Let's start this from the perspective of Michigan's defense. We'll do all of these from Michigan's perspective, in fact - and we'll start with their rushing defense.
Michigan is averaging giving up only 2.91 yards per play on the ground, overall. Against Power-5 opponents, that number only jumps to an even 3.0 yards per rush. Both are excellent, nationally. Alabama's offense, meanwhile, is only averaging 4.33 and 3.78, respectively, which is merely average nationally.
However, the best rushing offenses Michigan has faced this season (YPR, vs Power-5 only) are:
#40 Purdue - 4.44 YRP
#46 Penn State - 4.13 YPR
#48 Wisconsin - 4.22 YPR
#51 Nebraska - 4.11 YPR
Still, on the surface, this appears to significantly favor Michigan if Alabama is forced to have to run the ball. However, let's take a look at the best rushing Defenses the Tide has faced this season (YPR, vs Power-5 only):
#13 Texas - 2.87 YPR
#16 Texas A&M - 3.19 YPR
#24 Tennessee - 3.58 YPR
#26 Kentucky - 3.63 YPR
#27 MTSU - 3.69 YPR
#41 Georgia - 3.95 YPR
So, while this is probably still a slight Michigan edge, it's clear that Bama's rushing offense has faced stiffer competition than has Michigan's rush defense, which could even the scales a bit.
Moving on to Michigan's passing defense, we'll look at three stats versus Power-5 competition: Yards Per Pass, 20+ Yard Passing Plays, and Passing Efficiency. In these stats, Michigan's defense has given up 5.9 YPP, 18 20+ yard passes, and a 101.19 efficiency rating. Alabama's offense, meanwhile, has managed 10.3 YPP, 44 20+ yard passes, and a 168.76 efficiency rating. Of course, let's also look at the respective opponents. The best offenses that Michigan's defense has faced in these stats (vs Power-5 only, ordered here by passing efficiency) are:
#12 Ohio State - 8.8 YPP, 37 20+, 156.93 rating
#31 Maryland - 7.7 YPP, 43 20+, 143.69
#43 Penn State - 6.5 YPP, 22 20+, 134.47
#57 Indiana - 6.6 YPP, 26 20+, 126.53 rating
#58 Northwestern - 6.6 YPP, 26 20+, 126.44 rating
#75 Purdue - 6.3 YPP, 27 20+, 119.18 rating
This makes it clear that Bama's passing offense is, statistically, the best the Michigan defense will have faced all season. However, let's also take a look at the best defenses against which the Tide compiled its stats:
#13 Georgia - 6.4 YPP, 20+, 116.46 rating
#27 Texas - 6.9 YPP, 20+, 126.69 rating
#49 Auburn - 7.7 YPP, 20+, 134.83 rating
#63 Ole Miss - 7.8 YPP, 20+, 141.47 rating
#68 Tennessee - 8.0 YPP, 20+, 144.75 rating
#69 Kentucky - 7.7 YPP, 20+, 145.22 rating
#71 Texas A&M - 8.0 YPP, 20+, 145.53 rating
The level of competition for these two units seems to be fairly comparable, with a slight edge to the defenses the Bama offense has faced. Regardless, this is very much a strength versus strength matchup. Both units will be the best the other has faced all season.
Switching sides of the field, let's look at Michigan's rushing offense - which has averaged 4.1 yards per rush against Power-5 opponents this season. Bama's defense, meanwhile, has averaged giving up 3.74 yards per rush against Power-5 opponents this season. At first glance, this looks to be a slight edge in Bama's favor - with Bama's ranking here being 30th nationally and Michigan's 52nd. However, let's look at the rushing defenses the Michigan offense has faced this season:
#3 Penn State - 2.13 YPR
#12 Iowa - 2.86 YPR
#15 Nebraska - 3.13 YPR
#20 Ohio State - 3.38 YPR
#22 Maryland - 3.4 YPR
#44 Purdue - 3.99 YPR
#51 Indiana - 4.1 YPR
This looks to be at least somewhat favorable for Michigan, as this places Bama's defense squarely in the middle of their competition to date. Of course, we should also look at the best rushing offenses the Bama defense has faced:
#2 LSU - 6.28 YPR
#10 Georgia - 5.16 YPR
#17 Auburn - 4.95 YPR
#18 Texas - 4.93 YPR
#21 Tennessee - 4.84 YPR
#24 Kentucky - 4.81 YPR
#29 Ole Miss - 4.67 YPR
If the competition comparison moves the needle here at all, it moves it slightly towards Bama. The safe bet is calling this category a wash.
