News Article: Good luck dealing with a pandemic, depending on this administration...
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The prediction based on the model for doubling every 4 days was for 2,000 cases and 64 deaths as of last night about 9 PM.
Real numbers were roughly 2,800 cases and right around 60 deaths in the US. Increased testing has found more cases. We can't figure the CFR based on that because it can take weeks for the disease to develop and run its course in each case. This is still far deadlier than flu, but far less deadly than Ebola.It is obviously easily spread as it is everywhere in the world.
These numbers are important and I did want to see how they compared to the doubling time that had been seen elsewhere. The numbers basically prove this is spreading at least as fast as we thought. We are test-limited right now, meaning that if we had more tests we would find even more cases. Most cases (roughly 80%) are mild, which does not take away from the seriousness of the situation.
I want to address a point I feel is important: We've had to waste too much time trying to get people to understand the seriousness of this disease. To do so we've had to repeat ad nauseum the quick spread around the world, the case fatality rates, projections of how many will be infected and how many will die, and so forth. That has caused some to say those of us sounding the alarm and the media have been alarmist. There's a reason for that: We have had to continue sounding the alarm in the face of a president and administration in this country who continually downplayed the disease and had many people far too willing to believe them over science. (now I know how climate scientists have felt, but let's not get distracted)
So we've had to continue beating that drum and ringing that bell. That has caused a few things. The time we wasted on getting people to believe this is serious could have been used to prepare people more both for how to take care of themselves (how to avoid infections, the need to have an adequate supply of food and other essentials at home) and for the measures that are and will be used to combat it (like severe travel restrictions and forced "social distancing"). The constant need to overcome disbelief by touting the numbers has also caused increased anxiety for many as they keep seeing and hearing dire predictions.
None of that had to be and is another consequence of poor leadership that did not take this seriously. It means many people were taken by surprise this week when state and local governments and businesses and sporting and other social events began to cancel large gatherings to slow the pandemic down. It means they weren't prepared like they needed to be. It means they had to experience more anxiety as they were "shocked" by the rapidly changing situation. It's why we saw panic buying instead of calm preparation. Sure, some people would panic anyway but the depth and breadth of panic increased because to these people the change was sudden and often times unexpected.
I've been more than a little angry about that because it didn't have to be. I feel badly for those who had a false sense of security shattered by the hidden reality and now have a heightened anxiety and depression. This would be hard enough without these added issues.
My mind has shifted over the last day or so from sounding the alarm to preparing people for what is to come - mass closings and forced social distancing (or isolation). It's what China had to do and now Italy, Spain, France, and others. It is beginning here with large gatherings and closed schools. Some locales in the US are implementing a mix of voluntary and forced measures to reduce social contact and spread of disease. Those measures will begin to tilt more toward forced restrictions on contact and travel and will spread out from the current hotspots across the country as we try to mitigate the impacts.
People are now anxious about the disease itself and about the economic impacts on families. Congress and the President need to get measures into place quickly to help people feel and be more secure. Paid sick leave and FMLA and other relief measures are needed.
This situation is similar to a war. We may even eventually see rationing due to shortages of essentials. In WWII they used ration stamps. People were issued stamps for certain goods and without the stamp you were not allowed to buy those goods that required them. Sugar and gasoline were included along with other items deemed essential. When and where these shortages occur and for how long can be predicted to some degree. It isn't clear how or when the government will respond to them.
The increase in cases shows us we are not even approaching the peak. That is at least several weeks away. The numbers will just reveal what was already there and should not cause any more fear. Also understand that limited testing will cause the numbers to be skewed toward the low end until there are enough tests to test anyone suspected of having it and their contacts if they do. With more testing it will eventually be possible to move from widespread to targeted measures, but that will take time and may be hampered by shortages of some materials needed for the tests.
Last night a friend passed along to me a statement by a pastor to their church that included a call to come to church even if officials urged against it as a control measure and even if such physical gatherings were forbidden to help control infection. I could name the church and pastor and some of you might know both, but I won't. I will tell you to ignore what people like that say and use your own brain to make decisions. One of the things God said he has given us rather than fear is a sound mind (2 Timothy 1:7) . God also said he would protect you from many things but not to test him (Matthew 4:7, Luke 4:12). So when people like this tell you to do something you know you shouldn't do and quote scripture about God protecting you or when you are frightened feel free to use those and others verses as a counter if you are so inclined. If it were me I'd find a new church to attend online and later in person.
If you are experiencing distress of any kind, please reach out for help. Your mental health is as important as the physical. We need to take care of ourselves and each other. Take as many breaks from the news as you need. In fact, take regular breaks from it so you don't get burned out. Keep yourself eating well and exercising. Check on family and friends. Stay in "touch". Distract yourself with music and movies and games. Just be good to yourself.
