Question: The top 12 schools in wins all-time, how often should they make the playoffs in a 10-year period?

[saturdaysarebet]

The top 12 schools in wins all-time, how often should they make the playoffs in a 10-year period? Wha's an acceptable/expected number of those schools? 10 out of 10? 9 out of 10? 8 out of 10? Etc.

Those schools are:
Michigan
Alabama
Ohio State
Texas
Notre Dame
Oklahoma
Penn State
Nebraska
Georgia
Tennessee
USC
LSU

 

[Slowpoke Catracho]

According to AI:

Calculations for Each Team
Let's calculate the expected appearances:

1. Michigan: 73.0851×120≈10.3\frac{73.0}{851} \times 120 \approx 10.385173.0×120≈10.3
2. Alabama: 73.1851×120≈10.3\frac{73.1}{851} \times 120 \approx 10.385173.1×120≈10.3
3. Ohio State: 73.2851×120≈10.3\frac{73.2}{851} \times 120 \approx 10.385173.2×120≈10.3
4. Texas: 70.1851×120≈9.9\frac{70.1}{851} \times 120 \approx 9.985170.1×120≈9.9
5. Notre Dame: 72.6851×120≈10.2\frac{72.6}{851} \times 120 \approx 10.285172.6×120≈10.2
6. Oklahoma: 72.7851×120≈10.2\frac{72.7}{851} \times 120 \approx 10.285172.7×120≈10.2
7. Penn State: 68.2851×120≈9.6\frac{68.2}{851} \times 120 \approx 9.685168.2×120≈9.6
8. Nebraska: 68.4851×120≈9.6\frac{68.4}{851} \times 120 \approx 9.685168.4×120≈9.6
9. Georgia: 67.9851×120≈9.6\frac{67.9}{851} \times 120 \approx 9.685167.9×120≈9.6
10. Tennessee: 67.6851×120≈9.5\frac{67.6}{851} \times 120 \approx 9.585167.6×120≈9.5
11. USC: 69.2851×120≈9.8\frac{69.2}{851} \times 120 \approx 9.885169.2×120≈9.8
12. LSU: 65.8851×120≈9.3\frac{65.8}{851} \times 120 \approx 9.385165.8×120≈9.3

Estimated Playoff Appearances over 10 Years
Based on this formula, we find that most teams with winning percentages in the range of 67-73% can be expected to make the 12-team playoffs between 9 to 10 times over a decade. The slight variations are due to the differences in historical winning percentage

 

[Bama_N_Va]

Hopefully the California legislature will pass a law that teams with more than 15% orange on uniforms are only eligible every 5th leap year!

 

[4Q Basket Case]

To answer the OP question: As many times as they earn it.

 

[Tidewater]

 

[Perrett4Bama]

Six SEC schools, five Big10 schools and one "should be a Big 10 school" as the top twelve of all time. People who think these two conferences are not the ones driving the bus are just crazy.

 

[Redwood Forrest]

As the perennial Top Independent Notre Dame should get an automatic bye.

 

[Windsortide]

The vast majority of the time.

 

[BamaFossil]

If the playing field were still relatively level, I'd say 7 or 8 out of 10. But NIL makes it unlevel. The schools with serious money boosters (Texas; ND; OSU; Mich.; Harvard, Yale, etc.) should move into the 9 or 10 outta' 10 category. The rest of us drop a bit.

 

[saturdaysarebet]

As the perennial Top Independent Notre Dame should get an automatic bye.

Their fans would agree with you.