Pick the score: Auburn vs. Alabama

[CoachJeff]

Auburn 34
Alabama 28

I don't like our chances, but then again I've had a bad feeling about most of our games, so don't pay me any mind.

 

[92tide]

This is a really hard game to predict and I can't really get a feel for how it will go. For the first time in a while Auburn might actually have the better run D and we definitively have the more mobile/escape artist QB. I think the difference in the game will be if our OL can pass protect consistently and open up enough holes for Harris and co. I would really hope we don't move away from using Jacobs because his ability to make people miss could be huge. I think we win this one by around 10 with the possibility of Auburn getting a last second score that makes it a 3-7 point game. So, I'll go with 27-17 Tide rolls

we are the #2 rush defense in the nation. the barn is #16

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

we are the #2 rush defense in the nation. the barn is #16

Past few games with our LBs down we haven't looked as good. Thats why I said might.

 

[92tide]

Past few games with our LBs down we haven't looked as good. Thats why I said might.

miss state (17) is higher ranked than auburn (18) in rushing offense and we held them to 3.5 yds per carry (they average 5.22 ypc) and that was with our injuries and holcombe and moses having a tough time playing new positions. we held lsu to 3.6 ypc and they average 4.9 ypc.

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

miss state (17) is higher ranked than auburn (18) in rushing offense and we held them to 3.5 yds per carry (they average 5.22 ypc) and that was with our injuries and holcombe and moses having a tough time playing new positions. we held lsu to 3.6 ypc and they average 4.9 ypc.

True. But Auburn held Georgia to 1.4 ypc. And Mississipi States RB went 4.4 ypc vs us with his season avg being 4.6 and he has been held below that multiple times by lesser teams.

You're probably right. We probably still have a better run D than them but I don't think the difference is as big as I would have expected a few weeks ago. Not saying our Run D is bad by any means either.

 

[92tide]

True. But Auburn held Georgia to 1.4 ypc. And Mississipi States RB went 4.4 ypc vs us with his season avg being 4.6 and he has been held below that multiple times by lesser teams.

You're probably right. We probably still have a better run D than them but I don't think the difference is as big as I would have expected a few weeks ago. Not saying our Run D is bad by any means either.

i think miss state was an anomaly game for us defensive wise. we had the obvious issues with injuries, and everyone on d was playing sluggish and missing tackles they usually make (my guess was lsu hangover). i don't think we will see a repeat of that performance. georgia was pure hot garbage in the game with the barn after the first quarter. i think we will handle the barn offense just fine. and i think our offense is orders of magnitude better than theirs (we certainly have many more weapons available)

i think it will be a 35-9, maybe 13 type game.

 

[TampaTide813]

Alabama - 38
Auburn - 19

RTR!!!

 

[USCBAMA]

Bama 27
auburn 20

Don't see it as a blowout, but do think Bama will be better prepared at LB with a few weeks to work out kinks from injuries.

 

[rgw]

Auburn 31
Alabama 27

I think we will play better against the run than the MSU and LSU performances would indicate but in doing so we make ourselves vulnerable to some deep passes that are the difference. In a critical spot we may lose contain or fill the wrong gap on a run. Offense fails to keep pace with a handful of critical defensive errors and we come up short due to not being able to get Auburn off the field late.

I'd like to be wrong and the Auburn chatter and Alabama gloom may inspire our guys but inspiration doesn't really overcome pure defensive knowledge gaps of playing depth that hasn't had many real reps until the last few weeks at a critical position.

 

[92tide]

Auburn 31
Alabama 27

I think we will play better against the run than the MSU and LSU performances would indicate but in doing so we make ourselves vulnerable to some deep passes that are the difference. In a critical spot we may lose contain or fill the wrong gap on a run. Offense fails to keep pace with a handful of critical defensive errors and we come up short due to not being able to get Auburn off the field late.

I'd like to be wrong and the Auburn chatter and Alabama gloom may inspire our guys but inspiration doesn't really overcome pure defensive knowledge gaps of playing depth that hasn't had many real reps until the last few weeks at a critical position.

i think this should be a firing offense for a board moderator.

 

[rgw]

I happen to think we still make the playoff field as long as we lose a close game...and we haven't lost very many in a blowout under Nick Saban. The last 2 score loss was only due to a fumble scoop n score on a drive where we could've tied the game late. We just need OU and Ohio State to win out and we're golden in my opinion. Pac-12 is functionally dead for the playoffs. Big Ten will be when Wisconsin loses.

 

[BamaMoon]

I think the OL vs. DL match ups are basically a wash, even with our injuries. Their placekicker is better and our punter is better - wash.

Where I think we are better is in the skill positions: QB, Running Backs, Receivers and Defensive backs. These are the playmakers!