That's all for now.
Real numbers were roughly 2,800 cases and right around 60 deaths in the US. Increased testing has found more cases. We can't figure the CFR based on that because it can take weeks for the disease to develop and run its course in each case. This is still far deadlier than flu, but far less deadly than Ebola.It is obviously easily spread as it is everywhere in the world.
These numbers are important and I did want to see how they compared to the doubling time that had been seen elsewhere. The numbers basically prove this is spreading at least as fast as we thought. We are test-limited right now, meaning that if we had more tests we would find even more cases. Most cases (roughly 80%) are mild, which does not take away from the seriousness of the situation.
I want to address a point I feel is important: We've had to waste too much time trying to get people to understand the seriousness of this disease. To do so we've had to repeat ad nauseum the quick spread around the world, the case fatality rates, projections of how many will be infected and how many will die, and so forth. That has caused some to say those of us sounding the alarm and the media have been alarmist. There's a reason for that: We have had to continue sounding the alarm in the face of a president and administration in this country who continually downplayed the disease and had many people far too willing to believe them over science. (now I know how climate scientists have felt, but let's not get distracted)
So we've had to continue beating that drum and ringing that bell. That has caused a few things. The time we wasted on getting people to believe this is serious could have been used to prepare people more both for how to take care of themselves (how to avoid infections, the need to have an adequate supply of food and other essentials at home) and for the measures that are and will be used to combat it (like severe travel restrictions and forced "social distancing"). The constant need to overcome disbelief by touting the numbers has also caused increased anxiety for many as they keep seeing and hearing dire predictions.
None of that had to be and is another consequence of poor leadership that did not take this seriously. It means many people were taken by surprise this week when state and local governments and businesses and sporting and other social events began to cancel large gatherings to slow the pandemic down. It means they weren't prepared like they needed to be. It means they had to experience more anxiety as they were "shocked" by the rapidly changing situation. It's why we saw panic buying instead of calm preparation. Sure, some people would panic anyway but the depth and breadth of panic increased because to these people the change was sudden and often times unexpected.
I've been more than a little angry about that because it didn't have to be. I feel badly for those who had a false sense of security shattered by the hidden reality and now have a heightened anxiety and depression. This would be hard enough without these added issues.
My mind has shifted over the last day or so from sounding the alarm to preparing people for what is to come - mass closings and forced social distancing (or isolation). It's what China had to do and now Italy, Spain, France, and others. It is beginning here with large gatherings and closed schools. Some locales in the US are implementing a mix of voluntary and forced measures to reduce social contact and spread of disease. Those measures will begin to tilt more toward forced restrictions on contact and travel and will spread out from the current hotspots across the country as we try to mitigate the impacts.
People are now anxious about the disease itself and about the economic impacts on families. Congress and the President need to get measures into place quickly to help people feel and be more secure. Paid sick leave and FMLA and other relief measures are needed.
This situation is similar to a war. We may even eventually see rationing due to shortages of essentials. In WWII they used ration stamps. People were issued stamps for certain goods and without the stamp you were not allowed to buy those goods that required them. Sugar and gasoline were included along with other items deemed essential. When and where these shortages occur and for how long can be predicted to some degree. It isn't clear how or when the government will respond to them.
The increase in cases shows us we are not even approaching the peak. That is at least several weeks away. The numbers will just reveal what was already there and should not cause any more fear. Also understand that limited testing will cause the numbers to be skewed toward the low end until there are enough tests to test anyone suspected of having it and their contacts if they do. With more testing it will eventually be possible to move from widespread to targeted measures, but that will take time and may be hampered by shortages of some materials needed for the tests.
Last night a friend passed along to me a statement by a pastor to their church that included a call to come to church even if officials urged against it as a control measure and even if such physical gatherings were forbidden to help control infection. I could name the church and pastor and some of you might know both, but I won't. I will tell you to ignore what people like that say and use your own brain to make decisions. One of the things God said he has given us rather than fear is a sound mind (2 Timothy 1:7) . God also said he would protect you from many things but not to test him (Matthew 4:7, Luke 4:12). So when people like this tell you to do something you know you shouldn't do and quote scripture about God protecting you or when you are frightened feel free to use those and others verses as a counter if you are so inclined. If it were me I'd find a new church to attend online and later in person.
If you are experiencing distress of any kind, please reach out for help. Your mental health is as important as the physical. We need to take care of ourselves and each other. Take as many breaks from the news as you need. In fact, take regular breaks from it so you don't get burned out. Keep yourself eating well and exercising. Check on family and friends. Stay in "touch". Distract yourself with music and movies and games. Just be good to yourself.
That's all for now.
