News Article: LSU preview: Tigers in unaccustomed spoiler role

[JessN]

LSU preview: Tigers in unaccustomed spoiler role
By Jess Nicholas
TideFans.com Editor-in-Chief
Nov. 3, 2008

Prior to Nick Saban’s arrival at LSU at the turn of the century, many Alabama fans looked at LSU the way many people view a traveling circus: The sideshows were often more entertaining than the main event.

How else to explain how LSU would often psych itself out of nearly every Alabama game in Baton Rouge dating back to the 1960s? Or how LSU would so often be on the cusp of greatness only to have it end like it did for one particular Curley Hallman-coached team against Auburn?

Saban changed those attitudes. Now, LSU is hoping they aren’t changing back.

For the full story, click here.

 

[chris]

very good breakdown! hard to argue with any of it,pretty much a tossup.win or lose we're light years ahead of where most of us thought we'd be.ain't this FUN!?

 

[CrimsonBleedRed]

Great article as always, Jess.

There are two stats I just can't stop thinking about:

22-7-5
and
21-23-3

Those are the records of Alabama in Baton Rouge, and LSU's record since 1960 during day games at home. To me that's a receipe for great success for Alabama.

Don't get me wrong this LSU team is not like those LSU teams from 69 to 1999, but something tells me LSU is going to shoot themselves in the foot in this game. It won't be a blowout, but I do think there will be a comfortable win, something like 31-20, 34-20, or perhaps 41-20.

 

[CrimsonEyeshade]

What sets this game apart is that the strength of our offense faces the strength of their defense. Not sure we can expect to knock them back five yards like we did against Georgia and Tennessee.

Unless JPW has the game of his career, this one just seems predisposed to be being very close.

John Parker must play well for us to win. We have to hold onto the ball, and some receivers beside Julio must be able to get open.

 

[Crimson Cat]

Good preview, Jess, as usual.
I'm probably more optimistic about this game than I should be I guess. I see our running backs/qb/Oline as well as our Dline as superior to Lsu's, in addition to the other categories you mentioned.
From what I've read from the Lsu fans perspective, most are not confident or optimistic in the way Lsu is playing at all, and not just in the Uga and UF games. Apparently they didn't play well against Tulane either. Also, MissSt scored 24 points on their D. Mississippi State!

If Bama plays the way they have all year in big games (Clemson, Uga, UT) controls the line of scrimmage, and doesn't make mistakes, Bama should win by a somewhat comfortable score, although I don't expect a blow-out by any means. I expect it to be somewhat like the UT game in some ways, a hard physical game, with Bama just chipping away. Bama has shown they can physically dominate their opponent on the road in hostile situations.

On the other hand, Lswho's defense is giving up big plays and big scores in big games, and their offense is just too inconsistent to be reliable. I do give Lswho a distinct edge in special teams play. Holliday is just dangerous. Lswho may have more talent, and could certainly win, but I just don't think they've gelled yet, and its 9 games into the season. Yes their emotions will be high for this game, but that can only take you so far, then you have to just play.

The biggest question mark I see for Bama going into this game, is not letting the hype and drama of the game itself (CNS return to Baton Rouge as a Tider) and the hype of being ranked #1 disrupt their focus on the game itself and the preparation for it.
But this is where I'd really have to give Bama another edge. Coach Saban has stressed all year to this team, about not letting outside circumstances disrupt their preparation or how they play the game, and he's been successful so far. They've listened and responded with a calm, workman-like approach to each game. I expect this to be no different. Bama plays their game and makes the other team adjust to them. Just my thoughts. RTR.:BigA:

 

[rolltidescott]

I just want to win. I must admit, though, that I think our stable of running backs (even if slighly 'dinged') outweighs Scott from LSU.

 

[CrimsonCT]

I must admit, though, that I think our stable of running backs (even if slighly 'dinged') outweighs Scott from LSU.

Yep, this was the only part that I questioned.

