12 ended up with so many teams ranked so high at the end of the season, and it has nothing to do with how good those teams really are relative to the rest of college football. They are ranked so high now because of the weakness of the bottom of the conference, plus purposely scheduling all games matching the toughest teams in each conference at the very end of the season.

The B1G and Big 12 both learned from last year and have done everything in their power to game the system. I don't have a problem with it (helps my Buckeyes), but I try to keep that in mind as I weigh the real strength of competition.

The B1G and Big 12 top teams are not as good as their rankings indicate. We'll see that play out in a few weeks.

Agreed and while I know it's not the be all, end all, we will see it play out on NFL draft day as well.

Iowa was a good team. But they would have lost 4 games playing in the SEC West, IMO.

 

[FF4bama]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

I have written several times how the B1G and Big 12 ended up with so many teams ranked so high at the end of the season, and it has nothing to do with how good those teams really are relative to the rest of college football. They are ranked so high now because of the weakness of the bottom of the conference, plus purposely scheduling all games matching the toughest teams in each conference at the very end of the season.

The B1G and Big 12 both learned from last year and have done everything in their power to game the system. I don't have a problem with it (helps my Buckeyes), but I try to keep that in mind as I weigh the real strength of competition.

The B1G and Big 12 top teams are not as good as their rankings indicate. We'll see that play out in a few weeks.

The Big 12-2 really doesn't have any choice but to backload their schedules if they want to put a team in the playoffs--I hadn't considered that the B1G had done the same. I've been wondering just how much the B1G has caught up over the last few years by hiring Meyer and Harbaugh. Both coaches (and Dantonio) will bring talented recruits to the conference so overall the conference will get stronger IMO. Tough to say how much, but like you say the bowl season will help tell the tale.

 

[theballguy]

“If Alabama loses in the playoff for a second year in a row, does that mean Nick Saban and Alabama are slipping?”

Umm ... no. Coach Saban has not forgotten how to coach. As far as I'm concerned, he stays at Alabama as long as he wants to. Usually when a sportswriter asks a rhetorical question, the answer is almost always "no".

 

[Tideflyer]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

haha you're right ... know the defense is like "Ok ... its on" Just weird that we have the best defense nationally and we don't have ONE player that is considered a top defender in the nation? Just a lil suspect. I'm glad he did win the SEC awards though. Back to the topic, its going to be a good game. If both of our lines dominate, we should have a very good night.

Not really all that weird if you stop and think about it. Our front 7 almost literally takes turns making plays, they`ve been that good. That`s no way to build the individual resume that it takes to win those awards. Are some of our guys the best in the college game? Of course.

 

[oskie]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

I have written several times how the B1G and Big 12 ended up with so many teams ranked so high at the end of the season, and it has nothing to do with how good those teams really are relative to the rest of college football. They are ranked so high now because of the weakness of the bottom of the conference, plus purposely scheduling all games matching the toughest teams in each conference at the very end of the season. ...

The Big 12-2 really doesn't have any choice but to backload their schedules if they want to put a team in the playoffs--I hadn't considered that the B1G had done the sam...

... I agree with these thoughts

... but, could that scheduling strategy also work against the good teams in those conferences by increasing the probability of a late season loss jeopardizing their playoff chances?

... whereas, equally good teams from other conferences, that incur one early season loss, make the climb back up the polls by playoff time.

... seems like we have seen that scenario played out numerous times down through the years, including these last two years.

 

[B1GTide]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

... I agree with these thoughts

... but, could that scheduling strategy also work against the good teams in those conferences by increasing the probability of a late season loss jeopardizing their playoff chances?

... whereas, equally good teams from other conferences, that incur one early season loss, make the climb back up the polls by playoff time.

... seems like we have seen that scenario played out numerous times down through the years, including these last two years.

Their schedules are so weak that they couldn't recover from a loss early in the season, and all of the undefeated teams or one loss teams with better resumes would pass them by. Consider how the Big 12 teams would have been ranked if they all had 2 losses in early November. Think about the B1G - same scenario. These teams all have 1 loss in early November - what are they ranked? Yes, some would still be ranked this high, but they would not ALL be ranked this high.

They are ranked so high because they didn't lose a single game until other teams playing tougher schedules had already had a chance to lose 2 or more. It didn't matter that they hadn't played anybody - they were undefeated.

Why was UNC ranked so low at 11-1 going into the ACCCG? Because they had lost their only tough game and beaten nobody. Well, if the loss to UCSe had happened on their 12th game of the season with UNC 11-0 going into that game, where would they have been ranked before and after the loss?

 

[sarcyspice]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

Of course, you think that fact is more telling.

but you want to play the SOS game both ways..... so call be confused, its okay that you flagged up Alabama's SOS is 4..... but when we flag up that MSU has beaten 4 of the Top 15 .... that apparently doesn't count....

so which is it? does it only now count when it is the entire season? because at the moment it feels like talking is being done out of both sides of the mouth.... but one side isn't talking what the other is preaching......

