Looking To Saturday, How Do We Match Up With Vandy?

[KrAzY3]

i am pretty sure last year's team spent the week after the georgia game patting themselves on the back instead of preparing properly

There's no question at all that this team should be more focused. That's one reason why it will be a good litmus test.

Alabama knows what to expect, it just happens to be a weakness.The only way I see Alabama losing this game is if the defense comes up short. I expect the players to be motivated, I think the offense will get things done, it reminds me a bit of the old Ole Miss or Texas A&M matchups.We know what they'll try to do, just a matter of if Alabama can stop them.

 

[HSV_1969]

This isn't a deep-dive into team stats, but I was trying to get an idea of how many times Vandy has punted to end a possession just looking at kicking stats.

Stats from: Vandy 2025 stats link and Alabama 2025 stats link.

Vandy has 33 extra point attempts and 5 FG attempts (for a total of 38 drives ending in scoring attempts) to 7 punts on the season. So for those possessions (would not count halftime or game ending possesions or any type of turnover [downs, int, fumble, etc.]), Vandy has punted on 15.6% of those possessions, and average 1.4 punts per game.

In that same stat analysis, Alabama has 20 extra point attempts and 6 FG attempts (for a total of 26 drives ending in scoring attempts) to 8 punts on the season. Alabama has punted on 23.5% of those possessions, and average 2.0 punts per game.

So, here's hoping Alabama can force a higher percentage of punts than has been typical for Vandy this year. If Alabama can force 2 or more punts, I'd feel pretty good about the chances of a win.

With what has played out with the Alabama Defense this year combined with how last year's game went with basically being unable to stop Vandy's offence, I expect a relatively high scoring game. In that type game makes mistakes are especially costly, and losing the turnover battle last year was certainly a significant factor in the Vandy victory last year. At least Alabama has been excellent this year in turnovers with 0, and Vandy has given up 4 total (3 int and 1 lost fumble). Given all that, I hope Alabama can outscore Vandy and win the turnover battle. So similar to a few others, I also see a close Alabama win in the 42-38 range.

i think bryant-denny is going to be on fire and we are going to beat the living crap out of them

I hope you are right 92tide, I'd like to see a dominant win over a quality opponent.

 

[Tideflyer]

Who is our athletic Middle LB who will be spying Pavia to keep him better contained?

I don’t think we have one of those, do we?

 

[Ole Man Dan]

They've got a lot of seniors, especially along the OL. They also run a lot.....a lot....and we tend to give up huge rushes because we have very poor gap integrity. That leads me to believe they will gash us similar to what UGA did.

If we continue to not give the ball away, I think we cover. If we turn it over its going to be tight.

What I'd like to see.....get up on them early, like we did UGA....but we've got to keep the pressure on, I don't think 24 is going to be enough.

I think we will need about 40, but we should win.
I think Vandy is a little overrated, because their wins were not against rated teams.

 

[bamacpa]

The QB play won't be nearly as one-sided as last year.

 

[Tideflyer]

I am concerned with our physicality especially from the Linebackers/corners in stopping the run. I would like to see more physical guys like Kirkpatrick, Lee, and even Mincey. Losing Russaw is gonna hurt this week especially against Pavia. I think Ty is gonna go off this week, the biggest concern for me is stopping Pavia's run game

I don’t think we can stop it. Seen no evidence leading me to think otherwise. I just hope we can SLOW it enough to get at least a couple of 3 and outs and changes of possession. We HAVE to win time of possession to win the game IMHO.

 

[KrAzY3]

Vandy has punted on 15.6% of those possessions, and average 1.4 punts per game.

I'm not looking up oppnent defenses right now, but here's a bit of context.

According to Sagarin, Alabama has played the #5 SoS, and Vanderbilt has played the #107 SoS. So, if you look at raw statistics Alabama should look a fair bit worse than they actually are and Vanderbilt should look quite a bit better than they actually are.

 

[Cruloc]

I don’t think we can stop it. Seen no evidence leading me to think otherwise. I just hope we can SLOW it enough to get at least a couple of 3 and outs and changes of possession. We HAVE to win time of possession to win the game IMHO.