Now, let's move on to Michigan's passing offense - which has averaged 8.7 Yards Per Pass, compiled 33 20+ yard pass plays, and earned a rating of 163.49 against Power-5 competition. Alabama's defense, meanwhile, has given up 7.0 YPP, 37 20+ pass plays, and a 127.01 efficiency rating. First, let's look at the best passing defenses (vs Power-5 only, ordered here by passing efficiency) Michigan's offense has faced this season:
#3 Ohio State - 4.7 YPP, 13 20+, 92.62 rating
#5 Iowa - 4.7 YPP, 13 20+, 99.06 rating
#17 Penn State - 6.7 YPP, 23 20+, 118.63 rating
#19 Nebraska - 6.3 YPP, 24 20+, 120.96 rating
#20 Maryland - 6.8 YPP, 29 20+, 121.45 rating
#36 Rutgers - 6.5 YPP, 23 20+, 128.32 rating
#37 Purdue - 7.8 YPP, 49 20+, 129.03 rating
#73 Minnesota - 7.8 YPP, 32 20+, 145.63 rating
This looks to somewhat significantly favor Michigan, since Bama's stats in this category place it at the lower end of Michigan's competition to date. Of course, we should also look at the best passing offenses the Bama defense faced, as well:
#2 LSU - 10.6 YPP, 20+, 185.54 rating
#6 Georgia - 9.2 YPP, 20+, 165.83 rating
#13 Texas - 8.8 YPP, 20+, 155.13 rating
#23 Ole Miss - 8.7 YPP, 20+, 145.93 rating
#35 Tennessee - 7.5 YPP, 20+, 140.25 rating
#44 Texas A&M - 7.5 YPP, 20+, 133.65 rating
#52 Arkansas - 6.6 YPP, 20+, 129.50 rating
This side of the category pretty much just holds serve, making this one a Michigan lean, as well.
Of course, the goal of rushing and passing plays is not just to move the ball down the field but, primarily, to put points on the board - so let's look at scoring averages. Against Power-5 competition, Michigan is averaging scoring 38.1 points per game while Alabama is averaging giving up 21.9 points per game. To date, here are the best scoring defenses (against P-5 competition) that Michigan has faced:
#5 Ohio State - 11.2 PPG
#6 Penn State - 13.0 PPG
#7 Iowa - 13.5 PPG
#15 Nebraska - 19.4 PPG
#30 Rutgers - 24.2 PPG
#34 Maryland - 25.3 PPG
#55 Minnesota - 29.3 PPG
#59 Purdue - 29.6 PPG
Meanwhile, here are the best scoring offenses the Tide's defense has faced:
#2 LSU - 40.8 PPG
#9 Texas - 36.5 PPG
#11 Georgia - 35.7 PPG
#28 Ole Miss - 30.3 PPG
#28 Texas A&M - 30.3 PPG
#43 Tennessee - 27.1 PPG
#49 Kentucky - 26.2 PPG
#56 Auburn - 23.7 PPG
So, yeah - another close competition comparison. This puts this category as a slight Michigan lean, as their overall performance has been a bit better than Bama's here.
Now, let's look at the flip side of this category, where Michigan is averaging giving up - against Power-5 competition - 10.7 points per game while Bama has been averaging scoring 31.7 points per game. Here are the best scoring offenses the Michigan defense has faced:
#22 Penn State - 23.0 PPG
#26 Ohio State - 31.0 PPG
#41 Maryland - 27.9 PPG
#58 Purdue - 22.9 PPG
#80 Indiana - 19.6 PPG
#86 Rutgers - 18.3 PPG
#87 Minnesota - 18.2 PPG
And here are the best scoring defenses the Tide's offense has faced:
#12 Georgia - 18.5 PPG
#13 Texas - 18.9 PPG
#24 Auburn - 22.8 PPG
#36 Texas A&M - 25.9 PPG
#38 Tennessee - 26.0 PPG
#41 Ole Miss - 26.4 PPG
#55 Kentucky - 29.3 PPG
#55 Mississippi State - 29.3 PPG
This competition comparison leans heavily in Bama's favor, possibly evening up if not tilting the entire scoring category to Bama's favor.