While I realize that Georgia had a different gameplan against LSU, it's worth noting that Moreno rushed for 163 yards on them, versus 34 against us. The Tiger D-line seems a bit less consistent than ours.

 

[trenda]

I think this may be a bigger game for Miles than it is for Alabama, and he may put so much pressure on himself that he coaches them right out of the game.

Not only has he made disparaging remarks about Bama for the past two seasons; but now he's faced with protecting his home turf against the former "owner." One of the things he's had to deal with since coming to LSU has been the insinuations that he's been winning with Saban's players. Well, four years in, it's obviously 'his' team now, and there are chinks in the armour. The gambles aren't paying off this season as they have the past couple.

This week is pivotal for Miles. A win salvages the season somewhat. A loss makes LSU 0-3 against the top teams on the schedule. Not to mention that, should Bama blow LSU out, he's looking at three blowout losses to the top three teams. Two of them at home. Not good in the "what have you done for me lately" state of college football.

Finally, LSU still mathematically has a shot at Atlanta; so there's urgency from that angle as well.

Bama's got the momentum and they've also got Saban. LSU has played very erratically all season and tends to give up big plays on defense. Bama, for the most part has been steady 'eddie' all season and rarely ever gives up big plays.

It won't be easy; but this game is the Tide's to take.

 

[GrayTide]

Good read Jess. I think it really is a toss up at kickoff. This game should be the ultimate chess match since I do not think either team can simply overpower the other, so IMO it will fall to JPW to win or lose. Turnovers, blown coverage, and untimely penalties will probably decide the outcome. I hope to be proven wrong, but something tells me this is our only loss this season. LSU 24 Bama 20

 

[Alanbama27]

LSU's defense has given up over 50 points twice this year. Hardly a defense that ranks anywhere NEAR Bama in my opinion and while emotion will play a factor in this game I just don't see LSU having anywhere near the ability to beat Alabama.

Also, let's not forget that Auburn held this LSU team to 3 points total!

I'm sorry but on paper (and I wish this game was played on paper) Bama beats them hands down! As I mentioned, the game is played in Death Valley but again I still see this as a good game for a very unemotional, businesslike Bama team over a team that will be out to beat Saban and not the guys on the other side of the LOS from them.

 

[TideWatcher]

Great preview. I also thought JPW was off this saturday. We had guys wide open on several plays that he just didn't see, and I can remember at least three that were easy reads. I saw Mcelroy warming up getting loose after one of these and CNS visibly upset. I realize backups get loose periodically and that might have been all it was, but there were definitely plays left on the field in the passing game( that were not difficult).

Having said that, JPW is who we win or lose with, and he tends to have highs and lows. I am hoping it is a high this week. I think it is the opposite of what you said about LSU's QB. If JPW plays well, we win period.

 

[awesomeman27]

I agree with all the parts of the posts (although i think i would give slight UA running backs), but I think Miles gets outcoached on the field. If he takes the risks he does against less disciplined teams against us, he will fall on the wrong end of the rewards.

 

[Crimson Speed]

This will be our toughest game thus far and I am nervous about the outcome. Expect Miles to pull two or three trick plays, maybe faking a punt on fourth down. With his history of this, I believe CNS will have us prepared for these surprises. I would also expect Miles to try some running back passes.

This game should come down to the success of JPW's passing. If he has a good game, it will open up opportunities for our ground game. But, no doubt, LSU will stack the line and force JPW to throw it. He will be OK if our OL can protect him.

I am comfortable with our ability to limit their run game. Their passing game should give our defense some opportunities to pick off a couple.

All teams have off days. For this one, it could come down to whether we are playing in sync.
RT

 

[red55]

LSU's defense has given up over 50 points twice this year. Hardly a defense that ranks anywhere NEAR Bama in my opinion and while emotion will play a factor in this game I just don't see LSU having anywhere near the ability to beat Alabama.

Well, there is that possibility.

Also, let's not forget that Auburn held this LSU team to 3 points total!

Uhhh . . . it was LSU 26, Auburn 21.

