Pick the score: Alabama vs. LSU

[stickman0011]

Bama - 42
LSWho- 13

 

[tide96]

Tua on the pine after two series in the 3rd. 48-13.

 

[12Namath12]

Alabama 52
LSU 12

 

[TiderJack]

Hope you are wrong and it's not that close. I want to enjoy the game and not be a nervous wreck.

We have been fortunate this year not to have one single nervous wreck game or part of a game this year. There may be moments in the first half but I don't expect one this week either.

 

[colbysullivan]

Here’s your key to the game:

We are better in pretty much all facets.

42-17 Bama

 

[DallasRTR]

I'm a bit more conservative than most others here - night game at Death Valley - not easy to overcome.
I believe we win it but it will be much closer than most expect it to be. I say
Bama 31
LSU 24

 

[GP for Bama]

35-20 Bama

Another tough fought game.

 

[B1GTide]

The statistical reality, and we already know this - LSU has played better defensive and offensive teams than Alabama has. They have played four top 50 offensive scoring teams and six top 50 defensive points allowed teams. Alabama has only faced three top 50 scoring teams and one top 50 scoring defense. I have no idea how that will play out in this game, but LSU has faced a far tougher schedule to this point. Call it a wash on the scoring offenses if you wish, but they have faced far tougher defenses - even when you pull Alabama's numbers out of the stats for those teams.

Still, Alabama has the statistical advantage. On average, LSU scores 8.2 ppg more than their opponents defenses typically allow. Their defense hold their opponents 16.9 points below their scoring average. Using Alabama's averages that would produce a final score of 37-24, Alabama. Even if you award them points for home field, Alabama still wins comfortably.

Using Alabama's numbers: Alabama scores 22.4 ppg more than your opponents' defenses allow while holding them 14.2 points below their average. That produces a final score of 37-16, Alabama.

Average the two and you get:
Alabama 37
LSU 20

But, because of the tougher games, LSU has played their starters for most of every game, so their stats are full game stats while Alabama's are not. That leads me to believe that Alabama will score more in this game than this analysis predicts while holding LSU to fewer points than it predicts. Either way, comfortable Alabama win.

 

[JustNeedMe81]

https://www.al.com/alabamafootball/...saban-news-conference.html#incart_river_index

Something tells me they have plans in place for LSU Defense....

 

[CrimsonNagus]

LSU's hype is built off of 2 "top ten" wins. This is still mentioned on ESPN by those "experts" but, they don't mention that both those "top ten" opponents are now unranked. The millage on these victories runs out this weekend.

Bama - 31
LSU - 7
Halftime

Bama - 41
LSU - 10
End of 3rd

Bama - 48
LSU - 17
Final

Bama clinches the SEC West, Tua locks down the Heisman!

 

[BamaMoon]

Slightly different twist: What's the minimum we score that they can better?

LSU only averages 30 points a game. Can they score that against Bama? It's not likely unless we help them. What has to happen for us to score less than 30?

1. Tua has a terrible game that includes 2 or more INTs.
2. We turn it over 3 or more times.
3. Tua gets hurt.
4. Our DBs meltdown and we give up 2 or more long TDS.
5. They turn it into a field position and kicking game.

I think Tua getting hurt is the only way they really can keep us from scoring under 30. They only score 19 against MSU with the help of 4 INTs from Fitzgerald.

Outside of a complete meltdown, I just don't see them being able to slow us down to score less than 30 and without major help I don't see how they score that much.

 

[rollinloaner]

28-10 Alabama.

While the Tide defense isn't its typical, smothering, self, LSU's offense is just as inept as usual. Tua and the gang will be tested by an all-world secondary but will produce enough big plays to put the game comfortably out of reach early in the 3rd.

 

[B1GTide]

Slightly different twist: What's the minimum we score that they can better?

LSU only averages 30 points a game. Can they score that against Bama? It's not likely unless we help them. What has to happen for us to score less than 30?

1. Tua has a terrible game that includes 2 or more INTs.
2. We turn it over 3 or more times.
3. Tua gets hurt.
4. Our DBs meltdown and we give up 2 or more long TDS.
5. They turn it into a field position and kicking game.

I think Tua getting hurt is the only way they really can keep us from scoring under 30. They only score 19 against MSU with the help of 4 INTs from Fitzgerald.

Outside of a complete meltdown, I just don't see them being able to slow us down to score less than 30 and without major help I don't see how they score that much.

The most that I see them scoring is 27 points, and that is if everything goes right for Alabama - in other words, that is if you are killing them and put in subs.

With your first team on the field you are allowing .1 points per possession this season. That translates to roughly 10 points. So, even if they score on defense, if your offense struggles and your first team stays on the field, they are not scoring more than 17 points.

 

[BamaMoon]

The most that I see them scoring is 27 points, and that is if everything goes right for Alabama - in other words, that is if you are killing them and put in subs.

With your first team on the field you are allowing .1 points per possession this season. That translates to roughly 10 points. So, even if they score on defense, if your offense struggles and your first team stays on the field, they are not scoring more than 17 points.

Roll Tide to that!

 

[Harmost]

I'm going to say 34-17, Bama. As a matter of x's and o's and Jimmies and Joes and all that, we should probably win by a lot more and this one shouldn't ever feel close. But, with all the emotion and atmosphere, it's hard to imagine the game going that way unless we come out on fire and generally manage to avoid bad luck plays.

I'll also echo a sentiment I've seen coming from others: I hope whoever handles punting for us has really, really (really!) worked on speeding up his delivery.

 

[Ole Man Dan]

35-17.

We win, but it won't be pretty.

 

[TUSCALOOSAHONOR]

Everyone is looking at it from the perspective that Alabama has played weaker competition. But you also have to look at it from the aspect that lsu hasn't played a team as good as Bama either.

 

[colbysullivan]

Everyone is looking at it from the perspective that Alabama has played weaker competition. But you also have to look at it from the aspect that lsu hasn't played a team as good as Bama either.

Yep, their secondary may be great but they haven’t seen anything like Tua...

 

[dadleyblane5]

Good guys 38

Corndogs -17

 

[JBama_in_PCOLA]

Yep, their secondary may be great but they haven’t seen anything like Tua...

That’s seemingly what’s hardly being talked about. It’s all about LSUs defense and Alabama hasn’t seen anything like that. I haven’t heard anything about LSU hasn’t seen anything like Bama’s offense.


I don’t think LSU ever in its existence has seen anything like this offense.