Of course, statistical comparisons such as this are only as good as the levels of competition are similar, which is why I restricted it to Power-5 competition only. This particular game is a bit of an anomaly, as the cross-unit competition comparisons aren't usually this close. But, in this game, Michigan has faced better overall defenses than has Bama while Bama has faced better overall offenses than has Michigan. Meanwhile, this is the best offense Michigan will have faced and, conversely, the best defense Alabama will have faced. In statistical comparisons as close as this, the differences in a ballgame usually come down to five things, in this order:
1. Turnovers
2. Overall Team Speed
3. Offensive-Defensive Schemes
4. Special Teams
5. In-Game Coaching Adjustments
While Michigan is among the country's best in turnover margin, Alabama isn't far behind. Turnovers are also random and often have little to do with the level of competition (see Michigan turning it over four times versus Bowling Green) and, as such, are impossible to predict. I would tend to believe that Alabama would have the edge in overall team speed but this is another thing that is a bit hard to gauge until you get both teams on the field. Special Teams seems to be a bit of a wash or just a slight Bama lean. Which means that I believe this game will primarily come down to the Offensive & Defensive schemes these two teams run, their respective gameplans, and the in-game coaching adjustments.
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TL;DR - Final Thoughts
- Bama's 3-4 Over/Under (or is it 3-1-3-1-3 or 4-2-5?) is tailor-made to play Michigan's offense.
- Michigan's defense hasn't faced an offense as good as Bama's, as dynamic as Bama's, or a quarterback at all resembling what Jalen Milroe brings to the table.
- Michigan's offense will not be the best offense that Alabama's defense has faced this season, nor will it present anything the defense hasn't already seen.
- This Alabama has shown a penchant for making effective, in-game adjustments this season. I don't have a feel for Michigan here but I'd wager this is a push, at worst, if not a strong Bama advantage.
- No head coach has a better history of preparing teams for the post-season than Nick Saban.
It should be a good game but I'll take Bama in this one...
Michigan is averaging giving up only 2.91 yards per play on the ground, overall. Against Power-5 opponents, that number only jumps to an even 3.0 yards per rush. Both are excellent, nationally. Alabama's offense, meanwhile, is only averaging 4.33 and 3.78, respectively, which is merely average nationally.
However, the best rushing offenses Michigan has faced this season (YPR, vs Power-5 only) are:
#40 Purdue - 4.44 YRP
#46 Penn State - 4.13 YPR
#48 Wisconsin - 4.22 YPR
#51 Nebraska - 4.11 YPR
Still, on the surface, this appears to significantly favor Michigan if Alabama is forced to have to run the ball. However, let's take a look at the best rushing Defenses the Tide has faced this season (YPR, vs Power-5 only):
#13 Texas - 2.87 YPR
#16 Texas A&M - 3.19 YPR
#24 Tennessee - 3.58 YPR
#26 Kentucky - 3.63 YPR
#27 MTSU - 3.69 YPR
#41 Georgia - 3.95 YPR
So, while this is probably still a slight Michigan edge, it's clear that Bama's rushing offense has faced stiffer competition than has Michigan's rush defense, which could even the scales a bit.
