Michigan’s Path to Victory

[landonew]

I feel like Bama should win this game comfortably. That being said, with a month leading up to the game, it's very easy to succumb to confirmation bias. Everyone wants their team to "smash" the opponent, and is looking for reasons why this will happen. In the interest of remaining objective, I thought it would be interesting to discuss potential pathways for a Michigan Victory. My Thoughts are as follows:

1. Giving McCarthy Time – it’s imperative that we pressure McCarthy. He’s an NFL-caliber passer; their playmakers (particularly their TEs) will get open if given sufficient time. I like our edge rushers. Michigan rightfully notes that they’ve had success blocking some very good edge rushers against Penn State and OSU. They also note that JJ has enough mobility to extend plays.
2. Explosive Plays – per above, if JJ has time, Michigan’s offense can be as explosive as anyone. I’ve watched a lot of tape; the more I see, the more I feel Michigan’s lack of explosivity during the season has more to do with conservative play calling, than personnel. I’d also mention that our defense isn’t immune to blown coverage assignments.
3. Falling Behind by 2+ Possessions – this isn’t a death nail. Our offense is clearly explosive enough to come back from a two-possession deficit (we did against Tenn). Even so, falling behind by 2+ possessions changes the texture of the game in Michigan’s favor. Particularly with respect to the next topic.
4. Turnovers – while CTR has done an excellent job mitigating turnovers, the fact remains that JM’s tendencies (e.g., misreads, errant throws) tend to lead to turnovers. My concerns is not early turnovers. My concerns is, per point 3, that JM puts the ball in jeopardy down the stretch and we don’t have enough time to overcome it - ala Georgia at the end of the SECCG.

I think Michigan’s path to victory is narrow, but I think it’s realistic. What makes this path narrower? Few thoughts:

• The Obvious – JM, Edge Pressure, and personnel advantages. I’m not going to harp on these things; they’re well established.
• Inability to Rush Effectively – Michigan cannot run the ball without first establishing a presence in the passing game. Happy to discuss if folks disagree.
• Coaching – CNS is 6-1 in the CFP semifinals for a very good reason.

 

[Ledsteplin]

I feel like Bama should win this game comfortably. That being said, with a month leading up to the game, it's very easy to succumb to confirmation bias. Everyone wants their team to "smash" the opponent, and is looking for reasons why this will happen. In the interest of remaining objective, I thought it would be interesting to discuss potential pathways for a Michigan Victory. My Thoughts are as follows:

1. Giving McCarthy Time – it’s imperative that we pressure McCarthy. He’s an NFL-caliber passer; their playmakers (particularly their TEs) will get open if given sufficient time. I like our edge rushers. Michigan rightfully notes that they’ve had success blocking some very good edge rushers against Penn State and OSU. They also note that JJ has enough mobility to extend plays.
2. Explosive Plays – per above, if JJ has time, Michigan’s offense can be as explosive as anyone. I’ve watched a lot of tape; the more I see, the more I feel Michigan’s lack of explosivity during the season has more to do with conservative play calling, than personnel. I’d also mention that our defense isn’t immune to blown coverage assignments.
3. Falling Behind by 2+ Possessions – this isn’t a death nail. Our offense is clearly explosive enough to come back from a two-possession deficit (we did against Tenn). Even so, falling behind by 2+ possessions changes the texture of the game in Michigan’s favor. Particularly with respect to the next topic.
4. Turnovers – while CTR has done an excellent job mitigating turnovers, the fact remains that JM’s tendencies (e.g., misreads, errant throws) tend to lead to turnovers. My concerns is not early turnovers. My concerns is, per point 3, that JM puts the ball in jeopardy down the stretch and we don’t have enough time to overcome it - ala Georgia at the end of the SECCG.

I think Michigan’s path to victory is narrow, but I think it’s realistic. What makes this path narrower? Few thoughts:

• The Obvious – JM, Edge Pressure, and personnel advantages. I’m not going to harp on these things; they’re well established.
• Inability to Rush Effectively – Michigan cannot run the ball without first establishing a presence in the passing game. Happy to discuss if folks disagree.
• Coaching – CNS is 6-1 in the CFP semifinals for a very good reason.

I like Bama's pathway to victory better.

 

[CoolBreeze]

Yea, I like our chances.

 

[TideEngineer08]

you misspelled “Alabama misses its flight to Pasadena”

 

[PA Tide Fan]

IMO Michigan's path to victory is if either Milroe or our OL regress back to early season performance. If we control the LOS like we did with Georgia and Milroe doesn't have any turnovers then we win.

 

[landonew]

IMO Michigan's path to victory is if either Milroe or our OL regress back to early season performance. If we control the LOS like we did with Georgia and Milroe doesn't have any turnovers then we win.

Thank you; this is the TL;DR version and I like it. I think Michigan needs a +2 turnover margin, and the only way I see that happening is if JM/CTR get into consecutive “passing possessions” - essentially Georgia at the end of SECCG. We should have had multiple picks in 4th quarter.

 

[22Musso22]

I believe this is Landonew's man cave:

 

[deltatider]

Win, lose, or draw; my guess is that we won't hear much from landonew after this game. What in the hell is confirmation bias???

 

[landonew]

I graduated from Alabama in 2008. Confirmation Bias --> Click Me

 

[CajunCrimson]

Can we stop creating new Michigan threads? How many do we actually need? Locking this one and a few others.