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New poll has President taking lead in election, BUT...

BamaFlum

BamaFlum

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Dec 11, 2002
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Has anyone noticed this new poll has sampled 11 percent more democrats than republicans? This is for the battleground states of Ohio, Penn, and Florida. I'm on my phone and can't link the article.
 
I think these "polls" are about as useful as a teets on a boar-hawg. The sample size normally isn't big enough to get useful information and as you've stated the sample size is manipulated to get a desired result.

Outside of the voting fraud and corruption that we know will go on, many people say one thing out in public then go vote totally different. And I believe that will be the case in November as well.
 
BamaFlum said:
Has anyone noticed this new poll has sampled 11 percent more democrats than republicans? This is for the battleground states of Ohio, Penn, and Florida. I'm on my phone and can't link the article.
Click to expand...

They are using the exit polling from 2008 and in some cases 2004 to determine the sampling, although the splits are not that high and they are padding the stats. An example is the Pennsylvania part of the NY Times/Quinnipiac (which I think you are referencing) where the 2012 poll sample is 39% D, 28% R, and 27% I (11 point split from D to R) and the 2008 exit they based their sample on was 44% D, 37% R, and 19% I (7 point split from D to R).
 
We did this back in college. I have a relatively useless BA in Political Science and once took a class called "Politics and the Media". One of the class long projects we did was polling fellow students, although with a few twists. One sub project in particular was to take an idea and develop a poll that would affirm that idea; then the next week you develop a poll that affirms the exact opposite. You alter your sample, change your questions, change or reword the answers you offer for the questions, adjust the scenarios you offer beforehand, and so on. Basically you can get whatever result you want if you try hard enough and have a smidge of creativity. I have been polled before although they did not use my results as I was not able to finish the poll. Why? I was being forced to accept one of the 4-5 answers they had for a given question and several times I did not agree with the answers they offered.
 
Bamabuzzard said:
I think these "polls" are about as useful as a teets on a boar-hawg. The sample size normally isn't big enough to get useful information and as you've stated the sample size is manipulated to get a desired result.

Outside of the voting fraud and corruption that we know will go on, many people say one thing out in public then go vote totally different. And I believe that will be the case in November as well.
Click to expand...
I believe that there is quite a bit of voter fraud. I once saw a picture of the little guy from the sixth sense movie with that look. The caption read " I see dead people_____ Voting " :). And they say that I am racist, because I feel that we should produce an ID in order to vote??? Dead people do not ususally produce a picture ID :).
 
Bamabuzzard said:
I think these "polls" are about as useful as a teets on a boar-hawg. The sample size normally isn't big enough to get useful information and as you've stated the sample size is manipulated to get a desired result.

Outside of the voting fraud and corruption that we know will go on, many people say one thing out in public then go vote totally different. And I believe that will be the case in November as well.
Click to expand...
I'm taking Research Methods this semester. One chapter discusses the sample size of research studies. It includes a chart of the polls leading up to the 2008 election...


[TABLE="class: grid, width: 500"]
[TR]
[TD]Poll[/TD]
[TD]Date Ended[/TD]
[TD]Obama (%)[/TD]
[TD]McCain (%)[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Fox[/TD]
[TD]Nov 2[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]NBC[/TD]
[TD]Nov 2[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marist College[/TD]
[TD]Nov 2[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Harris Interactive[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]56[/TD]
[TD]44[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]ARG[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Rasmussen[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]IBD/TIPP[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]DailKos.com/Research 2000[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]GWU[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]53[/TD]
[TD]47[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Marist College[/TD]
[TD]Nov 3[/TD]
[TD]55[/TD]
[TD]45[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]Actual vote[/TD]
[TD]Nov 4[/TD]
[TD]54[/TD]
[TD]46[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Looks pretty accurate to me.
 
bamapuppy said:
I believe that there is quite a bit of voter fraud. I once saw a picture of the little guy from the sixth sense movie with that look. The caption read " I see dead people_____ Voting " :). And they say that I am racist, because I feel that we should produce an ID in order to vote??? Dead people do not ususally produce a picture ID :).
Click to expand...

300px-All_Saints_Day_in_New_Orleans_--_Decorating_the_Tombs.jpg

NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA: ACORN GETTING
THE OUT VOTE AT SAINT LOUIS CEMETERY #2.​
 
I think it will be interesting to see what, if anything, happens to the polls in response to the debates. Should at least indicate whether this will in fact be a more issues-focused Presidential election like many think, as opposed to the person-focused Presidential elections of the past few cycles.

I'm skeptical as always.
 
Coincidentally this same group of people went to an Alabama game at Bryant Denny Stadium and asked “who is the best team”? Alabama was overwhelmingly #1.
 
Well just about all the polls are in agreement. If they do their polling independently then they all tend to validate the results. But the poll that really counts is the one on the 6th of November.
 
Hopefully all this "skewing" of the polls will inspire more people to vote for someone other than Barrack. It scares me to think the state of our country will be in 4-8 yrs from now if he gets back in.

He has done NOTHING to better our country in the long run.
 
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