Let the Madness begin - How Bama makes it to the playoffs…..

[BamaBoySince89]

i think it's hilarious that all week will be spent talking about bama and osu with both of our regular seasons over.

at least lsu is happy about that.

The whole CFB world is happy about that

 

[crimsonaudio]

Ultimately, this Bama team ain't getting in the playoff. Not unless TCU and USC lose by multiple scores Saturday....and then its still no guarantee.

Right now the playoff will be
Georgia, Michigan, TCU and USC in that order.

USC still has no defense. TCU should get pushed around my Michigan. And Michigan won't have the athletes to keep up with UGA.

Agree with all of this except the bold. This Michigan team looks really good. Not saying they'll beat UGA, but I suspect they'll have a shot.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Agree with all of this except the bold. This Michigan team looks really good. Not saying they'll beat UGA, but I suspect they'll have a shot.

Not only that but this year’s Georgia is a step off the pace of last year’s, IMO.

 

[92tide]

Not only that but this year’s Georgia is a step off the pace of last year’s, IMO.

and with an easier schedule than last year, if you can imagine that

 

[Cruloc]

Agree with all of this except the bold. This Michigan team looks really good. Not saying they'll beat UGA, but I suspect they'll have a shot.

Anything to keep UGA from back to back.

 

[CrimsonTheory]

Agree with all of this except the bold. This Michigan team looks really good. Not saying they'll beat UGA, but I suspect they'll have a shot.

I don't see GA as being a step above everybody (unlike Joe Burrow's LSU or Mac Jones' Bama) which means Michigan has a legit chance to beat them.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Btw - not that this even matters - but the whining from Ob-Knoxville over "but we beat Alabama head-to-head" tickles me a bit.

What short memories the non-elephants have.

1985 - Vols finish 4th (9-1-2) and Gators 5th (9-1-1). Interesting as the Gators not only had one less blemish on their record, they BEAT THE VOLS HEAD-TO-HEAD (I'm told this is all that matters).

1989 - Vols finish 5th (11-1) over #9 Alabama (10-2)....who beat the Vols by 17 points (and it wasn't really THAT close)

1994 - Vols finish 22nd (8-4) and MSU Bulldogs 24th (8-4)...but MSU won the head-to-head by 3.

1999 - Vols finish 9th (9-3) over #12 Florida (9-4), who won the head-to-head; Florida's record was only "worse" because they won the division and had to play Alabama - BECAUSE UF BEAT UT!!!

2006 - the 9-4 Vols were two spots ahead of Penn St (9-4) in the coach's poll...despite losing the bowl game to...Penn St

2007 - the 10-4 Vols wind up ranked 12th over the 9-4 Gators (13th)...despite the Gators winning a nailbiter, 59-20.

2015 - the 9-4 Vols finish 3 spots ahead of the 10-4 Gators...despite losing to the Gators and HAVING FEWER WINS BECAUSE they lost to the Gators.

========================================================

Here's the thing: ANY ranking BELOW 4 at the end doesn't matter at all. Tennessee is not going to land some recruit because "in 2022, they finished 6th and Alabama finished 7th."

I could give you other examples of other teams. Two off the top of my head (I'm avoiding talking about 1978 here or I'd give you three):

1) 1985 - #3 Oklahoma loses to UNRANKED Miami. OU stays ahead of Miami all season long and AS A RESULT, they get a 1 vs 2 showdown in the Orange Bowl with Penn State and win the national title. Miami beat OU, 27-14, IN NORMAN, and felt they had to run the score up on Notre Dame to get the poll's attention, which they did. But the Canes were on the outside looking in even had they beaten the Vols (coincidentally)

2) 1993 - Notre Dame beats FSU, loses to Boston College on the last play a week later - and FSU winds up in the national title game despite a head-to-head loss to the Irish.


I'm not saying their complaint is not somewhat legit - you think Alabama fans would be sitting still here if the situation was reversed? But it's not like Tennessee hasn't benefited from the same thing in the past - that's the point.

 

[81usaf92]

Agree with all of this except the bold. This Michigan team looks really good. Not saying they'll beat UGA, but I suspect they'll have a shot.

honestly I don’t know. I believe Michigan is very unknown but you can’t ignore what they just did. Beating Ohio St at home last year was a “well the stars aligned just right” thing, but going into Columbus and beating the brakes off of them is something else entirely. They maybe better than what they were last year.

Georgia I think is nowhere near as good as they appear. Yes they play sound football but something is missing that could be exposed under the right circumstances. As crazy as it seems, they are probably happy that they are playing LSU and not Bama right now. I just don’t buy them as a lock for b2b

I still think after this week we are getting

1) UGA
2) Michigan
3) TCU
4) Ohio St

 

[bamamc1]

Regarding the CFP and the “hatred of all things Bama.” That playoff was established to make $. If we sneak in, everyone who hates Bama will tune in praying for a loss. Let that sink in. RTR

 

[selmaborntidefan]

honestly I don’t know. I believe Michigan is very unknown but you can’t ignore what they just did. Beating Ohio St at home last year was a “well the stars aligned just right” thing, but going into Columbus and beating the brakes off of them is something else entirely. They maybe better than what they were last year.

Georgia I think is nowhere near as good as they appear. Yes they play sound football but something is missing that could be exposed under the right circumstances. As crazy as it seems, they are probably happy that they are playing LSU and not Bama right now. I just don’t buy them as a lock for b2b

I still think after this week we are getting

1) UGA
2) Michigan
3) TCU
4) Ohio St

This is where I am.

Michigan is difficult to handicap - partly because Harbaugh has spent his whole career getting teams to the precipice only to have the kind of performance that makes you wonder "how were they even here in the first place?"

