Potential final ranking prognostication

[arthurdawg]

I still think it would be crazy to lose the SEC title game and get passed over. I also think we should just boycott the game if we truck Auburn and are a lock at 10-2.

I also think we are not peaking at the right time and with Ty struggling, I'm not sanguine about those SEC title game odds. I think it is more important for us to make the playoff field.

 

[Power Eye]

Running that playoff predictor.....unless Oklahoma loses we stay behind them even if we win the SECCG and finish 11-2. It's baked into whatever data they've put in there.

Miami isnt going to jump Notre Dame though. It's recency bias.

If we do beat Auburn and win the SECCG, then we would jump Oklahoma. The head-to-head matters when you have two teams the committee thinks have equal resumes. Winning the SEC would be a much greater data point that would put us in a top 4 position.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

If we do beat Auburn and win the SECCG, then we would jump Oklahoma. The head-to-head matters when you have two teams the committee thinks have equal resumes. Winning the SEC would be a much greater data point that would put us in a top 4 position.

I can see where on the surface that seems logical and unbiased.

No way the committee would jump us over OU though unless they lose to LSU.

The committee could and would justify it by saying yes Alabama is 11-2 SEC Champs but OU is 10-2 and beat them on their home field so they are better.

It doesn’t have to actually make sense or be correct.

Plus OU is already ranked higher in the FPI metrics based on SOR and SOS.

The SEC Championship doesn’t affect those numbers.

Beating A&M might but I doubt enough for the committee to make a move and ignore h-t-h.

They can do whatever they want and don’t have to justify it.

 

[Cruloc]

If we do beat Auburn and win the SECCG, then we would jump Oklahoma. The head-to-head matters when you have two teams the committee thinks have equal resumes. Winning the SEC would be a much greater data point that would put us in a top 4 position.

Unless we beat Auburn and then turn around and destroy ATM.....the committee will not jump us above Oklahoma. I can hear the reasoning now.....Oklahoma we didn't feel should drop below Alabama because they beat the SEC Champs in Tuscaloosa.

Conference champs no longer jump into the top 4 and get the bye.

If we win those 2 games.....I can see the top 4 finishing as Big 10 Champ, Georgia, Texas Tech, Big 10 #2.

So....Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana.

I also don't think they'd jump us over ATM or drop ATM down very far.....unless we blew them out.

The wild cards will be if BYU can upset Texas Tech in the Big12CG......and what does the committee do with the ACC. The ACC Champ looks like either Virginia or SMU. Plus, they've got to make room for the charity case Group of 5....either James Madison or North Texas it appears.

The ACC Champ would have to jump Miami. Virginia and SMU are several spots behind them in the ranking.

We are ranked low enough where we will have problems if we make it to Atlanta and lose. We make it and lose, and they move up the ACC Champ and the Group of 5 team.....we are out.

 

[PacadermaTideUs]

I think winning out with a win over A&M would jump us over Oklahoma to somewhere around 7th seed. We would have wins over 2 top 10 teams, one of which being the #2 seed. That should be more than enough to ignore the H2H vs Oklahoma.

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech
5. Mississippi
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Texas A&M
9. Oklahoma
10. Notre Dame

 

[RollTide_HTTR]

I think winning out with a win over A&M would jump us over Oklahoma to somewhere around 7th seed. We would have wins over 2 top 10 teams, one of which being the #2 seed. That should be more than enough to ignore the H2H vs Oklahoma.

1. Ohio State
2. Georgia
3. Indiana
4. Texas Tech
5. Mississippi
6. Oregon
7. Alabama
8. Texas A&M
9. Oklahoma
10. Notre Dame

Idk, I think we jump more than that with a win over A&M. We will have an SEC championship, wins over #4, #8, and #12(or higher if Vandy wins this week), plus wins over Tennesse (I'm assuming they fall out if they lose to Vandy) and Missouri.

Yes we have one bad loss to FSU but our other loss was by 2 to the #9 team in a weird game we probably should have won.

 

[TideEngineer08]

We will jump OU if we win the SECCG. It's not like they dominated in the win over us. We literally fumbled and threw the game away. Nearly doubled them in total yardage (and that is not just because they got short fields off turnovers; they had 7 total drives that started inside their own territory). We lost by only 2 points. That is simply not enough to definitively declare they are ranked ahead of us if we are 11-2 and SEC champs and they are 10-2.

But increasingly it becomes obvious we cannot afford to the lose the SEC championship. Which truly does not make sense at all. You know, in basketball, the conference tournaments generally do not give a team a bump or knock them out of the tournament if they don't win. Generally, all they do to impact the field of 68 is if a team on the bubble wins their conference tournament, then they get an auto-bid and knock another bubble team out. But if you enter the conference tournaments solidly in field of 68, it doesn't matter if you win or lose in your conference tournament.

