First of all, let’s acknowledge it was an ill-advised thing for David Shaw to say, given how it would inevitably be spun, irrespective of how he meant it; and subsequent appeals to heritage, though legitimate, ring as hollow as the answers at a Cam Newton press conference. That said, I think people attacking Shaw over this are being a little unfair, for two key reasons: context, and numbers.
First, the context. It seems pretty clear that the phrase "SEC Country" never existed in Shaw's original comment, but rather was an F-Bomb graphic so egregiously altering the meaning of the quote that it
might almost make Maureen Dowd weep for journalistic integrity.
Now, the numbers. I think it's safe to assume that by "one person" Shaw meant "one recruit," because that's who his target customer is; football players, not other Stanford aspirants. Consider the following numbers:
- 2.4 - percentage of high school college football players who eventually play football at any DI school (source:scholarshipstatistics.com)
- 2.0 - approximate percent of all SAT scores that meet or exceed the average of a recent Stanford freshman class (sources: collegesimplify.com; prepscholar.com)
- 0.048 - assuming a normal distribution, and assuming that there is no positive or negative correlation between football skill and SAT scores, the percentage of high school football players also smart enough to produce the average Stanford SAT score. That's one in 2,083
Using data on high school football participation by state in the 2014/2015 school year from the National Federation of State High School Associations' website (yeah, I know: get a life already), and assuming for the sake of argument the 2083 ratio, in any given year:
- Three states would have more than five Stanford prospects each - CA, IL, and TX
- Three states would have five each - FL, MI, and OH
- Four states would have four each - AL, GA, NC and NY
- 10 states would have three each, including MO, MS, and TN
- 11 states would have two each, including KY, LA and SC
- 10 would have one each, including AR
- Nine would have zero. None is an SEC state
As we all know, 11 states are home to an SEC university. Again granting the two underlying assumptions, exactly one – Arkansas – would have fewer than two likely Stanford prospects, and only four would have three or fewer.
Finally, (no kidding, you’re muttering to yourself at this point in your reading), all 50 states combined would produce just 130 or so Stanford prospects per recruiting class. Shaw has to get almost 20% of them to come to the Farm, and he can’t afford to insult any of them intentionally. Absent proof that he did, in light of the context and the numbers, the right thing to do is to take him at his word.