Were you able to make it back?
I'd be unlikely to fly to Europe at the moment... actual risk may be low, but the perceived and possible dangers are there.
Russia Invades Ukraine XIX
- Thread starter Huckleberry
- Start date
-
HELLO AGAIN, Guest! We are back, live! We're still doing some troubleshooting and maintenance to fix a few remaining issues but everything looks stable now (except front page which we're working on over next day or two) Thanks for your patience and support! MUCH appreciated! --Brett (BamaNation) if you see any problems - please post them in the Troubleshooting board!
Were you able to make it back?
I'd be unlikely to fly to Europe at the moment... actual risk may be low, but the perceived and possible dangers are there.
It's taken longer than he predicted, but Peter Zeihan's assessment it turning out to be right.
When refineries get damaged, the biggest problem for Russia is that they can't repair it. IOW, they don't have the technical expertise to get it working again. Or if they can do it at all, it's a really slow process.
The engineering considerations are light years beyond my understanding, but Zeihan says it also creates upstream problems in their oil transport system. As in, they have a lot of oil flowing through the pipes. At some point, it has to leave the pipeline to make room for product newly pumped from the ground. This is part of what refineries do -- relieve pressure on the pipes.
With refineries out, there's no place for the oil to go. So it backs up. So it creates a lot of pressure. Eventually, the pressure cracks pipes and/or pumping stations. If that happens in Siberia (where a lot of the oil fields are), it's a massive problem due to the weather and soil conditions. And the Russians have absolutely no home-grown ability to deal with that.
In my observation, Zeihan's greatest shortcoming is consistently underestimating the ability of people in crisis to adapt. I'm guessing the Russians would find a way to store the oil or to othewise remove it from the pipes....even if they have to dump it out into the open or into the Black Sea. It's not as if they have a track record of environmental sensitivity.
Point being, the Ukrainians make a lot of progress on a lot of fronts if they reduce the Russians' ability to refine oil. Which is why they're doing what they're doing.
Last edited:
Why can’t Russia put more oil into tankers and ship (i.e. sell) it at a discount to India and China?
That would not solve their gas crisis issue, but it will get them more $$$$.
The weakest link here would be their tanker fleet
I was. It seems the German police were able to increase the risk to drone pilots. I flew through Munich on Sunday and got home last night. No worries.
Plus, I think the Russians had made their point: "Hey, Europe. Be careful what you do. Getting a drone into a commercial jet airliner engine would not be that difficult if we really wanted to."
They could ship oil but it would be more expensive than just pumping through existing pipelines.
I was amazed at the percentage of disruption they've caused. That amount of disruption would cause gas lines here...
I know you know this Earle...I'm just explaining for folks who weren't around for the Arab oil embargo and being thrown over a barrel by OPEC.
We can thank our lucky stars for shale oil and fracking.
We used to be the world's largest importer of oil, and that caused all manner of problems, mainly derived from being beholden to OPEC for economic and political stability. The OFC still remembers the Arab oil embargo and the disruption of the mid-1970s.
We're now the world's largest exporter of oil and could be 100% self-sufficient if we had to be. Because of logistics involved with getting oil over the Rockies to the US west coast, we typically import oil there. But in a pinch, we'd manage just fine on our own.
That's how we can tell OPEC to pound sand from an energy perspective. Concerns like keeping the Iranians, Iraquis, Houthis, etc., in line are definitely considerations. But they don't involve US domestic energy  which was once the case.
We can thank our lucky stars for shale oil and fracking.
We used to be the world's largest importer of oil, and that caused all manner of problems, mainly derived from being beholden to OPEC for economic and political stability. The OFC still remembers the Arab oil embargo and the disruption of the mid-1970s.
We're now the world's largest exporter of oil and could be 100% self-sufficient if we had to be. Because of logistics involved with getting oil over the Rockies to the US west coast, we typically import oil there. But in a pinch, we'd manage just fine on our own.
That's how we can tell OPEC to pound sand from an energy perspective. Concerns like keeping the Iranians, Iraquis, Houthis, etc., in line are definitely considerations. But they don't involve US domestic energy  which was once the case.
Last edited:
I got made fun of once for saying oil is fungible, once it's out on the world market. (Then NFTs came along and people don't make fun of it any more.) Oil has to be paired up with refineries by type and that means that there's constant swapping of crude stocks...
I have been thinking about this but not in those terms...he really does not like Russia and thinks they are on a downward slope...same with China. Sometimes I think he is playing to his audience...but he does cite facts at times -- particularly birth rates!!!
I do think he’s directionally right on both Russia and China. But I also think he’s a bit short on the timeframe to collapse.
Economies and populations that size can do a lot of stuff to stave off the collapse  and they will. But numbers is numbers, and they can only delay, not prevent it
Also, it’s highly likely that the true demographic situation for both is worse than stated. Russia lies every time their lips move. Plus they’ve lost a huge cohort of 18-34 year old men in the war that they can’t replace. That’s a twofold problem because men in that group are typically prime age for both military service and making babies.
If they’re dead, maimed or have simply left the country, they aren’t available for either duty.
China’s published numbers are bad, and they’re lying through their teeth to make them look non-horrendous.
