Russia Invades Ukraine XVII
- Thread starter crimsonaudio
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Fox and Friends Host Brian Kilmeade:
Can we all remember @KremlinRussia_E is the bad guy- they invaded - they kidnap kids - Whatever happens - Ukraine can not lose - Eastern Europe will be next
I believe Moldova would be next (because Moldova is not a NATO member and is an economic and political basket case) and there the Russians would take a strategic pause for the rest of Putin''s life because beyond that is NATO territory.
I hope you're right.
By the time Putin's dead, the Russian demographic situation may have deteriorated to the point that they can't conduct a land-based invasion.
Take the last numbers the Russians reported (understanding they're almost certainly unreliably rosy because Russia lies about all their numbers). Then subtract the KIAs in Ukraine and the mass exodus of young males to avoid the draft, and we know the situation is terminal -- especially in the 18 - 34 age group that actually fights in wars. We just don't know the death date.
Then take into account that they haven't even been attempting to gather population data for some time now. So while they know their demographics are bad, it's possible that even the Russians themselves don't know the real numbers.
Post-Putin, to my mind, that means they would have to use nukes (maybe....if they still have a reliable nuclear arsenal) or another country's troops.
In 2019, the Russian Federation lost 1 million people (net emigration, deaths in excess of births). I million in one year. That's a hunk of people.
Now, Russia not invading any further will not mean Russia will not screw around with its neighbors, but it will be in the "hybrid realm": propaganda, criminal gangs, cyberattacks, subversion, espionage, targeted killings, etc. That is more manageable for the Europeans. It reduces the level violence down to something the Europeans can handle.
Only tangentially related to Ukraine, I had a interesting conversation yesterday with a retired Air Force colonel who was in the intel / historian side during the Viet Nam / Cold War era.
After the wall fell, there was a gathering of a bunch of military and spy agency historians from the former Warsaw Pact countries and the NATO countries. My friend was talking to a peer from the Polish Air Force.
My friend told the Pole that the US was always highly respectful of and concerned about Polish Air Defense. The problem was that, if it ever got to a shooting war with Russia, NATO would have to overfly Poland to get to Russia. The NATO countries' intelligence services and brass were worried about sustaining heavy losses on the way to Russia.
The Pole responded that the west needn't have worried at all. The Poles have such an abiding and deep-seated hatred of the Russians that he said they would have turned the air defenses on the Soviets.
I don't know if the Pole knew what he was talking about, or was just trying to strut on the newly-dug grave of the Soviet Union, or was simply stating fact. Regardless, I thought the possibility was fascinating.
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I think that weighed heavily on the Soviet calculus when considering an invasion of Western Europe. The Poles were probably the least reliable, but Czechoslovakians had been crushed by the Soviets as well (1968) and the Hungarians (1956). Who knows how hard these soldiers would fight for the USSR, or whether they would fight at all.
The Bulgarians were probably the most reliable Soviet allies in Eastern Europe (for cultural and ihstorical reasons), but their capabilities were suspect. The East Germans were probably the most capable and probably reliable (because culturally, "you just follow orders").
I did not have "pointing to Brian Kilmeade for honest talk" on my bingo card, but here we are.
Those are baby steps, but baby steps in the right direction.
Let's see how the Russians react.
Zelensky is correct about the Javelins.
The it is much more significant to move US military aid from zero Javelins to one Javelin than it is to move from one Javelin to 5,000 Javelins.
There is a mountain of legal hurdles US military assistance must clear (international military sales, humanitarian law, foreign disclosures, etc. Once you have moved one Javelin, then increasing that to 5,000 is just logistics.
Hopefully for Ukraine, Russia responds favorably and serious talks resume, ending with a long-term peace deal. Then rebuilding Ukraine can begin.
I would invite the attention of the board to the web site DeepStateMaps.
It gives you the ability to examine the changes to the front over time.
I would invite particularly the attention of the front to the Ukrainian city of Karakhove and Vukhlodar. Look at where the front line was on March 4, 2024 and where it is today.
The need is absolutely urgent.
It gives you the ability to examine the changes to the front over time.
I would invite particularly the attention of the front to the Ukrainian city of Karakhove and Vukhlodar. Look at where the front line was on March 4, 2024 and where it is today.
The need is absolutely urgent.
What strikes me about this is the analogy with the American Civil War.
Provinces seek independence from the imperial center. The imperial center refuses to let the provinces go. The imperial soldiers in some cases behaved very badly in violation of the war of war, and look at civilians as scum, that "the people must be left nothing but their eyes to weep with after the war."
If the Brits had offered to negotiate a ceasefire in the summer of 1864, would the Confederates have agreed?
Provinces seek independence from the imperial center. The imperial center refuses to let the provinces go. The imperial soldiers in some cases behaved very badly in violation of the war of war, and look at civilians as scum, that "the people must be left nothing but their eyes to weep with after the war."
If the Brits had offered to negotiate a ceasefire in the summer of 1864, would the Confederates have agreed?
Cutting off Ukraine from intelligence & weapons at this time, especially *defensive* systems like air defense interceptors, is a dangerous sign of meekness to Russia. No amount of intellectual gymnastics can craft a justification for this decision.
Zelenskyy publicly committed to peace talks & even suggested a limited ceasefire. Meanwhile, all the pressure remains on Kyiv while Moscow’s interests are accommodated. This is very weak.
In the context of America First, this is not even about Ukraine—but what’s in America’s national interests. China is watching closely and the Kremlin cannot believe its luck.
Unless it changes tactics, the Trump Admin is about to make a geo-political mistake that will be on par with Biden’s Afghanistan debacle. Everyone can see it coming.
I wish it would be the size of Biden’s mishandling of Afghanistan. I fear it could be far greater.
Zelensky met with the Democratic congressional leaders before the Oval Office debacle. I am curious what they had to say. If they advised him to be as belligerent with Trump as possible in front of the cameras, to force Trump to show what an bad person he is, then that advice might end up being good for the Democrats and very bad for Ukraine.
French President Emmanuel Macron, in an address to the nation, REJECTED a ceasefire in Ukraine He declared that peace in Europe is only possible with a weakened Russia, calling the country a direct threat to France and the continent.
A lot of people like spending ... as long as it is someone else's money.
A lot of people like fighting ... as long as it is someone else's blood.
He's French, he will end up surrendering.
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