Draft casualties

[JoJoforHeisman]

With the lone exception of corner infielder Austen Smith, every drafted recruit and underclassman has signed:

Jimmy Nelson, Brewers ($570,600)
Reggie Golden, Cubs ($720,000)
Josh Rutledge, Rockies ($295,000)
Wes Mugarian, Reds ($198,000)
Ross Wilson, White Sox ($115,000)
Jason Townsend, Pirates
Tyler White, Tigers


No real surprises, I don't guess, although it would have been nice to get Mugarian to school. Although Wilson might have actually benefited from returning for his senior season, there was also a pretty substantial risk of falling flat on his face and ending up with nothing.


As for drafted seniors, I was surprised to see the Phillies actually playing Jake Smith at third base rather immediately converting him into a full-time pitcher. Clearly, his best chance of making it in this game is as a reliever, because he's just not going to hit. He's a brilliant defensive third baseman, but professional pitchers are going to exploit the holes in his long swing and his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate. Through 20 games with Williamsport of the Short Season New York-Penn League, he's hitting an abysmal .134/.143/.224 with one walk and 30 strikeouts (67 at bats). If the Phillies are smart, they'll stop wasting time and get him on the mound as soon as possible.

 

[uabaseballdad]

Re: Draft casualties - update on Jason Townsend

I spoke with a Pittsburgh Pirates scout this weekend and he stated, after some minor mechanical changes, Jason Townsend's velocity is 94 - 96 and he is progressing very nicely. He commented, "not too bad for a 32nd round pick, we knew he could pitch but for whatever reason he seemed to be flying low on the radar screen, which helped our draft numbers".
Good news and Good luck to Jason!

 

[crimsonkelly]

Re: Draft casualties - update on Jason Townsend

I spoke with a Pittsburgh Pirates scout this weekend and he stated, after some minor mechanical changes, Jason Townsend's velocity is 94 - 96 and he is progressing very nicely. He commented, "not too bad for a 32nd round pick, we knew he could pitch but for whatever reason he seemed to be flying low on the radar screen, which helped our draft numbers".
Good news and Good luck to Jason!

Well, that tweaking your speaking of begs the question of why wasn't that done at UA of was it tried and no response from the player? Either way, good luck to him and I hope he does well with a long MLB career!

 

[crimsonkelly]

With the lone exception of corner infielder Austen Smith, every drafted recruit and underclassman has signed:

Jimmy Nelson, Brewers ($570,600)
Reggie Golden, Cubs ($720,000)
Josh Rutledge, Rockies ($295,000)
Wes Mugarian, Reds ($198,000)
Ross Wilson, White Sox ($115,000)
Jason Townsend, Pirates
Tyler White, Tigers


No real surprises, I don't guess, although it would have been nice to get Mugarian to school. Although Wilson might have actually benefited from returning for his senior season, there was also a pretty substantial risk of falling flat on his face and ending up with nothing.


As for drafted seniors, I was surprised to see the Phillies actually playing Jake Smith at third base rather immediately converting him into a full-time pitcher. Clearly, his best chance of making it in this game is as a reliever, because he's just not going to hit. He's a brilliant defensive third baseman, but professional pitchers are going to exploit the holes in his long swing and his hyper-aggressive approach at the plate. Through 20 games with Williamsport of the Short Season New York-Penn League, he's hitting an abysmal .134/.143/.224 with one walk and 30 strikeouts (67 at bats). If the Phillies are smart, they'll stop wasting time and get him on the mound as soon as possible.

I completely agree about Smith while a great 3rd baseman, his hitting has never been realized with the exception of when he had all sorts of protection around him and pitchers had to throw him strikes his junior season, it's easy to hit then.

 

[JoJoforHeisman]

I'm guessing Townsend flew under the radar mainly because he allowed 73 baserunners in just 39 innings pitched. Yet another example of how scouts will often place a higher value on velocity more than results (see also: White, Tyler). Townsend is still very much a thrower, but clearly the tools are there for the Pirates to turn him into a pitcher. He would have been a true asset last season had he been able to get that 94 mph heat over the plate more consistently.

 

[crimsonkelly]

I'm guessing Townsend flew under the radar mainly because he allowed 73 baserunners in just 39 innings pitched. Yet another example of how scouts will often place a higher value on velocity more than results (see also: White, Tyler). Townsend is still very much a thrower, but clearly the tools are there for the Pirates to turn him into a pitcher. He would have been a true asset last season had he been able to get that 94 mph heat over the plate more consistently.

point made (very well I might add).

 

[Bama210]

Obviously, a lot of things can and will change from today to next year's draft, but where do y'all think Taylor Dugas will be selected?

 

[Zona]

Mugarian could have come to school and at least tripled that, I would think

 

[JoJoforHeisman]

Obviously, a lot of things can and will change from today to next year's draft, but where do y'all think Taylor Dugas will be selected?