Moving on to Michigan's passing defense, we'll look at three stats versus Power-5 competition: Yards Per Pass, 20+ Yard Passing Plays, and Passing Efficiency. In these stats, Michigan's defense has given up 5.9 YPP, 18 20+ yard passes, and a 101.19 efficiency rating. Alabama's offense, meanwhile, has managed 10.3 YPP, 44 20+ yard passes, and a 168.76 efficiency rating. Of course, let's also look at the respective opponents. The best offenses that Michigan's defense has faced in these stats (vs Power-5 only, ordered here by passing efficiency) are:
#12 Ohio State - 8.8 YPP, 37 20+, 156.93 rating
#31 Maryland - 7.7 YPP, 43 20+, 143.69
#43 Penn State - 6.5 YPP, 22 20+, 134.47
#57 Indiana - 6.6 YPP, 26 20+, 126.53 rating
#58 Northwestern - 6.6 YPP, 26 20+, 126.44 rating
#75 Purdue - 6.3 YPP, 27 20+, 119.18 rating
This makes it clear that Bama's passing offense is, statistically, the best the Michigan defense will have faced all season. However, let's also take a look at the best defenses against which the Tide compiled its stats:
#13 Georgia - 6.4 YPP, 20+, 116.46 rating
#27 Texas - 6.9 YPP, 20+, 126.69 rating
#49 Auburn - 7.7 YPP, 20+, 134.83 rating
#63 Ole Miss - 7.8 YPP, 20+, 141.47 rating
#68 Tennessee - 8.0 YPP, 20+, 144.75 rating
#69 Kentucky - 7.7 YPP, 20+, 145.22 rating
#71 Texas A&M - 8.0 YPP, 20+, 145.53 rating
The level of competition for these two units seems to be fairly comparable, with a slight edge to the defenses the Bama offense has faced. Regardless, this is very much a strength versus strength matchup. Both units will be the best the other has faced all season.
Switching sides of the field, let's look at Michigan's rushing offense - which has averaged 4.1 yards per rush against Power-5 opponents this season. Bama's defense, meanwhile, has averaged giving up 3.74 yards per rush against Power-5 opponents this season. At first glance, this looks to be a slight edge in Bama's favor - with Bama's ranking here being 30th nationally and Michigan's 52nd. However, let's look at the rushing defenses the Michigan offense has faced this season:
#3 Penn State - 2.13 YPR
#12 Iowa - 2.86 YPR
#15 Nebraska - 3.13 YPR
#20 Ohio State - 3.38 YPR
#22 Maryland - 3.4 YPR
#44 Purdue - 3.99 YPR
#51 Indiana - 4.1 YPR
This looks to be at least somewhat favorable for Michigan, as this places Bama's defense squarely in the middle of their competition to date. Of course, we should also look at the best rushing offenses the Bama defense has faced:
#2 LSU - 6.28 YPR
#10 Georgia - 5.16 YPR
#17 Auburn - 4.95 YPR
#18 Texas - 4.93 YPR
#21 Tennessee - 4.84 YPR
#24 Kentucky - 4.81 YPR
#29 Ole Miss - 4.67 YPR
If the competition comparison moves the needle here at all, it moves it slightly towards Bama. The safe bet is calling this category a wash.
Now, let's move on to Michigan's passing offense - which has averaged 8.7 Yards Per Pass, compiled 33 20+ yard pass plays, and earned a rating of 163.49 against Power-5 competition. Alabama's defense, meanwhile, has given up 7.0 YPP, 37 20+ pass plays, and a 127.01 efficiency rating. First, let's look at the best passing defenses (vs Power-5 only, ordered here by passing efficiency) Michigan's offense has faced this season:
#3 Ohio State - 4.7 YPP, 13 20+, 92.62 rating
#5 Iowa - 4.7 YPP, 13 20+, 99.06 rating
#17 Penn State - 6.7 YPP, 23 20+, 118.63 rating
#19 Nebraska - 6.3 YPP, 24 20+, 120.96 rating
#20 Maryland - 6.8 YPP, 29 20+, 121.45 rating
#36 Rutgers - 6.5 YPP, 23 20+, 128.32 rating
#37 Purdue - 7.8 YPP, 49 20+, 129.03 rating
#73 Minnesota - 7.8 YPP, 32 20+, 145.63 rating
This looks to somewhat significantly favor Michigan, since Bama's stats in this category place it at the lower end of Michigan's competition to date. Of course, we should also look at the best passing offenses the Bama defense faced, as well:
#2 LSU - 10.6 YPP, 20+, 185.54 rating
#6 Georgia - 9.2 YPP, 20+, 165.83 rating
#13 Texas - 8.8 YPP, 20+, 155.13 rating
#23 Ole Miss - 8.7 YPP, 20+, 145.93 rating
#35 Tennessee - 7.5 YPP, 20+, 140.25 rating
#44 Texas A&M - 7.5 YPP, 20+, 133.65 rating
#52 Arkansas - 6.6 YPP, 20+, 129.50 rating
This side of the category pretty much just holds serve, making this one a Michigan lean, as well.
