Been a long day here on the boat. Obviously when we saw the initial reports it was like a gut punch knowing that lives were lost.
Here’s a few thoughts from my perspective and experience, mixed in with some of the reported facts.
1. From everything I’ve seen and read, the pilot and bridge team SAVED lives. They were able to communicate a MAYDAY to the coast guard in time for GC to notify local police/EMS. The police were able to stop traffic on one side of the bridge.
2. Don’t listen to any nuts talking about conspiracy theories, Capt being from Ukraine, nonsense. This was mechanical failure in the engine room IMO. You can see the exterior deck lights go out for about about 10 seconds and then come back on. Then go out again before impact. This is 95% probability of being generator failure related.
3. Actions taken in the wheelhouse will be revealed when the investigation gets moving and the VDR (voyage data recorder or black box) is reviewed.
Based on what you can see, I believe the ship lost steering completely. when the generator failure happened. Some systems take more time than others for backup steering to come online.
3.When you see the large amount of black smoke, that’s the ship being put full astern IMO. Trust me they were burning some fuel trying to slow that baby down.
4. You will see the port anchor is down, that likely didn’t help them or hurt them, but you if you decide slowing down is the best option you have to try it. I’m amazed at the reports of no injuries/fatalities to crew considering the amount of steel that came down on the bow. At least two crew would have been on the bow to drop the hook.
5. Arm chair Captaining will be all over the place. Here’s mine: Maybe, just maybe depending on the actual facts on scene, maybe backing down and dropping the hook . Watch closely and soon after you see the black smoke you will see the bow sheer to starboard towards the bridge abutment. This happens to a right turning prop smile screw boat when put astern. Normal it will be gradual and subtle but not full astern at 8 or so knots. This will be dissected by better boatmen than me for years. Depending on the angle of the rudder, if/when steering was restored maybe they should have gone full ahead scraped it along the length of the side of the ship.
6. The AIS data shows that the ship was STBD side to at the dock and turned around off the dock to head outbound. Once they got it turned and pointed south, the tugs were released and both started to head to either another job or a dock to tie up. At some point you see the closer of the two tugs rip a 180 and race south. Even had the tugs been left secured to the ship, at that speed they would have only been putting their own crew in danger by trying to work the ship.
I’m actually scheduled for an Advanced Shiphandling course this summer. It’s a course with 1/25 scale manned models of mostly single screw ships (I work on twin screw tugs) Several of the practice maneuvers are emergency steering/ anchor drop moves. I’m looking forward to the experience and I’m certain there will be some lessons taken away from it.