So Zeihan thinks the end for both is near. I think it’s coming….but by hook and crook they’ll rock along for a while. Then, when the collapse comes, it’ll be fast -- a lot like when the wall fell in 1989. Lots of noise for a while, but nothing much happened until one day everything happened.
Which probably means it’ll also be chaotic, violent, and it’ll be impossible to predict who will do what in the death throes.
A guy who’s shot multiple times might be only a minute or two from bleeding out. But if he’s hopped up on crystal meth or purple crunk or whatever, he can still do a lot of damage before he keels over.
Last edited:
During World War II, advocates of strategic bombing overestimated their own effectiveness.
What they missed was the urgency of recuperability. If you tell an opponent that if X happens, they lose, then you have given them a powerful incentive to avoid X. The Allies bomb railyards, aerial reconnaissance verified that they were destroyed, and the Allies moved on to the next target. Then the Germans good really efficient at repairing damaged rail lines.
Same here. If you tell Putin, "If X happens Russia loses (and you personally die)," you've given him a powerful incentive to ensure X does not happen.
BREAKING: Ukraine has set a new world record for the longest suicide drone strike in a war. Ukrainian suicide drones have hit a Russian oil refinery in Tyumen, 2100 km (1300 miles) away from the Ukrainian border. The previous record on 1800 km was set in August.
Russians really struggle with windows in tall buildings...
Vyacheslav Leontyev, head of the Pravda publishing house, has died suddenly in Moscow Pravda (Truth) was the official newspaper of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union Leontyev died after falling out of a window from his 8th-floor Moscow apartment
Vyacheslav Leontyev, head of the Pravda publishing house, has died suddenly in Moscow Pravda (Truth) was the official newspaper of the Communist Party in the Soviet Union Leontyev died after falling out of a window from his 8th-floor Moscow apartment
That tells you all you need to know about Russian air defenses. A relatively slow drone flies 1,300 miles in the heart of Russian territory and they either (1) didn't know it was there, or (2) knew, but couldn't do anything about it.
For a bit of context, the drive from New York City to Miami is about 1,300 miles.
Not only that, but they've been openly complaining about the crimp the Ukrainians have put in their oil system. You'd think they'd have extra security around existing refineries, etc...
"Russian strikes in recent days have wiped out more than half of Ukraine’s domestic natural gas production, likely forcing the war-battered country to spend 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) on fuel imports to survive the looming winter.
Kyiv told its allies earlier this week that a massive Russian barrage targeting the Kharkiv and Poltava regions on Oct. 3 took out roughly 60% of the country’s gas production, according to people with knowledge of the matter. They requested anonymity because the discussions are private...
If the strikes continue, Ukraine expects it will need to buy roughly 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of March, at a cost of nearly 2 billion euros, according to people familiar with the details. That’s the equivalent of nearly 20% of Ukraine’s annual consumption."
bloomberg.com
Welp, this is definitely going to suck for Europe. American NG exporters are about to make some serious bank.
Kyiv told its allies earlier this week that a massive Russian barrage targeting the Kharkiv and Poltava regions on Oct. 3 took out roughly 60% of the country’s gas production, according to people with knowledge of the matter. They requested anonymity because the discussions are private...
If the strikes continue, Ukraine expects it will need to buy roughly 4.4 billion cubic meters of gas by the end of March, at a cost of nearly 2 billion euros, according to people familiar with the details. That’s the equivalent of nearly 20% of Ukraine’s annual consumption."
Russian Strikes Knock Out More than Half of Ukraine Gas Production Ahead of Winter
Russian strikes in recent days have wiped out more than half of Ukraine’s domestic natural gas production, likely forcing the war-battered country to spend 1.9 billion euros ($2.2 billion) on fuel imports to survive the looming winter.
bloomberg.com
Welp, this is definitely going to suck for Europe. American NG exporters are about to make some serious bank.
What's old is new again.
Ukrainians putting the M2 .50 caliber machine gun to good use.
Ukraine's war surges demand for a 100-year-old heavy machine gun
The Special Forces Weapons Committee (that trained 18B Weapons Sergeants) at the Q-Course at Bragg used to have a shrine to John Moses Browning. They worshipped him like a god.
Browning High Power pistol. Browning Automative Rifle, "Ma Deuce", the 1919 Machine Gun. Genius gun designer.
Ukrainians putting the M2 .50 caliber machine gun to good use.
Ukraine's war surges demand for a 100-year-old heavy machine gun
The Special Forces Weapons Committee (that trained 18B Weapons Sergeants) at the Q-Course at Bragg used to have a shrine to John Moses Browning. They worshipped him like a god.
Browning High Power pistol. Browning Automative Rifle, "Ma Deuce", the 1919 Machine Gun. Genius gun designer.
Trending content
Latest threads
-
-
ESPN: UTSA coach fires back at Tulane for 'noise' talk- Started by TideFans Reporter
- Replies: 0
-
ESPN: Jackson prevails in HBCU coaching clash vs. Vick
- Started by TideFans Reporter
- Replies: 0
-
LeFlore fired new head coach before tonight’s game- Started by BamaNation
- Replies: 0