Russia Invades Ukraine pt XII

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crimsonaudio

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Tidewater

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"Si monumentum requiris circumspice."
This was on the front inside cover of The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich. My dad had a copy when I was growing up.
The photo over the inscription was of Berlin in 1945, bombed out shells of buildings and piles of rubble.
"If you seek his monument, look around you."
 

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Tidewater

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Yeah, definitely comes across like wishful thinking. Or hoping public pressure will make a difference.
Sad to say, but the U.S. has already promised to help protect Ukrianian territorial integrity, in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nukes based in Ukraine.
Had the Ukrainians not trusted us and had they taken over the Soviet nukes based in Ukraine, they would not be in the situation they are in today. On the other hand, there might have been a nuclear exchange between Russia and Ukraine.
 

TexasBama

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Sad to say, but the U.S. has already promised to help protect Ukrianian territorial integrity, in exchange for Ukraine giving up the nukes based in Ukraine.
Had the Ukrainians not trusted us and had they taken over the Soviet nukes based in Ukraine, they would not be in the situation they are in today. On the other hand, there might have been a nuclear exchange between Russia and Ukraine.
If you’re talking about the Budapest Agreement, it doesn’t really say that, though Russia has violated it.


I’ve always thought the phrase “the only good Russian is dead Russian” was over the top, but I’m warming to it
 

Tidewater

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If you’re talking about the Budapest Agreement, it doesn’t really say that, though Russia has violated it.

True, but when the US and UK agreed that "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine," the Ukrainians thought the US and UK were committed to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
I am fairly certain that, had the Ukrainians seized and retained the Soviet nuclear weapons based in Ukrainian territory, (against the recommendations of the Clinton Administation) no Russian invasion would have happened in 2014 or 2022.
 

TexasBama

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True, but when the US and UK agreed that "The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and The United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles of the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine," the Ukrainians thought the US and UK were committed to the territorial integrity of Ukraine.
I am fairly certain that, had the Ukrainians seized and retained the Soviet nuclear weapons based in Ukrainian territory, (against the recommendations of the Clinton Administation) no Russian invasion would have happened in 2014 or 2022.
it is pretty mealy mouthed document
 

twofbyc

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Ukrainian officials explain their defense of Bakhmut by saying Russia is using massive resources and keeping them occupied all while being degraded, hopefully to the point Ukraine is successful with their counteroffensive.
Not a bad strategy- danger is in Ukraine’s military also being degraded. May be why Putin is increasing missile attacks.
Such a disgrace to humanity.
 
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Tidewater

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Ukrainian officials explain their defense of Bakhmut by saying Russia is using massive resources and keeping them occupied all while being degraded, hopefully to the point Ukraine is successful with their counteroffensive..
In the summer of 1941, the Germans had seized a bridgehead over the upper reaches of the Dniepr at a place called Yelnya Bend. Stalin badly want that bridgehead reduced, so he threw tons of Red Army units at the bridgehead. The Germans badly wanted to keep the bridgehead so they fed lots on men and ammo into the defense. It just became a contest of wills between Stalin and Hitler. Eventually, the Germans blinked and evacuated the bridgehead. It seems they were grinding down good units to nothing trying to hold an almost worthless bridgehead. But the Red Army ground down a bunch of units trying to reduce the bridgehead as well, units they would need when the Germans launched phase II of their summer offensive.
Bakhmut feels a little like that.
 
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4Q Basket Case

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In the summer of 1941, the Germans had seized a bridgehead over the upper reaches of the Dniepr at a place called Yelnya Bend. Stalin badly want that bridgehead reduced, so he threw tons of Red Army units at the bridgehead. The Germans badly wanted to keep the bridgehead so they fed lots on men and ammo into the defense. It just became a contest of wills between Stalin and Hitler. Eventually, the Germans blinked and evacuated the bridgehead. It seems they were grinding down good units to nothing trying to hold an almost worthless bridgehead. But the Red Army ground down a bunch of units trying to reduce the bridgehead as well, units they would need when the Germans launched phase II of their summer offensive.
Bakhmut feels a little like that.
Agreed.

Acknowledging that both the Russians and the Ukrainians fudge (or falsify, depending on your allegiance) the casualty numbers, I think it’s clear the Ukrainians are winning that battle.

Thing is, the Russians significantly outnumber them. So the Ukrainians need to win it by a lot.

Whether they’re winning by enough, I don’t know. I’m not sure anybody does.…maybe not even the combatants.

I do know that Putin doesn’t mind throwing bodies at the problem — it’s one way to empty the prisons.

There’s a three-way dynamic between (1) Putin, (2) the Ukrainians, and (3) the Russian public’s ongoing tolerance for body bags, that will be fascinating to watch play out.
 

Tidewater

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Agreed.

Acknowledging that both the Russians and the Ukrainians fudge (or falsify, depending on your allegiance) the casualty numbers, I think it’s clear the Ukrainians are winning that battle.

Thing is, the Russians significantly outnumber them. So the Ukrainians need to win it by a lot.

Whether they’re winning by enough, I don’t know. I’m not sure anybody does.…maybe not even the combatants. What Russians know is what Russian television tells them and the Russian government and friends of Putin own all the television networks, now that Dozhd has been closed down.

I do know that Putin doesn’t mind throwing bodies at the problem — it’s one way to empty the prisons.

There’s a three-way dynamic between (1) Putin, (2) the Ukrainians, and (3) the Russian public’s ongoing tolerance for body bags, that will be fascinating to watch play out.
As for #3, I am not sure how much the Russian public knows. It is illegal, for example to take a photo of a cemetery near a Russian army base.
Russians get their news from the television and all the networks are owned by the Russian government or by friends of Putin.
 
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TIDE-HSV

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In the summer of 1941, the Germans had seized a bridgehead over the upper reaches of the Dniepr at a place called Yelnya Bend. Stalin badly want that bridgehead reduced, so he threw tons of Red Army units at the bridgehead. The Germans badly wanted to keep the bridgehead so they fed lots on men and ammo into the defense. It just became a contest of wills between Stalin and Hitler. Eventually, the Germans blinked and evacuated the bridgehead. It seems they were grinding down good units to nothing trying to hold an almost worthless bridgehead. But the Red Army ground down a bunch of units trying to reduce the bridgehead as well, units they would need when the Germans launched phase II of their summer offensive.
Bakhmut feels a little like that.
I keep reading that many "experts" think that's exactly what the Ukrainians are doing...
 
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