I think we'll have to outscore them because they'll get some points.

Bama: 34
Barn: 23 (2 tds, 3 fgs)

 

[Bama Lee]

31-16 .... barn has to pass to win and it doesn’t work

 

[TrueCrimson7]

Bama 31
Auburn 27

 

[uafanataum]

This is what happens when you pull a post out of the thread without reading the whole thread to understand the context. We were discussing who get in if Alabama loses to Auburn. The other poster suggested that Alabama would get in ahead of the SECCG winner.

If that happens and Auburn wins the SECCG, Auburn would have wins over MSU, Georgia, Alabama and Georgia again.
If that happens and Georgia wins out, Georgia would have wins over ND, MSU and Auburn (which evens out their only loss - to Auburn).
Alabama would have wins of MSU (who both of the other teams beat), and LSU. So, which looks better? It not even close.

I did not say that Alabama cannot get in with a loss, but they would have to be the second SEC team in because the winner of the SECCG would get in ahead of Alabama.

Regardless of resume I think Alabama, when our LBs are healthy is the best team in the narion. Without our LB healthy I think we could still be the best team in the nation if the offense plays 4 quarters like it did the last quarter against MSU. The big question is can they do that on command now that they have had to do it before or will they play around the first few quarters.

 

[B1GTide]

I can't believe you guys are really picking Auburn. I hope that the team hasn't given up.

 

[RTR91]

I can't believe you guys are really picking Auburn. I hope that the team hasn't given up.

It's a combination of things:

1. Injuries
2. Auburn getting better
3. Jordan-Hare voodoo - they don't evenly distribute the voodoo to constantly go 8-4/9-3; instead, they save it up every few years for 10-2 or better seasons.

That being said, I'm feeling better about the game. Jalen is the difference maker in the end.

 

[CajunCrimson]

We just don't give up 20+ points very often....we just don't. Unless Stidham can run as well as the MSU QB.....(which I don't think he can, or wants to) -- and we don't have to tie up someone to spy on the QB every down -- that makes us even better at stopping the run.

Bama 35
Auburn 17

 

[uafanataum]

It's a combination of things:

1. Injuries
2. Auburn getting better
3. Jordan-Hare voodoo - they don't evenly distribute the voodoo to constantly go 8-4/9-3; instead, they save it up every few years for 10-2 or better seasons.

That being said, I'm feeling better about the game. Jalen is the difference maker in the end.

Exactly. If the Mississippi State game was a learning experience then I expect Jalen could carry this team even with so many injuries on the defensive side of the ball (much like Deshaun Watson for Clemson. ) Though I think our defense will come up big when the pressure rises and Hurts will not have to carry the team.

 

[TomFromBama]

MSU was an anomaly due to the injury situation with our defense and the run threat posed by their QB.
We MAY be "Healthier" on Defense - certainly will in the case of Minhah - but even if we don't have bodies back at LB, we've had two weeks of practice and study for Moses. So our defense will (at worst) be marginally BETTER than it was against MSU, with less of a threat of QB runs.

We've lost an OL, but probably Not lost much capability on the OL, and again, two weeks to practice with the alignment we'll use this weekend.

Looking at the whole season, we've scored more and allowed fewer points tham aub, which points to an Alabama victory, albeit a narrow one - along the lines of 29-24.

BUT, IF we give aub the "Benefit of the doubt", and there's some good reasons to do this - foremost among them that Stidham started very slow and it took him several weeks to "hit his stride" if you will in the SEC - But even giving them the benefit of that doubt, and "assuming" that the barn had an "Epiphany" after blowing the LSU game, started playing a lot better (which is arguable) and at the same time we might have been not quite as good as we were earlier in the year due to injuries or whatever (and I don't think that's the case) - still - even giving them ALL the benefits of those doubts, and looking JUST at the last 4 games for each team.
Both teams are 4-0
Both teams played 3 SEC opponents. Yes, Mercer is weaker than ULM, but I'm not sure we could seriously prove that aub's SEC opponents were tougher OVERALL than the 3 we played. (only ONE game difference in the overall W/L records of our respective opponents. Barn's last 3 SEC Opponents - 12-12, or last 3 - 20-13)
But regardless - we get an average scoring O for aub of 45.25 and for us 39.0
We get an average scoring D of only 10.25 (even wiht MSU lighting us up) but for aub, they've allowed 19.5 and they didn't play OU or Ok.St....

Based on JUST that "Recent" data, I STILL see us 1.5 points Better than aub. That doesn't take into account the typical "Home Field Advantage of 2-5-3 points, STILL, I'm willing to call it an Alabama advantage - UA 29 - aub 28.

And I HOPE its more like 50-10, but that's what I'm seeing, when we give aub almost EVERY POSSIBLE BENEFIT OF THE DOUBT.