Looking To Saturday, How Do We Match Up With Missouri?

[Padreruf]

What was tough about VU's shovel pass was that they faked a handoff to the back and then had him reverse field and take the pitch. Usually when a back has a fake handoff the defense ignores him...at least in the middle of the scrimmage line. Really well run by them...I'm not sure I saw them run it in the 2nd half.

 

[Coach D]

Easy answer is idk. Defense exceeded expectations last two weeks. Last year the only consistency was the team was inconsistent. This year they are playing more consistent. Depth in d line is concerning with Mizzou run game. So match up on paper is slight lean to them. Although last game might be the best the d line has played in two years. Bama offense has been good and has a decent edge on paper over their defense. Bama offense seems to be on edge of great or 3 and out but I think mostly due to great competition last two weeks. Ball control has been better than great. On paper should win, last year probably makes everyone on edge for every game this year. Hopefully over the hump of big difference week in week out of performance.

 

[sanjosecrimson]

Missouri 29-20 South Carolina (Sep 20, 2025) Final Score - ESPN

Game summary of the Missouri Tigers vs. South Carolina Gamecocks NCAAF game, final score 29-20, from September 20, 2025 on ESPN.

www.espn.com

I am posting this link because the gamecocks are the only SEC team Missouri has faced thus far.
look at the penalties, 3rd down conversion, and time of possession. even with all that in Missouri's favor, they didn't dominate the game. Sellers outthrew Pribula who had a pedestrian game. the leading WR in the game was a gamecock. Hardy had a solid game, but that was expected since that is their bread and butter.
heading into the 4th quarter, SC was leading 20-18. Missouri edge out a late drive to seal the win.

 

[breyrolltide2003]

I think this is the same old average Missouri team that dominates the average competition. Pribula and Hardy are both very good players and could give our defense problems. From what I have seen, their front seven is their strong point on defense. I think this will be close early but Bama pulls away and wins by two touchdowns

 

[sanjosecrimson]

I think this is the same old average Missouri team that dominates the average competition. Pribula and Hardy are both very good players and could give our defense problems. From what I have seen, their front seven is their strong point on defense. I think this will be close early but Bama pulls away and wins by two touchdowns

Bama passing game should be the difference in the game. our running game has shown signs of life and could be a factor as well. the defense is playing hungry and aggressive which bolds well for more turnovers. Bama is plus 9 in turnovers and has given up only one.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

Just as long as Jason Autrey doesn't jog out there...

 

[Cruloc]

College Football Nerd's model has Missouri on top 30-20. Keep in mind that Missouri's toughest games were Kansas and at South Carolina.

Their other 3 were Central Arkansas, Louisiana, and UMass.

Their stats are skewed.

 

[sanjosecrimson]

College Football Nerd's model has Missouri on top 30-20. Keep in mind that Missouri's toughest games were Kansas and at South Carolina.

Their other 3 were Central Arkansas, Louisiana, and UMass.

Their stats are skewed.

so the nerds believe Bama will score about the same as the anemic gamecock offense and less than Kansas?? I don't see how they came up with that number esp. now the offense will become more balance with our emerging running game.

 

[bamajas]

so the nerds believe Bama will score about the same as the anemic gamecock offense and less than Kansas?? I don't see how they came up with that number esp. now the offense will become more balance with our emerging running game.

Their computer does. Not them personally

It also had us beating UGA 52-20. So obviously the scoring is still volatile early in the season, but it might show advantages beneath the surface that aren't obvious. They don't use preseason data in their model like most do, so it's wilder at first

 

[tideindc]

The way folks are analyzing the game, it seems a similar challenge as Vandy. We will face a strong running game and pretty good qb. To win we’ll need a few stops, and win turnover battle?

 

[Bamabuzzard]

Like I said about the Vandy game. If we're able to pass the ball, we'll be able to control the clock AND be a scoring threat on every series. If we can get the running game going, that will be just a huge bonus for us to the game.

 

[sanjosecrimson]

It also had us beating UGA 52-20.

man, that is some wild stuff. talk about discrepancy!!
the 20 points by Georgia was on target though.

 

[sanjosecrimson]

Like I said about the Vandy game. If we're able to pass the ball, we'll be able to control the clock AND be a scoring threat on every series. If we can get the running game going, that will be just a huge bonus for us to the game.

before Vandy, we were just happy if the backs and oline gave us 4 yards per carry. after the game, we now see what a healthy Jam and realigned OL can actually do. Vandy DL is no slouch, their defense like the rest of the team are full of veterans from the portal with tons of experienced and most of all well coached.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

My guess is they score early. They'll have some wrinkles we haven't seen on tape since they're coming off a bye.

Hopefully our 2nd half defense shows up again though and we pull away in the 2nd half. We should be able to move the ball on them

 

[Bama Lee]

so the nerds believe Bama will score about the same as the anemic gamecock offense and less than Kansas?? I don't see how they came up with that number esp. now the offense will become more balance with our emerging running game.

It is strongly weighted towards current seasons offensive and defensive numbers. It does not allow for SOS in any way. It also said that Vandy would beat Bama 34-32.

 

[CrimsonBloodn62]

It is strongly weighted towards current seasons offensive and defensive numbers. It does not allow for SOS in any way. It also said that Vandy would beat Bama 34-32.

Well, they don’t call them nerds for nothing. Lol

 

[KrAzY3]

Saw some talking heads saying that playing Vandy before Missouri was a good thing because Missouri runs an offense very similar to Vandy’s. Haven’t a clue how accurate that might be, but if it is, good.

The bad: It's @ Missouri, they are coming off a bye, and Missouri is a good rushing team (Alabama is 70th in rushing yards allowed).
The good: As you noted there are similarities, if nothing else in terms of both being teams that generally rushed well. Missouri is untested, Alabama certainly has been tested.

I did look at these two games as Alabama's chance to figure out the run. It should be a focal point since both teams run the ball and coming into the Missouri game it's their primary weapon. This is kind of like an old Alabama team on offense, they pass some, they run a lot. Alabama improved against the run in the second half against Vanderbilt and if they show progress in the area it could be a long day for Missouri because they run the ball almost 20 times more per game than they pass.

It is strongly weighted towards current seasons offensive and defensive numbers. It does not allow for SOS in any way. It also said that Vandy would beat Bama 34-32.

I have my doubts about the accuracy of both this and SP+ because they SoS certainly should be a major factor in my opinion.

According to Sagarin, Alabama is ranked third with an SoS of 4. Missouri is 19th with an SoS of 150. According to FPI Alabama is 4th with an SOR of 10th. Missouri is 18th with an SOR of 14th.
SP+ is more generous to Missouri, ranking Alabama 6th and Missouri 8th.

The composite computer rankings have Alabama third and Missouri 18th. Missouri can still win, with their biggest advantage probably being Alabama coming in kind of battle weary, but they haven't really proven anything on the field yet.

 

[sanjosecrimson]

Regarding home field advantage for Missouri, I think that's overblown. They have the least intimidating stadium outside of Vandy. Bama as we noted have played in two very hostile environments already. Bama face perhaps the most hostile environment I've seen at Fsu in recent memories. It was so loud and crazy, I knew it would affect our offense. In Athens, Kirby never lost a night at home and was 33 -0 in Sanford stadium. It didn't bother Bama one bit, heck I think the team thrive on it! The biggest advantage I believe for Missouri is that is an early game and Missouri had a bye to work on their game plan.

 

[Windsortide]

I am worried about the run game. That being Alabama controlling Missouri’s run game.

 

[Windsortide]

Alabama should thrive with their quick passing game. If we can get ahead it will help the defense tremendously.