Obviously, the guilt of innocence of an accused rapist has to be determined by a jury of his peers.
Some of the factors that would weigh on my decision, if I was a juror would be:
1. Recency. If the victims goes to law enforcement/a hospital immediately after the assault, that would seem to me to indicate sincerity of the accusation. Waiting weeks, months or years lessens the credibility of the assertion that the incident was rape.
2. Harm to the victim's body, especially internally, would seem to me to indicate nonconsensual contact.
Both of these were present in the Winston case. That does not mean Winston is a rapist, but he certainly merited extremely close scrutiny by the authorities.
3. The relationship the victim had with the accused rapist before and after the incident. Not that a husband cannot rape his wife, but if the victim maintains a close personal relationship with the alleged rapist after the rape, that would undermine the victim's accusation of rape. On the other hand, a spurned lover who in turn says, "Oh yeah? Well, I'm going to call the cops and tell that the sex we had last week was rape!" Anyone who has gone through a divorce knows how spiteful former partners can be.
4. Audio or video recorded evidence of the incident (if any). Again, not to be graphic, but a woman yelling, "Yes, yes, yes!" during the act who, the next morning, says it was rape would lack credibility in my eyes. You do not get to turn post facto buyer's remorse into a criminal accusation.
And I agree that incompetence on the part of FSU police, Tallahassee Police and the State's Attorney's Office does not prove anything other than incompetence on the part of FSU police, Tallahassee Police and the State's Attorney's Office. It neither proves nor disproves Winston's guilt or innocence.
The problem with the bold is that in most cases folks just want to go home and "forget" it (I don't mean to sound calloused folks). It's when the PTSD kicks in that it comes out to a friend/counselor a lot of times.
I saw a lot in the military. One particular issue went like this:
Female recruit (not yet active duty) was raped by the recruiter. Didn't say anything. Months later in her same hometown (after she was in the **), she tells a female friend of hers to call her if she needs a ride home or anything. Recruiter rapes the new girl, too. Nothing is said and months go by. One day as she's prepping for her final exam for Air Traffic Control, AFOSI (the ** version of the FBI) pulls her out of class and reads her her rights and asks if she was raped by this recruiter. Basically, girl #2 gave her name to the investigators. She conceded he did and wound up testifying against the guy she'd basically let go. After this she began having all kinds of PTSD symptoms, etc, and you can imagine how dangerous that is for an ATC at a pilot training base. The military - in their infinite wisdom - denied her VA benefits because (are you ready for this?) since the rape occurred BEFORE she actually enlisted, it was classified a "pre-existing condition." She fought for about seven years and finally got a 50% disability check and huge lump sum back pay. (Yes, even though it was THEIR recruiter DURING her recruitment it was "a pre-existing condition." SMH.
Winston may have raped the girl. The one thing I'd say weighs in his favor so far is that it hasn't occurred again (to my knowledge).
He may not have raped the girl.
I think there's a tendency of some CFB fans to think the absolute worst about the other schools and best about their own. (I've been convinced that MOST of the belly aching over Cam had more to do with him winning the national title than anything else; if he got paid on a 5-7 team that Alabama beats, who cares?). So Bama fans can disparage FSU's title as tainted and Auburn's title as tainted and Florida's as tainted because, you know, Urban Meyer ran an insane asylum down there (anyone noticing a pattern here? "We win fairly, they cheat!"). LSU's is tainted because, you know, two losses, and USC's whole dynasty is in question because Reggie Bush and Ohio State 2002 because, you know, Jim Tressel; and Nebraska's dynasty doesn't count because Lawrence Phillips and FSU's Bowden dynasty is overrated because Peter Warrick and Free Shoes U (two diff scandals), and Penn State's wins don't count because Paterno was evil, and Lou Holtz's wins don't count because he got every school where he coached put on probation, and Colorado's doesn't count because Fifth Down, and Miami's 80s dynasty played fast and loose with the NCAA, and on and on and on. (Same fans will say, "But the NCAA overshot us in 1995 and 2002" - you know, the same NCAA involved in most of the other stuff).
My other concern is because of the Duke lacrosse case. I sat and watched the press crucify a bunch of innocent kids, and I also watched Duke U set them down. Now - everyone here KNOWS......and I mean YOU KNOW deep down.....had it been white BASKETBALL players at Duke that the school would NOT have acted the same way. But who gives a rip about lacrosse? It's not a money maker sport. I watched all this "do the right thing and set them down" which was basically declaring them guilty up front. Oh, and then the accuser (Crystal Mangum) goes to prison for second degree murder several years later. (For those who don't know, she TRIED to kill one bf and DID kill a second one. But she was no doubt telling the truth about rape, right?)
I'm hesitant to call him Rapist Winston because there's not enough evidence there.
It would have been better for the NCAA is Winston had been accused of raping Manti Teo's uh girlfriend.