It has been referenced frequently that HRC lost the election with her deplorables comment. Certainly didnt help insulting a voter bloc.
But I thought she lost the election the night I saw her stump in West Virginia where she literally said if you are in coal mining we are putting you out of business...
It would be polite to say this was a stupid remark, but that was sinister elitism on full display...
I think the "Deplorables" comment was a gaffe, but I think one problem in the overall analysis is there's this tendency for folks to try to reduce everything like we're in a movie or an hour-long TV show, they want to find that one moment that changes the outcome. And of course a CLOSE race like in 2016 gets the losing candidate more flack than when they get clobbered a la McGovern or Mondale (or even Dukakis). After all, more groups are prone to say "if you would have just done X" and can comfort themselves that the candidate is to blame and not their bad advice.
I vaguely recall the instance you're talking about, but Hillary wasn't going to win WVA anyway, and she might have been throwing a bone to the more extreme environmentalist voters ("hey, coal is going away"). And of course it IS going away, but
I'll agree with you her approach to that might not have been the best. And there's a way to say those things that she didn't possess the way Obama did or even her husband.
Everyone nowadays is looking for the single moment - the "there you go again" comment by Reagan in the debate, Dukakis getting in the tank, Daddy Bush looking at his watch, Gore tsk tsking his way through a debate, being "for the war before I was against it", the fundamentals of the economy being sound, the 47% mark on tape.....those are all important, but I think the idea that in ANY of those cases (much less all of them) the idea that that was the magic moment that turned the winner into the loser is shallow, lazy, and has more in common with TV shows than everyday reality.
Let's take Dukakis in the tank, which has become one of the seminal moments in American politics. But Dukakis rode in the tank on September 13. A CBS/NYT poll published September 14 (and thus from days earlier) found Bush leading, 47-39. That same day a Gallup Poll showed Bush leading, 49-41. An LA Times poll the same day showed Bush and Dukakis tied at 47 in California.
Fast forward to Election Day on November 8:
- Bush wins nationally by 7.72 (ahead by 8 in two polls on September 14)
- Bush wins California by 3.57 (51-47)
Now, I'm not saying the tank didn't hurt Dukakis or reinforce a negative image of him; I'm saying the idea that Dukakis would have won the election without hopping in the tank is poppycock. In the same article from which I culled the poll numbers, it states that on that day, Dukakis was TRAILING in EVERY IMPORTANT STATE except New York. And guess what? He LOST every important state except New York (unless one includes Wisconsin).
No matter what anyone wants to believe, there is no one single moment that flips a Presidential race from win to lose. There are individual moments that hurt you and the biggest thing hurting Dukakis - conceded both by his consultants and the GOP ones - was losing every night on the evening news. There are moments where "I remember where I was when that happened," yes. And they can add up.
It's like Gary Danielson, whom I consider to be a GOOD analyst, constantly reducing beating Alabama to "Alabama has trouble with RPO quarterbacks" and citing the same few examples of Tim Tebow (when Florida was the better team), Cam Newton (Auburn averaged 41 ppg in 2010, Alabama held him to 28), Johnny Manziel (held 15 points below his average)...and ignoring the actual reasonS Alabama lost those games (often turnovers, stupid penalties, dumb luck, and stupid playcalling among other things).