Russia Invades Ukraine XVI

[crimsonaudio]

Not posting the link as the video is somewhat grizzly...

BREAKING: Nearly 100 Russian soldiers killed. The Ukrainian Army has obliterated a Russian military column of 12 trucks bringing infantry reinforcements to the Russian Kursk region in an attempt to stop the Ukrainian invasion. They were ambushed in the Rylsky district.

 

[Bodhisattva]

Geez. Putin just needs to come out and say, "We've ended the Nazi threat in Ukraine. We have won, so now we will leave."

 

[Go Bama]

Not posting the link as the video is somewhat grizzly...

BREAKING: Nearly 100 Russian soldiers killed. The Ukrainian Army has obliterated a Russian military column of 12 trucks bringing infantry reinforcements to the Russian Kursk region in an attempt to stop the Ukrainian invasion. They were ambushed in the Rylsky district.

Polskie Radio has announced Russia has declared a state of national emergency. Cannot link because this article probably has the same grizzly video showing a lot of dead Russian soldiers in trucks.

 

[Tidewater]

Polskie Radio has announced Russia has declared a state of national emergency. Cannot link because this article probably has the same grizzly video showing a lot of dead Russian soldiers in trucks.

Hard luck Russian soldiers realizing how hard luck can be.
Brits would call that a "shoeing."
Alabamians would call it a "country boy butt whoopin'."

Ambush is a devastating tactic if you can guess which path the other side will be using.

 

[AUDub]

The videos are on twitter and yeah, that’s a lot of bodies and busted materiel.

 

[crimsonaudio]

BREAKING: The Ukrainian Army has crossed into the Russian Belgorod region too. The 252nd Battalion has taken control of the village of Poroz, sending a message to the world.

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1822178777297777143

 

[TIDE-HSV]

If they concentrate in Kursk or Belgorad, look for Putin to attempt a classic Kesselschlacht maneuver

 

[Padreruf]

If they concentrate in Kursk or Belgorad, look for Putin to attempt a classic Kesselschlacht maneuver

You could have said that Putin would try to confront and surround them...I wouldn't have had to go to google to understand Kesselschlact!!!

 

[TIDE-HSV]

You could have said that Putin would try to confront and surround them...I wouldn't have had to go to google to understand Kesselschlact!!!

Well, it's an old battlefield term which had great importance, as used by the Soviets against the retreating Germans. There are two, well at least two, ways to find yourself trapped like that. In the case of the Germans, it was Hitler's command to stand at all costs to the last man, allowing a pincer movement to surround them. In this case, if the Ukrainians don't have enough flank support, and it's hard to see how they could, their salient risks being cut off in Russia...

 

[Jon]

BBC with a few more details

Ukraine troops now up to 30km inside Russia's Kursk region, Moscow says

Russia's defence ministry said it had engaged in fighting near two villages, some 25-30km inside Russia.

www.bbc.com

 

[Tidewater]

BBC with a few more details

Ukraine troops now up to 30km inside Russia's Kursk region, Moscow says

Russia's defence ministry said it had engaged in fighting near two villages, some 25-30km inside Russia.

www.bbc.com

This is akin to poking a man in his gonads (action). Sure to get a reaction (sending reinforcements to stop the penetration). The ambush of those reinforcement while en route to the penetration is the counteraction. Pretty standard in wargaming and very well-played by the Ukrainians.
At the strategic level, however, it is hard to see how this is more than an embarrassment to Putin, unless the Ukrainians go a lot father and on a wider front (which Earle was alluding to).
30 clicks is sort of a "meh" operation.

 

[Tidewater]

You could have said that Putin would try to confront and surround them...I wouldn't have had to go to google to understand Kesselschlact!!!

A couple of great examples:
Operation Uranus (Stalingrad)

Korsun Pocket Jan-Feb 1944.

These are before Hitler got really stupid and ordered certain "fortress-cities" to be held to the last man. The Soviets promptly went around them, and, once the German forces inside were cut off from supplied and reinforcements, starved and squeezed them out of existence. That made it a lot easier.