As unreasonable as it sounds, size is his greatest disadvantage. If Dugas was 6 feet tall, he'd be a sure-fire first rounder. It's probably fair to say that power is his only below-average tool. Maybe arm strength as well. A somewhat comparable player drafted recently would be Ben Revere, who was selected by the Twins 28th overall in the 2008 draft. At the time, this was considered an overdraft, as most organizations considered Revere to be a second or third round talent. Revere is a good ballplayer and has done well thus far as a professional, but Dugas is better across-the-board. Both Dugas and Revere have plus speed and the ability to hit for average with advanced on-base skills. Neither projects to hit for much home run power, but should send enough into the gaps to contribute plenty of doubles and triples. Defensively, Dugas is the far superior player (Revere has a terrible arm and takes questionable routes).

Obviously, this is just a rough comparison, and innumerable variables could come into play in determining where Dugas projects to go in next year's draft, but he should be a lock for the top five rounds, at least

 

[uabaseballdad]

JoJo, I think you are absolutely correct and he did struggle with on base %. Granted he was not very proficient last year. As a side note, I am not a family member or Townsend booster (only met him once last year) but simply relaying my conversation with a Pirate's scout and was surprised at his quick improvement.
However, you did bring up an interesting stat, base runners per innings pitched.
Listed below is the base runners per inning pitched from last year for a few of our returning pitchers:
Conference games only.
Peanut 0.94 ERA 3.04
Morgan 1.92 7.71
Wolfe 2.35 6.35
Smart 2.08 7.04
Whitiker 1.82 7.24
Hawley 1.96 8.38
Townsend 2.17 7.71 (for comparison purposes) (1.6 2.35 ERA at Class A short season) Very noticeable improvement but still very early in his career

I'm confident these numbers will improve next season; otherwise, we better play a lot of "dirtball" and "longball".

Be humble in victory and determined in defeat:

 

[RoyDMercer]

Couple of things, first the Townsend take in regards to " Scout drafting a guy on velo" You can't teach Velo !!! You can teach a guy how to pitch. Who was the pirates scout you speak of? Mazaraski? He lives in Panama City Fl and covers the area there as well. He has prolly been on jason since the Chipola days.

My take on Dugas, alot like Trent Mummey but no where near OBP % and a weaker arm.. Try comparing our outfielders arm strength against lets say, Florida? Not even close! I don't think he will be a top 5 round guy. Floridas Dendecker went in the 16th round so what does that tell ya

Just my humble opinion

 

[uabaseballdad]

RoyD, I think you are right on but hope we are wrong and he goes higher; however, anything above round 15 will be a surprise to me.
So much will depend on how well he is doing this summer using wood. Anyone know his stats over the summer?? Due to his small statue and perceived lack of power and average to below average arm strength (84 - 86mph), if his batting average suffers, with limited extra base hits, his draft status will suffer. I'm thinking rounds 15 - 20.
However, I like having him as our leadoff hitter!

 

[JoJoforHeisman]

Couple of things, first the Townsend take in regards to " Scout drafting a guy on velo" You can't teach Velo !!! You can teach a guy how to pitch. Who was the pirates scout you speak of? Mazaraski? He lives in Panama City Fl and covers the area there as well. He has prolly been on jason since the Chipola days.

My take on Dugas, alot like Trent Mummey but no where near OBP % and a weaker arm.. Try comparing our outfielders arm strength against lets say, Florida? Not even close! I don't think he will be a top 5 round guy. Floridas Dendecker went in the 16th round so what does that tell ya

Just my humble opinion

Maybe I'm reading this wrong, but are you saying that Dugas has nowhere near the OBP of Trent Mummey? Dugas led the SEC with a .525 OBP last season, with 59 walks and just 21 strikeouts. Mummey only played in 36 games and had a .434 OBP with 15 walks and 18 strikeouts. If you're talking about on-base skills, no other player in the conference comes close to Dugas. Mummey, of course, went in the 4th round. He has more power and arm strength than Dugas, but I'd give Dugas the advantage in AVG/OBP with a slight edge in speed, and outfield defense.

Matt den Dekker was drafted in the 5th round this year. He went in the 16th after a mediocre junior season in which his power disappeared and his strikeouts spiked. He's an outstanding defensive outfielder with a great arm; the question is whether he'll hit enough to make it.

I'm not following you on your Townsend point, either. Obviously you can't teach velocity. Nobody was suggesting that Townsend couldn't be taught how to pitch, or that he shouldn't have been drafted. The point was that he is an example of how velocity alone can provide a pitcher with opportunities that others may not have. Jason Neighborgall is a classic example. If Townsend threw 88 mph instead of 94 mph, with his lack of command or a decent second pitch, he wouldn't have even been pitching in the SEC in the first place, much less drafted.

 

[RoyDMercer]

JoJo

I'm saying, that there should be a higher value on pitchers with higher velocity. Velocity and body projection is the two things that matter most. Developed secondary pitches is a bonus for some scouts.

