How good is Cincy?

[selmaborntidefan]

Another reminder: Cincinnati's win over Notre Dame came with an off week while the Irish were gaining three yards rushing against Wisconsin.

I remain unimpressed, but enough rat poison, too.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

One more thing: I DO think Fickel is an outstanding coach with a bright future.

 

[TideEngineer08]

We just need to have respect for the game and respect for the opponent. Play smart. And if the OL really has settled behind the moves at C and RT, then we ought to be fine.

 

[CrimsonNagus]

They have almost everyone back from last year.. they have a lot of juniors, seniors, and grad transfers. They have some NFL caliber players. They will be tough, at least for 3 quarters. They will be listening to the media all month about how they "don't have a chance", etc. They play the same defense as Arkansas and Ole Miss. Fickell will have them ready. Bama needs to have the same mindset they had v UGA.

I hope we win by double digits, but will take a 1 point win if it means NO INJURIES IN THE GAME.

I disagree with the bolded section. This game should be all but over at halftime if Bama doesn't "look ahead." Most guys on ESPN and FS1 have been giving a lot of praise to Cincy and giving them a good chance to win. This is going to be the narrative for the next 4 weeks: "despite the UGA game, Bama is down this year and Cincy has a good shot if they pressure BY." I say fine, give Saban the yummy rat poison.

If they play the same defense as Arkansas and Ole Miss then it is over. We will score 40+ and no way they come close to scoring that much. Cincy is a running team, something this defense has been pretty good at stopping. If this becomes a through the air shootout, BY will carve them up and Cincy will struggle to kick FGs.

Cincy ranks #44 in total offense, and that is with their cupcake AAC schedule. Yes, they rank #7 in total defense, and many will point to this but, that is against their weak AAC schedule. Why is their total defense so high, look at the total offensive rankings of the teams they have played:

M-OH - 51
MUR - FCS
IU - 124
ND - 55
TEM - 125
UCF - 68
Navy - 126
Tulane - 75
Tulsa - 35
USF - 102
SMU - 13 (don't hang your hat here, they played an even worse schedule, still only finished 4-4 in conf.)
ECU - 39
HOU - 58

Like I said in another thread, if this was a regular season game it would be one where the season ticket holders give their tickets away. Group of 5 teams do not deserve to be sitting at this table, it is a joke. I will never understand why the media has wanted cupcake teams to "have their shot". Yes, occasionally they beat a power 5 team. Occasionally an FCS team does as well so why not give them a shot in the CFP. What if these media folks were demanding that AAA baseball teams be allowed to compete for the WS. No one would give them the time of day but, in college football it is a valid argument. That's how crazy this is to me.

It's all non sense, especially when anyone who talks Cincy up has to preface it with "if Bama doesn't show up". Like the Braves had to do, Bama needs to end the narrative. Don't take them lightly, turn this into a playing the backups in the 3rd quarter type of game. Send the group of 5s back to the kids table where they belong.

Anyway, I turned off ESPN/FS1 late yesterday and vowed to not watch another second of those hype talk shows. I'm already tired of the narrative being built. All the "this is Cincy's day, celebrate Cincy and the g5". Why, because we let a minor league team into the WS? That's not a cause for celebration, it's a moment to.




P.S. Bama, please don't make me eat crow for my stance, show up and finish this early.

 

[jthomas666]

It appears that a lot of us watched at least part of the ND-Cincy game last night.

I see a disciplined, swarming defense with an undersized DL and good secondary play. Running up the middle might be a viable option for us.

A very inconsistent QB--though he does have the traits that can give us fits if he goes on a tear. His passes tend to hang up a bit.

Undersized OL.

For all the weaknesses, they play hard and will not back down. We'll need to take them seriously.

 

[CrimsonNagus]

We just need to have respect for the game and respect for the opponent. Play smart. And if the OL really has settled behind the moves at C and RT, then we ought to be fine.

The team, yes. Me, no.

G5 teams should not be eligible for the CFP.

 

[Tideflyer]

Yeah, but there IS something to the JHS voodoo, too, that makes no sense. Even when we beat them there, it's often a brutal war. 2011 was the only real exception. Even in 2015 they were down and nearly out and that bonehead made that bobble carry catch for the "it's not over yet" touchdown.