 

[JDCrimson]

If they go all the way to Kursk, does it change things? If they can establish a corridor to attack Russia from the rear avoiding all the established trench defenses.

This is akin to poking a man in his gonads (action). Sure to get a reaction (sending reinforcements to stop the penetration). The ambush of those reinforcement while en route to the penetration is the counteraction. Pretty standard in wargaming and very well-played by the Ukrainians.
At the strategic level, however, it is hard to see how this is more than an embarrassment to Putin, unless the Ukrainians go a lot father and on a wider front (which Earle was alluding to).
30 clicks is sort of a "meh" operation.

 

[Tidewater]

It might (a little), but only if the Ukrtainians can hold it long term. Supplying Russian armies in Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts is done by rail.

Here is a map of the major lines. People ususally have no reall idea just how enormous Russia is. It is eleven(!) time zones wide.
I think that Kursk is at the junction at point of the red arrow.
As you can see, Kursk won't matter unless they then continue on and take Voronezh and the rail junction a few hundred kilometers further northeast, in other words, really, really deep into Russia, which is clearly beyond Ukrainian resources.
Kursk has great emotional impact as the place the Red Army threw back the final major Nazi offensive in 1943, so take Kursk and it will get the attention of the Russian people, at least emotionally.

 

[crimsonaudio]

BREAKING: A swarm of Ukrainian drones is striking Moscow and an airfield near it

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1822761771909718404

 

[Padreruf]

Seems like the Ukrainians are going all in at this juncture...I hope they know more about Russsian strength and weaknesses than seems apparent to us.

 

[Tidewater]

Seems like the Ukrainians are going all in at this juncture...I hope they know more about Russsian strength and weaknesses than seems apparent to us.

I've said before, Russia is, like the Confederacy was in the late Civil War, "hollow."
When Hood took the Confederate Army of Tennessee back to Tennessee and left Sherman on his own, poke through the crust (like Sherman did in his March to the Sea), and there is little force there to resist.

Russia is much the same. They know where they are going to attack and bulk up forces in that viciniity. When the Ukrainians attack Russia elsewhere, (e.g. Kursk), there is no one to resist.
The Russians will shift significant forces to the site of the incursions and push them back. That was probably the strategic reason for the Ukrainian attack in the first place: draw off Russian troops from the zones where the Russians are attacking.
That said, if, like Prigozhin's "drive on Moscow" never found resistance, the Ukrainians might go further, a lot further, to embarrass Putin. I do not think they will risk significant forces on this, because it will be all penetration with no flank protection.

 

[AUDub]

Well, it's an old battlefield term which had great importance, as used by the Soviets against the retreating Germans. There are two, well at least two, ways to find yourself trapped like that. In the case of the Germans, it was Hitler's command to stand at all costs to the last man, allowing a pincer movement to surround them. In this case, if the Ukrainians don't have enough flank support, and it's hard to see how they could, their salient risks being cut off in Russia...

Geography currently favors the Ukrainians provided they don’t overextend. Roads and bridges capable of the loads required for meaningful materiel don’t grow on trees.

 

[JDCrimson]

This seems like a suicide mission to me. These soldiers wont be allowed to retreat imo.

Does make you wonder if they will recruit Anti-Putinists along the way to increase their numbers?

 

[TIDE-HSV]

I've said before, Russia is, like the Confederacy was in the late Civil War, "hollow."
When Hood took the Confederate Army of Tennessee back to Tennessee and left Sherman on his own, poke through the crust (like Sherman did in his March to the Sea), and there is little force there to resist.

Russia is much the same. They know where they are going to attack and bulk up forces in that viciniity. When the Ukrainians attack Russia elsewhere, (e.g. Kursk), there is no one to resist.
The Russians will shift significant forces to the site of the incursions and push them back. That was probably the strategic reason for the Ukrainian attack in the first place: draw off Russian troops from the zones where the Russians are attacking.
That said, if, like Prigozhin's "drive on Moscow" never found resistance, the Ukrainians might go further, a lot further, to embarrass Putin. I do not think they will risk significant forces on this, because it will be all penetration with no flank protection.

Yep. My point...