 

[TideEngineer08]

By the way, could someone tell me why it is not a conflict of interest for these ADs to be on the CFP committee, particularly when the chair of the committee is the AD for Arkansas and it so happens that our DC has been rumored as a candidate for Arkansas's vacant head coach position? And wouldn't it be easier for that to be facilitated if Alabama is not in the playoff?

Is my tinfoil hat on properly?

 

[bamamc1]

Unless we beat Auburn and then turn around and destroy ATM.....the committee will not jump us above Oklahoma. I can hear the reasoning now.....Oklahoma we didn't feel should drop below Alabama because they beat the SEC Champs in Tuscaloosa.

Conference champs no longer jump into the top 4 and get the bye.

If we win those 2 games.....I can see the top 4 finishing as Big 10 Champ, Georgia, Texas Tech, Big 10 #2.

So....Ohio State, Georgia, Texas Tech, Indiana.

I also don't think they'd jump us over ATM or drop ATM down very far.....unless we blew them out.

The wild cards will be if BYU can upset Texas Tech in the Big12CG......and what does the committee do with the ACC. The ACC Champ looks like either Virginia or SMU. Plus, they've got to make room for the charity case Group of 5....either James Madison or North Texas it appears.

The ACC Champ would have to jump Miami. Virginia and SMU are several spots behind them in the ranking.

We are ranked low enough where we will have problems if we make it to Atlanta and lose. We make it and lose, and they move up the ACC Champ and the Group of 5 team.....we are out.

That group of 5 getting a bid is an absolute disgrace.

 

[Cruloc]

By the way, could someone tell me why it is not a conflict of interest for these ADs to be on the CFP committee, particularly when the chair of the committee is the AD for Arkansas and it so happens that our DC has been rumored as a candidate for Arkansas's vacant head coach position? And wouldn't it be easier for that to be facilitated if Alabama is not in the playoff?

Is my tinfoil hat on properly?

The whole CFP committee apparatus is a conflict of interest. Its a money grab, not a means to a real playoff.

Even though it is stated in their "policies" that anyone with a conflict of interest must step aside from discussions and voting.

There are a lot of people involved. You've got some old retired coaches, that's ok.....you've got former players, meh, ok......then you've got AD's on the committee and behind the scenes.....and multiple university presidents behind the scenes.

Almost anything involving boards and committees will devolve into a corrupt mess....because humans. There will be biases, there will be back room deals, there will be things that have nothing to do with actual football.

 

[tusks_n_raider]

The whole CFP committee apparatus is a conflict of interest. Its a money grab, not a means to a real playoff.

Even though it is stated in their "policies" that anyone with a conflict of interest must step aside from discussions and voting.

There are a lot of people involved. You've got some old retired coaches, that's ok.....you've got former players, meh, ok......then you've got AD's on the committee and behind the scenes.....and multiple university presidents behind the scenes.

Almost anything involving boards and committees will devolve into a corrupt mess....because humans. There will be biases, there will be back room deals, there will be things that have nothing to do with actual football.

I have less than 0% faith in them to do anything based upon fair objective reasoning.

They are never really transparent with their methods.

I mean sure they rattle off answers sometimes but they also contradict themselves from week to week and year to year.

They use buzzwords like Data Points and Metrics and SOR and SOS etc etc etc but they ultimately do whatever they want no matter how incongruous it is to what they’ve said in previous weeks.

I’ll continue to challenge every lie that comes out of their Weasley mealy mouths because they pulled the rug out from everyone last year and I want to make sure everyone remembers.

They will not do ‘what it right’ or ‘what makes sense’.

 

[Power Eye]

By the way, could someone tell me why it is not a conflict of interest for these ADs to be on the CFP committee, particularly when the chair of the committee is the AD for Arkansas and it so happens that our DC has been rumored as a candidate for Arkansas's vacant head coach position? And wouldn't it be easier for that to be facilitated if Alabama is not in the playoff?

Is my tinfoil hat on properly?

It is, and frankly, I hate the complete lack of transparency with the committee. I know the conferences agreed on this, but I have to wonder if they are having some buyer's remorse, at least in terms of the committee's ability to do the rankings in a twelve team scenario. I would assume the only committee that is happy would be the Big 10.

With that said, I actually think the committee has gotten it right pretty much every year by the time the final rankings come around. Last year was questionable, but I am certainly not willing to die on the hill that we should have been in over SMU. Therefore, I am willing to have some faith that they will get it right by December 7th. I do think they will potentially have some tough decisions to make with Miami, BYU, us, Vandy, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and maybe even Michigan (though unlikely). At most, only three of those teams are getting in.