I don't think we win the time of possession battle. They are going to slow the game down, limit our possessions. Now, get up on them and make them get out of their comfort zone and let's see what happens.

 

[deltatider]

Honestly I’m most interested in seeing how the oline plays this week more so than the defense. They will get their plays on offense and we will probably look out of sorts at times but overall I feel comfortable the defense will make enough plays to win the game.

My main concern is can the oline match its performance from last week to have consecutive strong performances? This is the first time in the regular season that group has been getting some atta boys and pats on the back. In other words, while I am impressed with how that group and the offense responded to adversity….I am now wondering how the line and the offense as a whole will handle success. We should handle the Vandy front 7 but my guess is they will be a bit under sized and do their best to cause confusion with the dline. I think that aspect of the game alone will go a long way telling us if this team is different from last year’s squad.

 

[TideMan09]

Im not worried about Vandy in all honesty, dont think for a moment, last years loss won't be enough motivation for us too stomp a mud hole in Vandy this coming Saturday

 

[Ledsteplin]

I think that the Georgia game was a test for DeBoer, but the Vanderbilt game is a test for Wommack. Alabama gave up 40 points to them last year, and that was actually with the 9th ranked scoring defense.

The weakness is against the run and Vanderbilt will probe that. This year Alabama is 19th in scoring defense and 75th in rushing defense. The question is can Wommack show improvement from last year?

The coaches didn't have much film on Pavia early last year. I think Vandy caught Bama by surprise. That shouldn't happen this year.

 

[Tide&True]

Pavia is the one guy we need to beat. Yes, they have other decent players but Pavia needs to feel the heat. If I’m a Bama player I think I would have this game circled because of last year.

 

[dabamafan]

I live near Nashville and like to see Vandy do well when not playing Alabama. Their coach has stated on multiple occasions the belief they can win any game on the schedule IF they play their game. Ball control, few penalties, smart defense , minimal turnovers. Play from the lead. Standard game plan ,but they can implement it. 20 plus seniors. A confident bunch. They are better than last year.
All that being said, this is a game Alabama should win, it most likely won't be easy . I'd prefer they not still be hanging around at the end for peace of minds sake.

 

[KrAzY3]

Im not worried about Vandy in all honesty, dont think for a moment, last years loss won't be enough for us too stomp a mud hole in Vandy this coming Saturday

In theory I think Missouri is the more dangerous opponent, and they actually are more like the Vanderbilt situation last year. Missouri has a bye and it's on the road. They're also the third best rushing offense in college football. So that is arguably the more dangerous game.

Having said that... the Vanderbilt game is more important. It's a revenge game, it's the next game, and it gives Alabama a chance to tighten things up against the run. If Alabama can't stop the run this game they're really in trouble the following game.

Interesting comparison though, Vanderbilt averages 6.5 rushing but their offense is pretty balanced. Missouri "only" averages 5.9 but that's on 49 attempts per game. They are absolutely going to try to run the ball down Alabama's throats.

 

[BamaInBham]

The QB play won't be nearly as one-sided as last year.

Milroe outgained Pavia by a little. 18-24 310, 14 yards rushing 2 TOs, 1 not his fault, 1 shared.

 

[dabamafan]

Milroe outgained Pavia by a little. 18-24 310, 14 yards rushing 2 TOs, 1 not his fault, 1 shared.

Pick 6 and if I'm not mistaken a fumble...

 

[bamadwain]

Them running the way they can worries me, I would like for Womack to go to a heavy front (4 lineman), like I said I do worry about the run down, but the pionts per game we give up is all that matters

 

[CoolBreeze]

If I am vandy I am printing this thread and saving in my hope chest. I think we smoke em.

 

[dabamafan]

I hope you are correct. But I can promise you it ain't the same Ole Vandy.

 

[Windsortide]

Alabama’s defense needs to win on first and second downs. Setting up third and long to increase the probability of the D getting off the field.