Of course, the goal of rushing and passing plays is not just to move the ball down the field but, primarily, to put points on the board - so let's look at scoring averages. Against Power-5 competition, Michigan is averaging scoring 38.1 points per game while Alabama is averaging giving up 21.9 points per game. To date, here are the best scoring defenses (against P-5 competition) that Michigan has faced:
#5 Ohio State - 11.2 PPG
#6 Penn State - 13.0 PPG
#7 Iowa - 13.5 PPG
#15 Nebraska - 19.4 PPG
#30 Rutgers - 24.2 PPG
#34 Maryland - 25.3 PPG
#55 Minnesota - 29.3 PPG
#59 Purdue - 29.6 PPG
Meanwhile, here are the best scoring offenses the Tide's defense has faced:
#2 LSU - 40.8 PPG
#9 Texas - 36.5 PPG
#11 Georgia - 35.7 PPG
#28 Ole Miss - 30.3 PPG
#28 Texas A&M - 30.3 PPG
#43 Tennessee - 27.1 PPG
#49 Kentucky - 26.2 PPG
#56 Auburn - 23.7 PPG
So, yeah - another close competition comparison. This puts this category as a slight Michigan lean, as their overall performance has been a bit better than Bama's here.
Now, let's look at the flip side of this category, where Michigan is averaging giving up - against Power-5 competition - 10.7 points per game while Bama has been averaging scoring 31.7 points per game. Here are the best scoring offenses the Michigan defense has faced:
#22 Penn State - 23.0 PPG
#26 Ohio State - 31.0 PPG
#41 Maryland - 27.9 PPG
#58 Purdue - 22.9 PPG
#80 Indiana - 19.6 PPG
#86 Rutgers - 18.3 PPG
#87 Minnesota - 18.2 PPG
And here are the best scoring defenses the Tide's offense has faced:
#12 Georgia - 18.5 PPG
#13 Texas - 18.9 PPG
#24 Auburn - 22.8 PPG
#36 Texas A&M - 25.9 PPG
#38 Tennessee - 26.0 PPG
#41 Ole Miss - 26.4 PPG
#55 Kentucky - 29.3 PPG
#55 Mississippi State - 29.3 PPG
This competition comparison leans heavily in Bama's favor, possibly evening up if not tilting the entire scoring category to Bama's favor.
Of course, statistical comparisons such as this are only as good as the levels of competition are similar, which is why I restricted it to Power-5 competition only. This particular game is a bit of an anomaly, as the cross-unit competition comparisons aren't usually this close. But, in this game, Michigan has faced better overall defenses than has Bama while Bama has faced better overall offenses than has Michigan. Meanwhile, this is the best offense Michigan will have faced and, conversely, the best defense Alabama will have faced. In statistical comparisons as close as this, the differences in a ballgame usually come down to five things, in this order:
1. Turnovers
2. Overall Team Speed
3. Offensive-Defensive Schemes
4. Special Teams
5. In-Game Coaching Adjustments
While Michigan is among the country's best in turnover margin, Alabama isn't far behind. Turnovers are also random and often have little to do with the level of competition (see Michigan turning it over four times versus Bowling Green) and, as such, are impossible to predict. I would tend to believe that Alabama would have the edge in overall team speed but this is another thing that is a bit hard to gauge until you get both teams on the field. Special Teams seems to be a bit of a wash or just a slight Bama lean. Which means that I believe this game will primarily come down to the Offensive & Defensive schemes these two teams run, their respective gameplans, and the in-game coaching adjustments.
-------------------------------
TL;DR - Final Thoughts
- Bama's 3-4 Over/Under (or is it 3-1-3-1-3 or 4-2-5?) is tailor-made to play Michigan's offense.
- Michigan's defense hasn't faced an offense as good as Bama's, as dynamic as Bama's, or a quarterback at all resembling what Jalen Milroe brings to the table.
- Michigan's offense will not be the best offense that Alabama's defense has faced this season, nor will it present anything the defense hasn't already seen.
- This Alabama has shown a penchant for making effective, in-game adjustments this season. I don't have a feel for Michigan here but I'd wager this is a push, at worst, if not a strong Bama advantage.
- No head coach has a better history of preparing teams for the post-season than Nick Saban.
It should be a good game but I'll take Bama in this one...