As far as Dugas is concerned, the writing is on the wall. If he has a decent year he will go 16 - 25th round. A Mummey or Dendecker type year like they had last year, top 5 rounds. I personally don't think he is there yet.

 

[jerms29]

Pittsburgh Pirates have a scouting program?

 

[TrampLineman]

What do we look like this year? I see who we lost (and it will hurt) but is any new kids coming in or did all of them sign?

 

[JoJoforHeisman]

JoJo

I'm saying, that there should be a higher value on pitchers with higher velocity. Velocity and body projection is the two things that matter most. Developed secondary pitches is a bonus for some scouts.

Very true. Although as you know, it's considerably less important for lefties. Only 7-10% of the population is left-handed, yet roughly one-third of the pitchers in professional baseball are left-handed. Since lefties are overrepresented in baseball and there will always be a premium on left-handed pitching, it's much easier to get an opportunity than it is for righties. Wade LeBlanc's average fastball in 2010 has been 86.6 mph. Had he been right-handed, even if he still had one of the great changeups on the planet, there is no way he would have been drafted in the second round.

 

[RoyDMercer]

JoJo, What do you think the value of a pitcher is just pitching in the SEC? Do you think it helps a kids draft status? Its a risky move for a good pitcher to even pitch in the SEC because even great pitchers get hit around in this league. Your thoughts?

 

[JoJoforHeisman]

JoJo, What do you think the value of a pitcher is just pitching in the SEC? Do you think it helps a kids draft status? Its a risky move for a good pitcher to even pitch in the SEC because even great pitchers get hit around in this league. Your thoughts?

I’d guess that if scouts consider a pitcher to be sufficiently projectable, he’ll get an opportunity no matter where he pitches. If a pitcher chooses to go to a smaller school and face weaker competition, there’s probably some added pressure to absolutely dominate, whereas pitching against the big hitters of the SEC allows a greater margin for error. If an organization is going to use an early draft pick on a college pitcher, they are expecting an advanced, polished product that can move quickly through the system. If a pitcher proves that he can succeed in the SEC, you know that he should at least be able to hold his own at High-A (maybe even Double-A) right away. On the other hand, if a prospect with all the projection in the world opts for the easy route and struggles, it could negatively affect his draft status.

The Cubs used their first round pick this year on Hayden Simpson from Division II Southern Arkansas, where he went 13-1/1.81 with 131 K’s in 99.1 innings. Pretty ridiculous numbers. As a 6 ft./190 righty with a low-90s fastball and four usable pitches, he probably doesn’t go anywhere near as high had he finished with, say, a 3.50 ERA and an average of even a strikeout per inning.

Justin Grimm, on the other hand, was a fifth round selection despite a miserable career at Georgia, given the scouting reports. In three years at UGA, he went 6-12 with a 5.80 ERA. His fastball is 90-94 mph and straight, he has occasional mechanical issues, serves up a ton of homers, and has an inconsistent, but decent curveball. If Grimm had put up those numbers at a school like Southern Arkansas, would he have even been noticed at all? Maybe, but I doubt he would have gone in the fifth round.

Thoughts?

 

[crimsonkelly]

I’d guess that if scouts consider a pitcher to be sufficiently projectable, he’ll get an opportunity no matter where he pitches. If a pitcher chooses to go to a smaller school and face weaker competition, there’s probably some added pressure to absolutely dominate, whereas pitching against the big hitters of the SEC allows a greater margin for error. If an organization is going to use an early draft pick on a college pitcher, they are expecting an advanced, polished product that can move quickly through the system. If a pitcher proves that he can succeed in the SEC, you know that he should at least be able to hold his own at High-A (maybe even Double-A) right away. On the other hand, if a prospect with all the projection in the world opts for the easy route and struggles, it could negatively affect his draft status.

The Cubs used their first round pick this year on Hayden Simpson from Division II Southern Arkansas, where he went 13-1/1.81 with 131 K’s in 99.1 innings. Pretty ridiculous numbers. As a 6 ft./190 righty with a low-90s fastball and four usable pitches, he probably doesn’t go anywhere near as high had he finished with, say, a 3.50 ERA and an average of even a strikeout per inning.

Justin Grimm, on the other hand, was a fifth round selection despite a miserable career at Georgia, given the scouting reports. In three years at UGA, he went 6-12 with a 5.80 ERA. His fastball is 90-94 mph and straight, he has occasional mechanical issues, serves up a ton of homers, and has an inconsistent, but decent curveball. If Grimm had put up those numbers at a school like Southern Arkansas, would he have even been noticed at all? Maybe, but I doubt he would have gone in the fifth round.

Thoughts?

Well, no doubt on Grimm on whether or not he would have been looked at with those numbers, but the 5th round even with #'s at UGA is still high imo. Overall its about size and "upside" with the pro sports now-a-days and because of this its why guys with talent and not necessarily the correct genes may or may not make it even though they should be there. Pathetic if you ask me....granted I was a victim of this going to college, so I'm am biases (and still have some sour grapes I guess )