JessN: Texas A&M preview: Vegas may have this one wrong

[TideEngineer08]

red was the one still standing at the end of the movie

And crimson is much closer to red than maroon is. I think we're on to something here..

 

[BamaMoon]

I'm somewhere between cautiously pessemistic and guardedly hopeful on this one.

Our trend of 3 straight sub-par games (including UF) is disturbing. Our offense has been figured out and until BS and LK and company show us something different it makes me doubt we can win a shootout right now.

Jess is not a sunshine pumper and when he picks against us it is obvious that we should be concerned.

Then, on the other hand, with us being at home, having played bad for 3 straight games with stupid turnovers, penalties and mistakes the optimistic side of me thinks we have to break through at some point and play a complete, clean game.

Hoping for the latter!!!

 

[stlimprov]

It's easy to imagine this one swinging wildly either way, based on the turnover issues both teams have shown.

 

[CajunCrimson]

It's easy to imagine this one swinging wildly either way, based on the turnover issues both teams have shown.

We've lost 1 regular season game in the Saban area by more than 10 points (from what I could find) -- South Carolina -- 2010

We've lost 6 regular season games since 2007 -- and only one by more than 10?

This won't swing wildly toward A&M.....you can bank on that. We don't lose games by more than 1 score......(well once every 6 years.....) -- this isn't the team to do it.

It's either a nailbiter or a Bama Blowout --

 

[BamaDynasty]

I keep going back to Johnny Football and Mike Evans. Like Cajun Crimson said, those two guys pretty much single handedly beat us. The current group of Aggies, while good are not great like those two CFB players. I see a 10-14 point win a sa great bet.

 

[runtheoption22]

how many of Hill's 400 yards against OM were in garbage time?

 

[CajunCrimson]

I love Jess' previews -- but he is definitely NOT a sunshine pumper. I also know he knows us -- probably better than anyone else I read....

But, when we look at games like this, we always look at "us" -- but A&M has lost 2 games in a row by 17 and 15 after beating Ark in OT (should have lost that one) -- so, 3 weeks ago, something happened to their team. Not sure if it was simply they were doing it with Smoke and Mirrors -- or if they have to get a team down early and then just pour it on -- or what....but that team has lost 2 in a row, should be 3..... and we are playing at home after they've had 2 bad losses -- and I'm sure that they are pretty dog tired at this point.

3 tough games in a row can take a mental toll on you - and now you have to go into TTown and pull out a win?

I just don't see that happening....regardless of how the matchups look on paper. They can't feel confident -- and the key to beating Bama the last few years has everything to do with confidence.....

 

[ccc2259]

Johnny Football is in Cleveland. Without him the last two games ain't close...

I get the breakdowns and all. We saw the fire at the end of the Arkansas game. At some point that fire begins to rage. I think we see more concentration, less mistakes, and we control the ball for 40+ minutes. If we get pressure from the front 4, it's not even close

I like the way you think!

 

[CajunCrimson]

how many of Hill's 400 yards against OM were in garbage time?

the last TD came on the last play of the game.....not sure how many of his yards were in the 4th quarter

 

[bamanix]

A&M is not the team of 2012, 2013. but, unfortunately, we are not either. as a fan I have watched a confused off line, a rattled qb, tight ends that don't block on offense. on defense I have watched lately a excellent def line with depth, and a good linebacking corp against a pro style run game. poor coverage by linebackers, and half the secondary against a average qb. coaches need to come up with a answer in one week. hope they do, and maybe the second half of the season will interesting.

 

[RTR91]

how many of Hill's 400 yards against OM were in garbage time?

200 of his 401 came in the fourth quarter alone. I didn't even calculate the third quarter. He had 177 yards in the fourth quarter against Arkansas.

If we get them down early, I think we can drop back in zone and get a few INTs.

I love Jess' previews -- but he is definitely NOT a sunshine pumper. I also know he knows us -- probably better than anyone else I read....

But, when we look at games like this, we always look at "us" -- but A&M has lost 2 games in a row by 17 and 15 after beating Ark in OT (should have lost that one) -- so, 3 weeks ago, something happened to their team. Not sure if it was simply they were doing it with Smoke and Mirrors -- or if they have to get a team down early and then just pour it on -- or what....but that team has lost 2 in a row, should be 3..... and we are playing at home after they've had 2 bad losses -- and I'm sure that they are pretty dog tired at this point.

3 tough games in a row can take a mental toll on you - and now you have to go into TTown and pull out a win?

