How Xi and Putin’s new friendship could test the US

[CrimsonJazz]

Ditto.

Not sure why that is, though I can't help but wonder if China hasn't been buying allegiances.

Considering the size of their national debt, they've been buying something. I suspect they've bought more than their fair share of our politicians which is worrisome enough as it is.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The Chinese have clearly indicated their unhappiness with Putin's announced installation of nukes in Belarus...

 

[Go Bama]

The Chinese have clearly indicated their unhappiness with Putin's announced installation of nukes in Belarus...

I wasn't aware the Chinese were unhappy with Putin. I came across this article which confirms what you have said.

How Putin’s Belarus nuke plan tangles China’s Ukraine peace push

The Russian and Chinese presidents vowed just last week to not station nuclear weapons abroad.

www.scmp.com

Putin’s announcement to station nuclear weapons abroad for the first time since the mid-1990s came after he pledged in a joint statement with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Moscow on Tuesday not to do so.
“All nuclear-weapon states should refrain from deploying nuclear weapons outside their territories and should withdraw those deployed outside their territories,” the document says.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Putin is unpredictable, often playing checkers while the Chinese are playing chess. Instant gratification vs long game.

 

[AWRTR]

Putin is unpredictable, often playing checkers while the Chinese are playing chess. Instant gratification vs long game.

China was playing the long game, but their communist stupidity wrecked their demographics so they may have to shorten the game. I have heard several "experts", for what they may be worth, talking about how China's window is closing and they are going to decline rather quickly over the next 15-20 years.

 

[4Q Basket Case]

I agree that China’s leaders have wrecked their demographics, but so have Russia’s. Both countries are on their last legs. Only one has compounded its LT demographic problem by bleeding young men (i.e., the guys who do work and father children) at a massive rate.

That said, I don’t think China and Russia are friends. Far from it. China is knocking on Russia’s back door while Russia has committed every bit of its conventional capability to Ukraine — and is struggling mightily.

Good summary from Peter Zeihan:

 

[TIDE-HSV]

The Chinese have clearly indicated their unhappiness with Putin's announced installation of nukes in Belarus...

Which turns out to be a lie. Read Nadin's post in the invasion thread...

 

[crimsonaudio]

Good summary from Peter Zeihan:

Wow, yeah.

Russia's in a worse spot than I thought, and I thought they were in a tailspin already...

 

[AWRTR]

I feel like the Russia China relationship is like two snakes trying to figure out which one will bite the other one first going back to the Cold War.

 

[twofbyc]

China is doing more than rattling sabers, and I don’t think they wait until 2025 to retake Taiwan.
I know the projects are underway, but our government needs to stop the posturing and start screening immigrants for construction jobs at the new chip factories. And while their at it, fast track/suspend all required paperwork (environmental or otherwise - never thought I’d say that) and regulations, other than building codes, to get these things up and running yesterday.
Everybody saw what happened during Covid; that wasn’t a fraction of what will happen if chips suddenly stop coming from Taiwan. Our economy will get crushed because it won’t affect just cars this time.
The ONLY thing Trump did right in four years was to stand up to China on trade; but he folded like a cheap suit, just as expected. You do not “negotiate “ with China; you give them terms they either take or leave, or you’ll lose.
Nixon made a colossal blunder, and over the decades the result has been a world power poised to take control of the world economically, where it can’t militarily. It is working diligently to change the latter, and isn’t decades away from doing so unless something changes.
Russia has most of the world’s attention right now- just the way China likes it.

 

[81usaf92]

China is doing more than rattling sabers, and I don’t think they wait until 2025 to retake Taiwan.
I know the projects are underway, but our government needs to stop the posturing and start screening immigrants for construction jobs at the new chip factories. And while their at it, fast track/suspend all required paperwork (environmental or otherwise - never thought I’d say that) and regulations, other than building codes, to get these things up and running yesterday.
Everybody saw what happened during Covid; that wasn’t a fraction of what will happen if chips suddenly stop coming from Taiwan. Our economy will get crushed because it won’t affect just cars this time.
The ONLY thing Trump did right in four years was to stand up to China on trade; but he folded like a cheap suit, just as expected. You do not “negotiate “ with China; you give them terms they either take or leave, or you’ll lose.
Nixon made a colossal blunder, and over the decades the result has been a world power poised to take control of the world economically, where it can’t militarily. It is working diligently to change the latter, and isn’t decades away from doing so unless something changes.
Russia has most of the world’s attention right now- just the way China likes it.

If China tries to retake Taiwan then it would be a dumber decision than Russia invading Ukraine. Which is precisely why I seriously doubt they try it. Xi acts more as a Deng Mao hybrid with more of a Deng big decision making process. Keeping the conversation going about Taiwan is more profitable than seeing an outdated army trying an amphibious assault on an island nation that really gains you nothing but an international headache.

 

[Tidewater]

Ditto.

Not sure why that is, though I can't help but wonder if China hasn't been buying allegiances.

