There are roughly 130 P5, G5, and major independent college football teams.
At 25 scholarships a year, that’s roughly 3,250 new scholarships every year.
Also each year, there are roughly 1,750 or so HS players rated 3 stars or better. All of them will have offers. Maybe they get an offer from their dream school; maybe not. But they will have an opportunity to have a free ride to college in exchange for playing football.
Which means there are roughly 1,500 D1 college scholarships available for players rated 2 stars or fewer.
Now, there are over 3,000 football players in the transfer portal. It’s a game of musical chairs, except instead of one chair too few, there are hundreds too few.
This hurts two constituencies. The first is the marginal HS prospect. Coming out of HS, the kid’s not ready to contribute at the D1 level yet. Maybe he’ll develop. Maybe he won’t. Nobody knows, not even him.
The other harmed constituency is the second-tier D1 coach who takes a chance, signs a project, and is successful developing the kid into a major contributor — whereupon the kid leaves for a top-tier program where he has a chance of winning something worth winning. Tyler Steen, anyone?
So the second-tier D1 coach has to weigh the odds of coming out better signing (1) the HS project, who might or might not develop — and even if he does develop, he might or might not stick around, or (2) the transfer who is 1 - 3 years older, more physically and psychologically developed, and much more of a known quantity. But he’s transferring for a reason, often not a positive one.
In an act of self-preservation, the coach leans heavily toward the lower-risk move. IOW, the transfer. Which leaves the marginal HS project on the outside looking in.
Unintended consequences of an innovation that is well-intended but not fully thought through.
While I feel for the HS kid left out in the cold, I can’t help but feel a sense of schadenfreude when sanctimonious pinheads, talking heads and ink-stained wretches yowl for a change, then get it, then unintended consequences swoop in and leave them looking like Wile E. Coyote when his cigar blows up.
Given that so many of the loudest advocates of easy transfers were in the print and broadcast media, is it any wonder that we don’t hear a peep out of them about the dark underbelly of what they screamed bloody murder for?