I just don't see that happening....regardless of how the matchups look on paper. They can't feel confident -- and the key to beating Bama the last few years has everything to do with confidence.....

Not only should they be on a 3 game losing streak, they also just played their toughest opposition thus far. Their offense has stalled against MSU and Ole Miss, and the offense wasn't very spectacular against Arky.

I compared some stats from the teams and found this:

• In 7 games, TAMU has gotten 196 first downs (average of 28 per game) but allowed 144 to its opponents (20.57 average).
• In 6 games, Bama has gotten 146 first downs (24.333 average) while only allowing 89 (14.833 pg).
• While TAMU prefers quick passes, they've allowed 1.43 sacks per game. Bama's offense isn't as fast and has allowed 1 per game.
• As far as the defenses go, TAMU averages 3.14 sack per game. The defense got 8 against SMU, though. Alabama averages 2.17 per game.
• TAMU averages 6.29 penalties per game, and Bama averages 6.5. However, TAMU is penalized 59 yards per game compared to Bama's 49.
• TAMU's defense allows its opponents to score 22.6 points; Bama averages 33.2 points per game. TAMU scores 43.9 points; Bama only gives up 15.3 points per game.

Bama needs to cut the pre-snap penalties because the 49 yards per game doesn't show the fact a 3rd and 1 became 3rd and 6. If Bama does that, TAMU will have some issues stopping Bama's offense because that defense is still suspect.

Bama's DBs need to jam the WRs to get them off their routes and allow the DL to put pressure on Hill. Clearly, the TAMU OL isn't what Manziel had.

Last week, Ole Miss caused major confusion between Hill and the receivers. Herbie kept talking about TAMU's offense requiring the WRs and Hill to see the same coverage because the coverage dictates the routes in Sumlin's air raid. I don't want our scheme to be too complex this week and confuse our DBs, but the complex secondary might be the best thing for the young TAMU WRs and Hill.

Another intangible not mentioned by some - Bama is at home. We saw the entire team play better at home compared to the WVU, Ole Miss and Arky games.

 

[Al A Bama]

Coach Saban,

Please post this prediction in Alabama's locker room!

For some reason I'm feeling better about our chances of winning.

Guys, they are saying that you can't win in your own stadium. It's time to kick booty and take names later! Jess is calling you out! It's time to show what you are made of.

Don't let those Aggies come into your house and embarrass you! Give all you've got and let the chips fall where they may. Ain't no time for anxiety! It's booty kicking time! I personally know some Aggies making the drive to Tuscaloosa. Send those Aggie fans back home with SAD faces! Let those faces be sad for that 700+ mile drive.

Jess, I always like reading your post, but I hope you are wrong this weekend. If you are right, the players better get ready for the Weedeater or whatever that Independence Bowl is called in Shreveport.

 

[twofbyc]

I still think Evans>>>>>>Kennedy, and Manziel>>>>>Hill. Noil is the only one that worries me but he ain't tall. The rest of them, I just don't think they suddenly start catching the balls they have been dropping. And they (still) have no defense. How many points did Arky hang on them?
I also read somewhere earlier that SC has one of the worst defenses in the SEC.
I am just not buying the hype that A&M is "all that" with a sophomore qb starting this year for the first time, and praying I'm not proven wrong Saturday.

 

[UA90]

Pretty sure JessN has this one wrong. I respect your opinion, but if I were going to predict a home loss to stir up the natives, and show how impartial I am, I think I would have gone with Miss State or Auburn.

This A&M game won't be that close.

 

[selmaborntidefan]

Hey folks - you might ought to realize that even JessN HOPES he's wrong.

 

[bamacpa]

I've not said much about this game, and I hope I'm wrong, but I've got a bad feeling about this one.

Their passing attack , especially with Kennedy returning, makes me very nervous.

 

[GreatDanish]

Texas A&M's best defensive performance in the SEC: holding South Carolina and Arkansas to 28 points.
Alabama's WORST defensive performance in the SEC: allowing 23 to Ole Miss.

Our defense will keep us in this game. It's up to the offense to win the game. Here's a chance for Blake to really prove himself.

 

[B1GTide]

Hey folks - you might ought to realize that even JessN HOPES he's wrong.

I don't question his loyalty - just his pessimism.

 

[bamacpa]

The good news is my wife is attending the game, and she hasn't seen us lose in person in years. Well, regular season that is.

 

[Moro Creek]

It's not gloom and doom when you're being realistic in your assessment. I think Jess is spot on with his review and he is right much of the time. Thank goodness the game is won or lost on the field and not in print or at the betting tables.