What stinks is...I guess I'll have to be for TCU to win it all in that circumstance. Or the Bucks.

And I don't "really" want 2 B1G teams mostly because Kevin Warren is the spawn of Satan, but it is what it is, too.

 

[B1GTide]

Hate to say it, but this is probably the best UM team that I have seen in 30+ years. They are much better than last years team. They do not lean on any particular player - they are solid and deep across their roster.

Could Georgia beat them? Sure. But it would take their best game of the year to do it.

Harbaugh has this team playing for one another, not for the uniform.

 

[81usaf92]

This is where I am.

Michigan is difficult to handicap - partly because Harbaugh has spent his whole career getting teams to the precipice only to have the kind of performance that makes you wonder "how were they even here in the first place?"

What stinks is...I guess I'll have to be for TCU to win it all in that circumstance. Or the Bucks.

And I don't "really" want 2 B1G teams mostly because Kevin Warren is the spawn of Satan, but it is what it is, too.

I think TCU is the fraud out of the bunch. USC is fraud #2.

 

[B1GTide]

I think TCU is the fraud out of the bunch. USC is fraud #2.

If either played an SEC schedule they would have been out of the CFP race long ago. There is a reason that Riley ran. There is a reason that Texas and OU joined.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

I think TCU is the fraud out of the bunch. USC is fraud #2.

I don't doubt TCU is the fraud - and remember, I'll have to live with it.

But there's one thing them winning it WOULD do - it would prove we DO NOT need an expanded playoff.

And the thing is......we don't.

If TCU goes unbeaten and then knocks off 2 of the top 3, they're legit champions.
I don't THINK they'll do it...but I didn't think SCAR would beat the Vols by 4 TDs, either.

 

[PA Tide Fan]

Many of the so called national "experts" think TCU is in win or lose, but the oddsmakers are not too impressed since they made them only a 2.5 point favorite over a 3 loss team they already beat. If the CFP committee is as skeptical about them as the oddsmakers then TCU will fall out of the top 4 with a loss. USC is only a 2.5 favorite over Utah but a case can be made there since Utah won the first one. What the odds are showing indicate that both teams losing is not a far-fetched notion. Vegas is betting however that OSU will be ranked #5 on Tuesday.

 

[crimsonaudio]

They maybe better than what they were last year.

I think they are, honestly. In the summer I would not have predicted it based on their heavy player losses and Harbaugh's attempt to jump to the NFL, but dangit, Michigan is playing really good football. Have all year, from the (few) games I've seen.

Georgia I think is nowhere near as good as they appear. Yes they play sound football but something is missing that could be exposed under the right circumstances. As crazy as it seems, they are probably happy that they are playing LSU and not Bama right now. I just don’t buy them as a lock for b2b

Agreed. I don't think this UGA D is nearly as good as last season, I think their numbers are good because they have good players, good coaching, and a play with discipline (sigh) but I don't think they can take over the game against a balanced offense.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Many of the so called national "experts" think TCU is in win or lose, but the oddsmakers are not too impressed since they made them only a 2.5 point favorite over a 3 loss team they already beat. If the CFP committee is as skeptical about them as the oddsmakers then TCU will fall out of the top 4 with a loss. USC is only a 2.5 favorite over Utah but a case can be made there since Utah won the first one. What the odds are showing indicate that both teams losing is not a far-fetched notion. Vegas is betting however that OSU will be ranked #5 on Tuesday.

TCU HAS to win. I don't care what any pundit says, you've got the two biggest draws in CFB right there behind them. If you're in the money game, one-loss Ohio St >>>> one-loss TCU every time, esp given Ohio State's loss is to one of the top two teams in the country.

TCU, however, isn't falling out with a win, either.

 

[81usaf92]

I think they are, honestly. In the summer I would not have predicted it based on their heavy player losses and Harbaugh's attempt to jump to the NFL, but dangit, Michigan is playing really good football. Have all year, from the (few) games I've seen.


Agreed. I don't think this UGA D is nearly as good as last season, I think their numbers are good because they have good players, good coaching, and a play with discipline (sigh) but I don't think they can take over the game against a balanced offense.

I think the committee will force Georgia to play the more difficult semifinal whether it be USC, Alabama, or Ohio St. I think Michigan is going to have the easiest path to the championship.

I think Georgia has only had one game of real consequence and yes they succeeded in it, but let’s be real… had Alabama not gone totally stupid vs Tennessee then would we even be talking about Tennessee as a good win for Georgia? Georgia has a lot of games in which their offense struggled a lot and what they would face vs both Michigan and Ohio St would be an upgrade on defense. This really feels like our 2016 for them.

 

[81usaf92]

TCU HAS to win. I don't care what any pundit says, you've got the two biggest draws in CFB right there behind them. If you're in the money game, one-loss Ohio St >>>> one-loss TCU every time, esp given Ohio State's loss is to one of the top two teams in the country.

TCU, however, isn't falling out with a win, either.

The only way TCU is in with a loss is if USC also loses. TCU needs the “us vs Bama” argument because they aren’t beating out a 1 loss Ohio st.

Honestly I love the enthusiasm of us potentially getting in but I think our chances of getting in were dead once Arkansas choked away the game vs LSU. What real hope died when KSU beat KU. Because it would have been a better argument for us if it was Texas ending TCU’s perfect season instead of KSU.

 

[Cruloc]

TCU played better Saturday, their most dominant win.....against a sub .500 Iowa State team. When they played KSU mid season, KSU's backup QB was playing his first game I believe. The kid has 4 or 5 games under his belt now. Plus it was @ TCU. KSU had them 28-10 mid 2nd QTR and couldn't hold on, lost 38-28