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Russia Invades Ukraine XIX

4Q Basket Case said:
Dr. Tim Wilson -- I didn't know who he was until a few months ago, and have seen some of his stuff since then. He certainly gives the impression of having considered positions. The British accent probably doesn't hurt on that front.

In addition to his assessment of recent events and trends, I'd be interested to hear what he thinks will happen in the future and when. Not asking for dates, but rather time frames -- as in, 90 days out or sooner? Six months? A year? I'd also be interested to hear the basis for his predictions.

Not questioning or saying he's full of it at all -- rather, what do you think will happen, when and why. Based on his delivery (both content and style), I'd bet he has some thoughts on that.

I'm certainly no Tidewater or Padreruf on the subject, but my understanding is that Russia is usually extremely hard, but brittle. IOW, they're really tough until all of a sudden they disintegrate. Does he think that will happen? If so, what will be the first signs?

I love asking questions of people who know what they're talking about.
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I have no idea if Professor Wilson is legit or not. He does teach @ The Moscow State Pedagogical Institute in Moscow. He was in theatre and studied theology @ Oxford. All this from his wikipedia page. I do know from listening to Peter Ziehan that he has expressed warnings for Russia as to their number of casualties in this war.
 
4Q Basket Case said:
Dr. Tim Wilson -- I didn't know who he was until a few months ago, and have seen some of his stuff since then. He certainly gives the impression of having considered positions. The British accent probably doesn't hurt on that front.

In addition to his assessment of recent events and trends, I'd be interested to hear what he thinks will happen in the future and when. Not asking for dates, but rather time frames -- as in, 90 days out or sooner? Six months? A year? I'd also be interested to hear the basis for his predictions.

Not questioning or saying he's full of it at all -- rather, what do you think will happen, when and why. Based on his delivery (both content and style), I'd bet he has some thoughts on that.

I'm certainly no Tidewater or Padreruf on the subject, but my understanding is that Russia is usually extremely hard, but brittle. IOW, they're really tough until all of a sudden they disintegrate. Does he think that will happen? If so, what will be the first signs?

I love asking questions of people who know what they're talking about.
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Not named, but you can find examples of both behaviors in Russian history. In 1918, Russian society was already strained to the breaking point. In WWII, just ask the Germans how Russians break. I'm not sure that it's possible to gauge the degree of strain there from the outside, maybe not even from the inside...
 
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Trump kisses Putin's butt again :mad:
The U.S. is temporarily greenlighting the purchase of Russian oil that's already at sea, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Thursday, in the Trump administration's latest move to loosen the wartime sanctions that restrict Russia's oil industry as the world grapples with high oil prices.
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When the Soviet Union dies, the constituent republics all seceded. Moldova, sandwiched between Romania and Ukraine and the poorest country in Europe, had a largely-Russian region on the eastern side of the Dniester River. When Moldova was about to secede in 1991, Transnistria seceded from Moldova, and the Russian army stationed there sided with the Transnistrians. Moldova, not having enough military power to eject the Russians acquiesced and waited for better days.
Maia Sandu, PM of Moldova and a Harvard grad, has decided to no longer tolerate the Russian Army stations in it breakaway region. You cannot get to Transnistria except though Moldova or Ukraine, so there is little the Transnistrians/Russians can do about it.
We'll see what happens, but I am surprised it took this long.
Most of the "Russians" stationed in Transnistria are ethnic Russian Moldovans, so there has not been a big transfer of Russian soldiers into and out of Transnistria for a long time.
 
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From RFE/RL:

Putin Says He Thinks Ukraine Conflict 'Coming To End,' But Shows No Signs Of Compromise​

"It is understandable that the ‌American side is in a hurry," Dmitry Peskov told state television on May 9. "But the issue of a Ukrainian settlement is far too complex, and reaching a peace agreement is a very long way with complex details."

What the Russians say in public and what they say behind closed doors are two different things.
 
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Whenever the Russians issue an ambiguous statement, you can bet they’re planning to resolve the ambiguity in their favor.

It could mean Putin thinks Ukraine is about to break. It could mean he plans to break them with a big escalation. I don’t think he’d do it, but it could be a veiled threat of a nuke.

I think the least likely scenarios are that he means either (1) he’s ready to negotiate in good faith (whatever “good faith” might mean to Putin), or (2) he thinks Russia is about to break.

Shoot….even on the rare occasion when the Russians issue an unambiguous statement, it could be either an outright lie or they use a false flag to claim the circumstances have changed and the original statement is no longer valid.

IOW, what they say means nothing. What they do is the only credible statement.
 
I do not know.
I went and looked at DeepStateMaps again, and the confrontation line continues to creep westward.
There are undoubtedly things happening beyond our visibility, things Putin knows about that we do not. Hopefully, he has realized he will fun out of people before he overruns all of Ukraine and figures it might be time to look like the magnanimous one.
Regardless of what happens, Russia has created a world that see him for what he is and a Ukraine seething with hatred for Russia. This hatred will last for generations, maybe centuries.
 
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i don't know what it means in the grand scheme of things, but he had to go hat in hand to drumph to ask him to ask zelenski to not bomb his little victory day parade

uk.news.yahoo.com

Zelensky Trolls Putin By Announcing Ukraine Will Honor Ceasefire for Moscow Parade — By Including Exact Military Coordinates

In the official government statement announcing a temporary ceasefire, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky seemed to take the opportunity to troll Russia.
uk.news.yahoo.com uk.news.yahoo.com


The statement continued with a listing of the specific military coordinates for the Red Square:

Taking into account numerous requests, with a humanitarian purpose outlined in negotiations with the American side on May 8, 2026, I hereby decree:

1. To allow a parade to be held in Moscow (Russian Federation) on May 9, 2026.

For the duration of the parade (from 10 a.m. Kyiv time on May 9, 2026), the territorial square of Red Square shall be excluded from the plan for the use of Ukrainian weapons.

Red Square:

55.754413 37.617733
55.755205 37.619181
55.753351 37.622854
55.752504 37.621538

2. This Decree shall enter into force on the date of its signing.

President of Ukraine V. ZELENSKYY
May 8, 2026
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I would have to wonder if the Ukrainians sending drones all over Russia is beginning to take its toll...

If we don't have a team in Ukraine taking copious notes on every drone warfare tactic they are using, we are completely being the stupids.
 
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