"Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave."
This means two things - if we end our social distancing policy too soon, this model goes out the window because the second wave would be automatic because we would not be in a position to track everyone who gets this because we would not have wiped out the community spread. So, end the existing policies too soon and it ramps right back up again.
It also means that we will need two things to happen to avoid another wave - continued self distancing in public and other reasonable precautions (wear some type of facemask, wipe surfaces, wash hands, etc.) until we have a vaccine. This is necesary in order to be able to track contacts. To track contacts, you have to minimize contacts. We do this while also testing anyone who even suspects they might have been exposed - no criteria other than thinking that they might have been exposed. With 97% of the population still at risk, if we do less we will have a second wave. It might not be as big, but it would require a second shutdown of the economy, and that would destroy morale.