I don't care about this week's rankings really, but assuming we beat Auburn (which is a big assumption, but makes this conversation irrelevant if we don't), then I do care about the following week's rankings and whether or not we are ahead of ND, because if we aren't, then our at-large playoff hopes will most likely be dependent on the outcome of he Big 12 championship game.

 

[DzynKingRTR]

By the way, could someone tell me why it is not a conflict of interest for these ADs to be on the CFP committee, particularly when the chair of the committee is the AD for Arkansas and it so happens that our DC has been rumored as a candidate for Arkansas's vacant head coach position? And wouldn't it be easier for that to be facilitated if Alabama is not in the playoff?

Is my tinfoil hat on properly?

According to their rules, the arkie AD isn't allowed to have a say with any SEC team. Same goes for the others and their respective conferences. I am not sure how that is even possible. I guess when certain teams are discussed they put their fingers in their ears and say la la la I can't hear you.

 

[bamamc1]

By the way, could someone tell me why it is not a conflict of interest for these ADs to be on the CFP committee, particularly when the chair of the committee is the AD for Arkansas and it so happens that our DC has been rumored as a candidate for Arkansas's vacant head coach position? And wouldn't it be easier for that to be facilitated if Alabama is not in the playoff?

Is my tinfoil hat on properly?

I have watched Oklahoma two weeks in a row and their offense doesn't impress me. They had 212 total yards against us and 300 last week with 87 coming on a pass off a coverage bust. So yurachek's "Bama doesn't have a run game" is garbage.

 

[GrayTide]

Why can't the committee make it simple, (not likely)? The top 12 ranked teams after all conference championships games are completed. No provision for conference champions, and no 3 loss teams. The committee needs to be dissolved and replaced with a new BCS model with clear and concise metrics.

 

[TideEngineer08]

It is, and frankly, I hate the complete lack of transparency with the committee. I know the conferences agreed on this, but I have to wonder if they are having some buyer's remorse, at least in terms of the committee's ability to do the rankings in a twelve team scenario. I would assume the only committee that is happy would be the Big 10.

With that said, I actually think the committee has gotten it right pretty much every year by the time the final rankings come around. Last year was questionable, but I am certainly not willing to die on the hill that we should have been in over SMU. Therefore, I am willing to have some faith that they will get it right by December 7th. I do think they will potentially have some tough decisions to make with Miami, BYU, us, Vandy, Oklahoma, Notre Dame, and maybe even Michigan (though unlikely). At most, only three of those teams are getting in.

I don't care about this week's rankings really, but assuming we beat Auburn (which is a big assumption, but makes this conversation irrelevant if we don't), then I do care about the following week's rankings and whether or not we are ahead of ND, because if we aren't, then our at-large playoff hopes will most likely be dependent on the outcome of he Big 12 championship game.

It was easier to get it right when it was just 4 teams. Now with 12 teams there is more data to parse, and with expanded conferences, it is far more difficult to truly evaluate these teams against one another. Consider that Texas A&M has not played a single conference opponent that resides in the top half of the conference. The Big Ten is extremely top heavy and thus none of its contenders have truly been challenged in conference. And Notre Dame has gotten a huge break in its ACC schedule this season, along with USC being average, so the only 2 times they've been challenged, they've lost.

What you have done is essentially given this committee a huge sandbox to play around in. Or better yet, a huge china shop for them to romp around in and destroy.

According to their rules, the arkie AD isn't allowed to have a say with any SEC team. Same goes for the others and their respective conferences. I am not sure how that is even possible. I guess when certain teams are discussed they put their fingers in their ears and say la la la I can't hear you.

They are supposed to leave the room entirely. I guarantee they don't or at least they influence opinion in any way they can while they are in the room.

 

[jjv0004]

I think all the talk about jumping OK is a moot point. We have to beat Auburn first to even get to the SEC Championship. I am not real confident in step one. Then, we have to beat A&M. I don't see that happening with this incredibly one dimensional offense and a QB who appears to be struggling for a while now.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

I think all the talk about jumping OK is a moot point. We have to beat Auburn first to even get to the SEC Championship. I am not real confident in step one. Then, we have to beat A&M. I don't see that happening with this incredibly one dimensional offense and a QB who appears to be struggling for a while now.

I agree!

I think this whole thread is a bit premature until after the awbern game...and a win!

 

[KrAzY3]

Running that playoff predictor.....unless Oklahoma loses we stay behind them even if we win the SECCG and finish 11-2. It's baked into whatever data they've put in there.

Miami isnt going to jump Notre Dame though. It's recency bias.

It's illogical is what it is, but the committee has been consistently illogical.

They do what they want, then they figure out the justification for it after the fact. There is no consistently, there is no precedent, rule, or approach that they adhere to. It's just literally what ever the heck they felt like at a given time.

 

[Cruloc]

I agree!

I think this whole thread is a bit premature until after the awbern game...and a win!

Well, we could start talk about next year.