I'm sure the US was twisting arms behind the scenes, telling the country whose arm was being twisted, "Look, treat China like a normal country and they will start acting like a normal country. And China demands that we not recognize Taiwan, so drop your recognition of Taiwan."
That is how US foreign policy is done.

 

[Tidewater]

If China tries to retake Taiwan then it would be a dumber decision than Russia invading Ukraine. Which is precisely why I seriously doubt they try it. Xi acts more as a Deng Mao hybrid with more of a Deng big decision making process. Keeping the conversation going about Taiwan is more profitable than seeing an outdated army trying an amphibious assault on an island nation that really gains you nothing but an international headache.

USAF reservist says Taiwan can't win.
There is 'no situation' where Taiwan can defend itself against China the way Ukraine has fought against Russia, says APAC security expert
She works at US INDOPACOM plans.

 

[Tidewater]

I would add that China gets its oil through the Straits of Malacca, and stopping the flow of that oil would be really easy. The effect on China's economy would be like yanking up on your car's hand brake while driving at 70 mph on the interstate.

 

[CrimsonJazz]

I would add that China gets its oil through the Straits of Malacca, and stopping the flow of that oil would be really easy. The effect on China's economy would be like yanking up on your car's hand brake while driving at 70 mph on the interstate.

That is a very interesting observation. How would China react to something like that?

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I would add that China gets its oil through the Straits of Malacca, and stopping the flow of that oil would be really easy. The effect on China's economy would be like yanking up on your car's hand brake while driving at 70 mph on the interstate.

What percentage do they get from Siberia? I know they're in talks now with the Russians about a new pipeline. Funny how frosty their relations were with Russia after Russia dropped communism. Then when Russia goes fascist...

 

[Tidewater]

What percentage do they get from Siberia? I know they're in talks now with the Russians about a new pipeline...

They are, but that will take time.

 

[Tidewater]

That is a very interesting observation. How would China react to something like that?

Not sure there's much they could do about it. It would probably be like Nazi Germany after losing the Ploesti oilfields in Romania. They started turning coal into oil and started converting cars to burning wood (not making that up).
Or the Japanese at Leyte Gulf. Once the Americans took the Philippines, they isolated Japan from the oilfields in the Dutch East Indies. Admiral Toyoda put it this way: "Should we lose the Philippines, ... even though the fleet should be left, the shipping lane to the south would be completely cut off so that the fleet, if it should come back to Japanese waters, could not obtain its fuel supply. If it should remain in southern waters it could not receive supplies of ammunition and arms. There would be no sense in saving the fleet at the expense of the Philippines."'
So the Japanese sent their fleet out on a suicidal attack on the Americans. I suspect the Chinese would be in a similar situation should they attack Taiwan.

 

[TIDE-HSV]

Not sure there's much they could do about it. It would probably be like Nazi Germany after losing the Ploesti oilfields in Romania. They started turning coal into oil and started converting cars to burning wood (not making that up).
Or the Japanese at Leyte Gulf. Once the Americans took the Philippines, they isolated Japan from the oilfields in the Dutch East Indies. Admiral Toyoda put it this way: "Should we lose the Philippines, ... even though the fleet should be left, the shipping lane to the south would be completely cut off so that the fleet, if it should come back to Japanese waters, could not obtain its fuel supply. If it should remain in southern waters it could not receive supplies of ammunition and arms. There would be no sense in saving the fleet at the expense of the Philippines."'
So the Japanese sent their fleet out on a suicidal attack on the Americans. I suspect the Chinese would be in a similar situation should they attack Taiwan.

No, you're not. My former next door neighbor, the former NAZI physicist, explained to me how it worked. It took a lot of wood...

 

[dtgreg]

Not sure there's much they could do about it. It would probably be like Nazi Germany after losing the Ploesti oilfields in Romania. They started turning coal into oil and started converting cars to burning wood (not making that up).
Or the Japanese at Leyte Gulf. Once the Americans took the Philippines, they isolated Japan from the oilfields in the Dutch East Indies. Admiral Toyoda put it this way: "Should we lose the Philippines, ... even though the fleet should be left, the shipping lane to the south would be completely cut off so that the fleet, if it should come back to Japanese waters, could not obtain its fuel supply. If it should remain in southern waters it could not receive supplies of ammunition and arms. There would be no sense in saving the fleet at the expense of the Philippines."'
So the Japanese sent their fleet out on a suicidal attack on the Americans. I suspect the Chinese would be in a similar situation should they attack Taiwan.

The Supply Chain Impact of China Invading Taiwan - Interos

Will China invade Taiwan? Learn the reasons it may or may not happen, the full potential impact of China invading Taiwan, and how to prepare your organization.

www.interos.ai

I apologize if I missed this link posted earlier. Basically, the Russians and Chinese are running the old Hitler playbook of "bluster and see what you can get for free".

The only way (sans insanity) that I can see us beieving their threat is if they can source their energy supply and chip supply infinitely better than we can. If they ever can mount a realistic challenge, we'll hand Taiwan over. I don't see it, however.