 

[crimsonaudio]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

but you want to play the SOS game both ways..... so call be confused, its okay that you flagged up Alabama's SOS is 4..... but when we flag up that MSU has beaten 4 of the Top 15 .... that apparently doesn't count....

How about despite the fact that MSU has beaten four of the top 15, their SOS is still a paltry 44th.

Boise State used to play a couple of big games per year interspersed with a number of cupcakes and they claimed because they won a handful of big games they deserved the respect of the teams that slogged through far tougher schedules week in and out. They were summarily dismissed.

MSU's schedule isn't BSU soft, but you can see it from there - the last few years of Boise's run, their SOPS averaged about 75th - closer to MSU's schedule this year than MSU is to Bama's SOS.

 

[sarcyspice]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

The Big 12-2 really doesn't have any choice but to backload their schedules if they want to put a team in the playoffs--I hadn't considered that the B1G had done the same. I've been wondering just how much the B1G has caught up over the last few years by hiring Meyer and Harbaugh. Both coaches (and Dantonio) will bring talented recruits to the conference so overall the conference will get stronger IMO. Tough to say how much, but like you say the bowl season will help tell the tale.

that because the B1G doesn't backload at all either...... the only weekend that is predetermined is the last weekend..... so saying that ohio state-michigan which has been played on the last weekend is like saying auburn-alabama is.....

we just happen to play penn state the last weekend every year for the "worlds worst looking trophy" game.... i think the loser should get to keep it!

 

[B1GTide]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

that because the B1G doesn't backload at all either...... the only weekend that is predetermined is the last weekend..... so saying that ohio state-michigan which has been played on the last weekend is like saying auburn-alabama is.....

we just happen to play penn state the last weekend every year for the "worlds worst looking trophy" game.... i think the loser should get to keep it!

That's not true this year. The B1G changed the schedule for several big games this year, including moving the OSU/MSU game to game 11 of the season. It has never been played that late in the year in my recollection. They probably would have made it the last game of the season if we were not adamant about playing UM that week.

 

[sarcyspice]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

How about despite the fact that MSU has beaten four of the top 15, their SOS is still a paltry 44th.

Boise State used to play a couple of big games per year interspersed with a number of cupcakes and they claimed because they won a handful of big games they deserved the respect of the teams that slogged through far tougher schedules week in and out. They were summarily dismissed.

MSU's schedule isn't BSU soft, but you can see it from there - the last few years of Boise's run, their SOPS averaged about 75th - closer to MSU's schedule this year than MSU is to Bama's SOS.

that is because as I said it says more about the bottom of the B1G East (Indiana, Maryland and Rutgers) and the B1G West crossover game (Purdue) we ended up playing this year

The Non-Con being very good.... All 4 teams (Oregon, Air Force, Western and Central) all ended up being 7-5 or better and all are going to bowl games

For example.... Our B1G west crossover the last couple of years were Wisconsin and Illinois....Some years it is Nebraska and Northwestern....

it would be like your SOS being dragged down if your SEC East Crossover games were against Kentucky and Vandy for example

 

[sarcyspice]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

That's not true this year. The B1G changed the schedule for several big games this year, including moving the OSU/MSU game to game 11 of the season. It has never been played that late in the year in my recollection. They probably would have made it the last game of the season if we were not adamant about playing UM that week.

if it were backloaded.... wouldn't the michigan/ michigan state game be a lot later than the usual early october date...... Michigan state/Ohio state has been late in the past.... when we beat you 10-7 in the shoe a few years ago.... when you beat us in EL two years ago that was still early-mid november..... same when we went into c-bus when you were ranked 1 many moons ago.....

so you are using a sample of one year... and just the year when michigan michigan state and penn state were all not bad....

it may have been backloaded for Ohio State.... certainly wasn't for anyone else!!!!!

 

[RTR91]

Re: With respect to RTR91 and his statistical prowess

but you want to play the SOS game both ways..... so call be confused, its okay that you flagged up Alabama's SOS is 4..... but when we flag up that MSU has beaten 4 of the Top 15 .... that apparently doesn't count....

so which is it? does it only now count when it is the entire season? because at the moment it feels like talking is being done out of both sides of the mouth.... but one side isn't talking what the other is preaching......

Michigan State's opponents went 90-60 this season.
Alabama's opponents went 100-56 this season.

Alabama played 9 teams that won 8 or more games.
Michigan State played 5 teams that won 8 or more games.

Alabama played 7 teams ranked at the time of the game.
Michigan State played 4 teams ranked at the time of the game.

You want to say it's more telling that 4 opponents finished the season in the top 15 because you know you lose the battle in SOS and opponents records.