I don`t think there can be any question that they are a different team psychologically in JH, especially against us. Plus, I can`t recall any game in JH where I thought we were hyped up mentally. We seem to always have a " just another game " approach psychologically when we go there to play. At least it appears that way to me.

 

[TideEngineer08]

The team, yes. Me, no.

G5 teams should not be eligible for the CFP.

Yes I mean the team. Not us, the fans.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

It appears that a lot of us watched at least part of the ND-Cincy game last night.

I see a disciplined, swarming defense with an undersized DL and good secondary play. Running up the middle might be a viable option for us.

A very inconsistent QB--though he does have the traits that can give us fits if he goes on a tear. His passes tend to hang up a bit.

Undersized OL.

For all the weaknesses, they play hard and will not back down. We'll need to take them seriously.

Agree with all this.

Their entire team looks undersized.

The one thing I question: was their secondary play really that good or were the Irish QBs that BAD? Because they didn't look that good, either.

I'd call them decent. Nobody will mistake their secondary for Minkah or Eddie or Patrick Peterson or Mark Barron, but they're serviceable for their schedule.

Sounds like maybe we should have had a TF watch party last night.

 

[Down4ttown]

They ain’t Georgia….

 

[OSUTideFan]

One more thing: I DO think Fickel is an outstanding coach with a bright future.

He does more with less. That’s exactly what you want to see in a coach.
Alabama wins this one handily on its way to title 19.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

. I will never understand why the media has wanted cupcake teams to "have their shot".

I've touched on this before, and IN MY OPINION it is largely because of the following construct:
a) these people work in video media
b) thus they are always looking for "good stories"
c) one of the favored stories is "We saw the 'Bad News Bears' happen in real life."

well and...

d) America loves an underdog


It's a combination of where they work and they society in which they live if I may sound like a psychoanalyst for a minute (as opposed to my usual psycho analysis of football). And there's another thing that drives it: they want to be THE PERSON WHO PREDICTED THIS WOULD HAPPEN.

Basically, everyone wants to be Joe Namath at Super Bowl III mixed with "this would make a great movie" and topped with American society's infatuation with rugged individualism and the Little Engine That Could.

That's all it is.

They'll deserve the time of day when one of them bets a million-dollar home two years out that this will happen. Otherwise, they get to live forever on the notion of "If I predicted it and it worked, I'm a genius, but if I predicted it and it failed, nobody will ever remember it anyway."

 

[Krymsonman]

I don't care who the other team is. This is the final four. If we don't show up ready to play, we can get beat. Hopefully, this BAMA team now knows what it takes to play their best.

 

[Tidewater]

We know about the famous Boise State victory over #7 Oklahoma by one point. Obviously Oklahoma did not play their best game. Ironically one of the more lopsided of these sort of games was the 2009 Sugar Bowl where Alabama clearly did not want to be there and Utah took advantage. JPW was pretty bad in that game, throwing 2 interceptions and Alabama's offense didn't show up, gaining only 208 yards. I doubt that happens this game.

The key thing about the games you mentioned was that it was a "consolation game." OU vs Smurf U, Bama vs Utah was clearly a let-down for the superior team. They had missed out and were given a lower-tiered game against a nontraditional P5 opponent and the game meant nothing but pride. OU and Bama played like their attitude was "Aw shucks, we missed out on the national championship game. Now all we get is Boise (or, in Bama's case, Utah). If we beat them, everyone will say, 'big whoop. You beat a team you should have beaten.'" There is no upside for the favorite in a game like that.

In this game, you win, you advance to the final and play for the national championship.

Then again, Bama's last game against Clempson showed that, even with the national championship on the line, sometimes Coach Saban lays a motivational egg. That Bama team was not motivated for some reason and got embarrassed on global television. Could happen against Cincie as well (but I doubt it).

 

[92tide]

Most people in the know seem to think this year's (2021) Cincy team is actually a little weaker than last years (2020) squad. AAC collectively was very down though.

They've got some NFL players on their defense (respectable DL, although not what you usually see in the SEC) and some decent corners.

Their offensive line is going to have a hard time block us, IMO. Desmond Ritter is pretty mediocre at QB.

