Russia Invades Ukraine XIX
- Thread starter Huckleberry
- Start date
I'm 100% on board with this.
Putting troops in Ukraine is a different matter, but incursions into NATO airspace should be met with brutally efficient response.
I do not put too much credit into it for a few reasons.
First, Russia was a net loser to Ukraine in the creation of Ukraine in the 1920s to 1950s (Donbas and Crimea). Russian is a net gainer vis-a-vis Finland. Russia took land from Finland in 1940 and 1945 (Karelia & Petsamo/Kirkenes).
Second, Finns are different kettle of fish from Ukrainians. Russians saw Ukrainians as bungling country bumpkins. Finns are tough and smart and gave the Soviets a bloody nose in 1940. In the 2000s and 2010s, Ukrainian was trying in a half-hearted way.to modernize with mixed success. Between 2014 and 2022, the Ukrainians did modernize a good bit, which was why they gave Russia a bloody nose in 2022. The Finns are very professional and dedicated already.
Third, the Russia propaganda in the run-up to 2022 was that Ukraine was not a separate country from Great Russia. Everyone acknowledges Finland's independence. Even the the most chauvinistic Russian knows Finns are not Slavs. They do not speak a Slavic language. They are not orthodox. They are next to Russia but sui generis.
Finland has more artillery than any army in Europe. and it is high quality and they have had three years to ramp up production of ammo.
Bottom line? Russia is angry that Finland joined NATO, but I seriously doubt they are going to invade.
Then again, I said a Russian invasion of Ukraine was so stupid Putin would not do that, but he did.
I was involved in military planning exercises with Brits and Americans. At the beginning of any crisis, the Brits were always looking for the legal mandate for action: what gives us the legal justification for doing this? When the UK declared a maritime exclusion zone around the Falklands, the Argentinian sent the Belgrano across the line and then immediately retreated back outside the line, thin back in then out, etc., etc. The Brits were desperate to catch the Belgrano inside the MEZ. Eventually, the Argentinians were dumb enough to get caught, and HMS Conqueror sent Belgrano to the bottom of the sea. The Americans, neither knew nor cared what international law said. If the president judged it was in the interest of the United States to do something, then that was good enough for them.
In this case, the legalities matter to Europeans. For the Poles, I don't know what is the sovereignty status of an oil platform in the Baltic beyond the 12 nautical mile territorial waters limit. For Estonia if there's a 12 minute violation of Estonian airspace by Russian fighters having the legal justification is there, I just don't know if they have the capability. If the Russians are flying low, a shoulder fired stinger can do the job. But the Stinger gunner has got to know that the enemy aircraft is coming so we can cool the seeker head, and he needs to have approval by the head of state to shoot in such a case.
Putin Decides He Can Step Up Attacks on Kyiv and Trump Won’t Act
President Vladimir Putin has concluded that military escalation is the best way to force Ukraine into talks on his terms and that Donald Trump is unlikely to do much to bolster Kyiv’s defenses, according to people close to the Kremlin.
www.bloomberg.com
Putins PuppetPutin Decides He Can Step Up Attacks on Kyiv and Trump Won’t Act
President Vladimir Putin has concluded that military escalation is the best way to force Ukraine into talks on his terms and that Donald Trump is unlikely to do much to bolster Kyiv’s defenses, according to people close to the Kremlin.
TACO Tuesday... And the rest of the week.Putins Puppet
U.S. President Donald J. Trump has told NATO countries that they should shoot down Russian military aircraft that enter their airspace, according to Reuters.
So many questions:
Why is Putin doing this? He can barely handle what he's already started in Ukraine, and his one big advantage (numbers of cannon fodder and willingness to use his men that way), is precariously close to being offset by Ukrainian tech. Plus, he doesn't have the demographics to replace the killed or disabled 18 - 34 year old men he's losing. Why would he risk having to fight another country or countries for other reasons? Why is he poking this bear?
Why did Trump suddenly about-face and tell the Europeans to go ahead and shoot down Russian incursions? Is he just now realizing that Putin has played him like Itzhak Perlman plays a Stradivarius? Was Trump ever bribed by Putin with anything besides flattery? If so, how come Trump has now told the Europeans to have at it? Did the money run out? If not, how come Trump is just now seeing how stupid he's looked for years?
None of this makes any sense.
The only thing that's made any logical sense in this whole deal is Putin's initial invasion. True, he miscalculated the strength of his own army, the resolve of the Ukrainians, and the willingness of the west to help them. So it turned out to be a strategic blunder. But before the fact, a lot of people thought he'd overrun Ukraine inside 90 days, maybe 30. FWIW, I was one of them. But given the assumptions he and a lot of others made on Day 1, it was logical at that time.
Why is Putin doing this? He can barely handle what he's already started in Ukraine, and his one big advantage (numbers of cannon fodder and willingness to use his men that way), is precariously close to being offset by Ukrainian tech. Plus, he doesn't have the demographics to replace the killed or disabled 18 - 34 year old men he's losing. Why would he risk having to fight another country or countries for other reasons? Why is he poking this bear?
Why did Trump suddenly about-face and tell the Europeans to go ahead and shoot down Russian incursions? Is he just now realizing that Putin has played him like Itzhak Perlman plays a Stradivarius? Was Trump ever bribed by Putin with anything besides flattery? If so, how come Trump has now told the Europeans to have at it? Did the money run out? If not, how come Trump is just now seeing how stupid he's looked for years?
None of this makes any sense.
The only thing that's made any logical sense in this whole deal is Putin's initial invasion. True, he miscalculated the strength of his own army, the resolve of the Ukrainians, and the willingness of the west to help them. So it turned out to be a strategic blunder. But before the fact, a lot of people thought he'd overrun Ukraine inside 90 days, maybe 30. FWIW, I was one of them. But given the assumptions he and a lot of others made on Day 1, it was logical at that time.
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Has Trump previously told NATO allies not to do this (re: about-face)? Genuine question, as I've not heard that (I admittedly don't keep up with the news as much as many here).
I was thinking more about Trump’s previous deafening silence on Russian escalation.
BREAKING: Trump calls Russia a paper tiger and says he believes Ukraine, with the EU’s help, can take back all of Ukraine’s territory
Trump's policy on Ukraine is slightly inconsistent.
Well, he's still confused about NATO and its role, but he no longer seems to fear Putin. I hope Tidewater will chime in with what more we can do that we haven't done so far for Ukraine...
“I’m very grateful to President Trump. I can’t share the details right now. Trump possesses very important information regarding the situation on the front line” — Zelensky
Right now, Putin seems to be intent on reducing Ukraine to rubble, using his Iskander supersonic missiles, which we can't stop, IIRC, Us there a countermeasure which can make Putin think twice on this tactic?
Secretary of War Pete Hegseth spoke yesterday with Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur for the first time since last week’s incursion by several Russian fighter jets into Estonia’s Airspace over the Gulf of Finland. Secretary Hegseth affirmed the U.S. War Department stands with all NATO allies and that any incursion into NATO Airspace is unacceptable, commending the quick response by European allies' air defenses stating it showed NATO at its best, ready and focused on their core mission. The Secretary ensured the Minister that he was in close consultation with the Supreme Allied Commander for Europe about next steps and would continue to closely track the situation in Eastern Europe.
Looking like something fundamental has changed wrt the US response to this Russian invasion...
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