 

[Nolan]

This is the one game I can't wrap my head around. No idea how it'll play out and which LSU team will show up. And as far as our team I only hope that they stay focused, take that field, and simply execute.

Bama wins if we limit turnovers (none, preferably) and/or score a defensive touchdown or can get a big kickoff/punt return. We need that extra something besides running the ball, because LSU has a defensive line that could likely withstand our rushing attack reasonably well.

With some offensive balance (example: UGA game) and consistently good field position we can control this game and win rather impressively.

Believe me, though, nothing would make me happier than seeing us out-physical the Bengal Tigers, rush for 200-250 yards, and truly prove our running game elite... Just don't see that happening.

The opportunity, the challenge, the gauntlet - is yours - John Parker Wilson... Come out and shine (like you have before) and dreams will be realized.

Finally, I think the rest of the country again sees how good our defense is becoming. This is one of those games we look back at and think 21-24 points wins it. The defense does the job - can #14 and company do likewise?

My hopeful, crimson-colored, amateur opinion:

Alabama 23 Louisiana State 19

RTR

 

[BamaMan12]

I had the same feeling when we played Georgia. I thought Oh,man! I do not like our chances against Georgia. The way we played against Georgia in the First half was surreal 31-0. Now LSU can score. I doubt on the ground against Alabama. LSU more likely will score in the air but Jarrett Lee has lots of INT's. like 10. We will challnege his passing. I expect INT I assume 3. Nick Saban knows LSU at home. He knows what to do & what to expect. We be playing at there HOME so it will be a mental game. Now if Alabama can run the ball on LSU & keep them off balance we can win this game just as we did in Georgia. I have no doubt we got talent on this team. I predict Alabama 34-LSU 24

This is the one game I can't wrap my head around. No idea how it'll play out and which LSU team will show up. And as far as our team I only hope that they stay focused, take that field, and simply execute.

Bama wins if we limit turnovers (none, preferably) and/or score a defensive touchdown or can get a big kickoff/punt return. We need that extra something besides running the ball, because LSU has a defensive line that could likely withstand our rushing attack reasonably well.

With some offensive balance (example: UGA game) and consistently good field position we can control this game and win rather impressively.

Believe me, though, nothing would make me happier than seeing us out-physical the Bengal Tigers, rush for 200-250 yards, and truly prove our running game elite... Just don't see that happening.

The opportunity, the challenge, the gauntlet - is yours - John Parker Wilson... Come out and shine (like you have before) and dreams will be realized.

Finally, I think the rest of the country again sees how good our defense is becoming. This is one of those games we look back at and think 21-24 points wins it. The defense does the job - can #14 and company do likewise?

My hopeful, crimson-colored, amateur opinion:

Alabama 23 Louisiana State 19

RTR

 

[bamachile]

On paper, this is no contest.

That's the problem with paper.

I'm looking for a tough one, and I'm a wee bit nervous. Hopefully, my nervousness is unwarranted.

 

[92tide]

well, until proven otherwise, i am going to stand solidly behind my prediction that we put the "november curse" to bed once and for all by not allowing a single point to be scored on us this month :biggrin:

 

[LSU63]

excellent write up about the players and game. Great breakdown. I agree and think that this game, moreso than any other, will be decided by the line play of both teams and whether LSU can ever get consistent play.

As for the stuff about LSU wetting the bed and all, well I don't agree, but to each his own.

Definitly an excellent breakdown.

 

[TheCrimsonLiver]

I think its off base a little. I think the Bama D will make LSU one dimensional in the beginning, daring the young QB to throw by stopping the run. I think we have the best man to man coverage in the league when we hurry the QB. CNS's D will give this Lee kid headaches trying to figure out what is coming at him. When we stop the running game is when these mistakes start happening for LSU. Right it down! Plus i dont agree that this is a bigger game for LSU than it is Bama. These kids have bought into the system and believe. They have played one game at a time and they still remember the loss last year that shoulda been. I dont think this one is even close by halftime.