I think it looks a lot like our 2016 win over Washington in the semifinals.

i hope our o output is better than that

 

[selmaborntidefan]

The key thing about the games you mentioned was that it was a "consolation game." OU vs Smurf U, Bama vs Utah was clearly a let-down for the superior team. They had missed out and were given a lower-tiered game against a nontraditional P5 opponent and the game meant nothing but pride. OU and Bama played like their attitude was "Aw shucks, we missed out on the national championship game. Now all we get is Boise (or, in Bama's case, Utah). If we beat them, everyone will say, 'big whoop. You beat a team you should have beaten.'" There is no upside for the favorite in a game like that.

In this game, you win, you advance to the final and play for the national championship.

Then again, Bama's last game against Clempson showed that, even with the national championship on the line, sometimes Coach Saban lays a motivational egg. That Bama team was not motivated for some reason and got embarrassed on global television. Could happen against Cincie as well (but I doubt it).

Exactly.

And lest anyone think this is some sort of recent BCS Era excuse, I've found multiple instances with my old newspaper subscriptions where team after team says the same thing - that's it unfair to include the bowl games ESPECIALLY when the national title vote was the first week of December. After all - as many coaches said - "we've already won the national championship so who cares while the other team comes in looking for a chance to make their name by beating the national champion."

And it's essentially the same thing.

Alabama beats Utah? Nobody even remembers it.
Utah beats Alabama? "Look how GREAT Utah is, they could win the national championship!"

What's funny is I have video of home of Lee Corso after the New Year's Day 1991 games talking about whether Colorado or Georgia Tech was #1. Corso flat out dismissed Georgia Tech, saying that the fact they beat Nebraska by more points than CU was irrelevant because CU played in Lincoln against a full strength and motivated Nebraska while Tech had motivation and Nebraska did not. He went through the usual list and basically said Tech had no business getting consideration for the title regardless - including the old "Colorado's win over Notre Dame is more impressive than any team Tech even faced." As he also pointed out - Colorado faced a Notre Dame team that may have had two losses but prepped for that game knowing it was at least possible they could still win the national championship by beating the Buffs while Osborne was getting ready for 1991 and that's who Tech played.

Same basic argument.

 

[TideEngineer08]

I think our 2018 team that got mauled by Clemson was a one trick pony that got exposed more than anything.

 

[CoolBreeze]

This is arguably Nick's best coaching job with this group. We are not going to disrespect Cincy by going into the game unprepared like UGA did last year. We will handle them in pretty convincing fashion IMHO. The game will really heat up the 12 team playoff argument because, as good as they are in their league, the Bearcats simply do not belong on the same field with a P5 school gunning for a National Championship. At least in a 12 team lineup they might win a game but any of the other three teams this year overmatch them significantly.

 

[BamaHoosier]

I saw Cincy live when they played Indiana. It was a top 15 matchup then, now IU is getting refunded coaching raises because of how poorly the season went. (True story)

That day an eventual 3 win B1G team had a legit shot at beating a playoff team until mid-4th. That’s despite multiple turnovers, giving up a kickoff for a touchdown, and a largely inept offense. Not knowing then how bad IU was then, I walked away mildly impressed with Cincy. Now I take it with a grain of salt.

From what I observed, their offense is average. They have a solid front 7 that swarms the ball. They also have future NFL corners that are opportunistic. Their D isn’t a fluke and they have nothing to lose. I expect their scheme will be in line with Auburn. A lot of complicated looks and kitchen sink blitzes to confuse our OL.

With that said, we’ve seen plenty of defenses like theirs. They’ve yet to see an offense like ours. If we keep BY clean, we hold a huge advantage.

They are a veteran team, playing with both something to prove and a ton of confidence. Is this a game where we could lose as a fluke? Maybe. But what the talking heads won’t admit is that will only happen if we keep them in the game. This isn’t a game Cincy can win, it’s only a game Bama can lose.

I’ve yet to see a Saban team that came in unprepared after a month off. So I’ll be beyond shocked if that happens.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think our 2018 team that got mauled by Clemson was a one trick pony that got exposed more than anything.

Clemson was also light years better than Cincinnati is.