After seeing a story from a few days ago about people in India having to fight monkeys for food, we started watching the new Planet of the Apes trilogy. It was a virus that killed off the humans in this version of the Ape movies. “Rise†is good but “Dawn†and “War†are great movies.
My kids had never seen these movies before and they have enjoyed the first 2. We finish up tonight with “War for the Planet of the Apesâ€Â, an amazing movie.
We did have to explain to my 10 yo son that the Simian Flu in the movies was fictional. He asked if we could get it.
from what i hear, tons of folks were out at restaurants and bars all over the city here yesterday. i don't think it's dawning on a lot of folks yet what social distancing means.
i went to kroger this morning at 6am to get a bunch of food and the store wasn't too crowded and pretty well stocked (they had everything on our list).
we are sort of homebodies anyway so the distancing part shouldn't be too challenging for us
i went to kroger this morning at 6am to get a bunch of food and the store wasn't too crowded and pretty well stocked (they had everything on our list).
we are sort of homebodies anyway so the distancing part shouldn't be too challenging for us
I mean just....wow...
I'm sure most of us know he feels this way but to basically say AGAIN that people taking safety precautions is a scare tactic (because he's still stupid enough to think it's a hoax) and that's it's all irrelevant or secondary to the MOST important thing which is him holding onto 4 more years of power.
The BRASS on this Son of a....*bites tongue*....gun.....
This is being spread largely by people in their 20's in western countries. They feel immortal and just keep living their lives as if this is not happening. That is why countries are being forced to shut down bars and restaurants.
Coronavirus: Why it’s so deadly in Italy
the sad thing is a bunch of folks in this country will take this as gospel.
I would really avoid restaurants and bars. Open places where total strangers are around things you put in your mouth are not good places to be.
A high school friend who lives in Nashville posted some pictures on Facebook. It was from the city’s nightlife district that showed it was crowded with young people.
A high school friend who lives in Nashville posted some pictures on Facebook. It was from the city’s nightlife district that showed it was crowded with young people.
I keep hearing people say more and more that this will go away in warmer weather. The problem I have with this statement is there are cases of this in warm places. There are 6 confirmed cases in Hawaii.
In Mobile they cancelled the St. Patty's parade. But the bar involved still had a huge party. Mayor Stimpson said they didn't have the authority to stop them. I guess not, but if they won't stop on their own, then the government needs to step in. Lord knows I'm a limited government type, but its going to take a form of marshall law because our populace is far from smart. They way it spreads, I think it might be the only way.This is being spread largely by people in their 20's in western countries. They feel immortal and just keep living their lives as if this is not happening. That is why countries are being forced to shut down bars and restaurants.
Coronavirus: Why it’s so deadly in Italy
Being an individualist society has its drawbacks when it comes to this. Many societies that honor their elders more wouldn't balk as much as we do.
If this has been said, sorry, I didn't read the other 90 something pages 🙃
I was supposed to go downtown this week. I cancelled last week. Nope. I can drink at home!
In my daughter's village in the French Alps, one pizza restaurant is ignoring the order. The other owners are watching to see what happens. There, it didn't make a lot of difference. After the ski slopes closed, the village started emptying out. They are just about the only full-service restaurant open in the offseason, anyway. The French order exempted takeout, which my daughter didn't find out until lunch today had passed. The lady who owns the fiacre franchise opened also. My daughter commented dryly that she guessed horses and carriages were essential to French culture...This is being spread largely by people in their 20's in western countries. They feel immortal and just keep living their lives as if this is not happening. That is why countries are being forced to shut down bars and restaurants.
Coronavirus: Why it’s so deadly in Italy
I had the understanding that in a public health emergency extreme measures could be taken including limiting social gatherings.
Alabama goes from 0 cases to 12 in a matter of 48 hours.
Oh they are....and this pretty much confirms for me that Trump is now without question the most dangerous and reckless 'leader' in the history of this country.
The office he holds *should* be THE LEADING VOICE in guiding the people of this country towards caution and proper safety/sanitary practices to minimize the threat and damage as much as possible.
But instead his is constantly dismissive of the scope and severity of the situation and MISLEADING people into a false sense of security during what is on pace to be one of the worst if not the worst viral pandemic that North America has ever been exposed to....
He is a Presidential Oath Breaker if not an outright TRAITOR to this country's citizens.....He is THE DEFINITION of a DOMESTIC THREAT.
I just saw a story where people in Savannah were lined up to watch a parade that wasn’t happening.
When all this is over and their aren’t millions of deaths, people will say shutting everything down was an overreaction. I guess the possibility the massive shutdowns prevented millions of deaths won’t occur to them.
When all this is over and their aren’t millions of deaths, people will say shutting everything down was an overreaction. I guess the possibility the massive shutdowns prevented millions of deaths won’t occur to them.
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