Thoughts on the Heisman Race....

[BamaHoosier]

I’d guess that if the trophy were awarded right now, it would be Trask’s to lose. The biggest differentiator some voters will point to is that Mac has put up his numbers with potentially 5-6 1st rd picks on offense and a surging defense behind him. Whereas outside of Pitts, Trask has put up similar numbers without throwing to any household names, very little run support, and a faulty defense. I think the talent around Mac will be held against him to a degree.

Another thing, there’s also a good chance Lawrence gets a bunch of sympathy votes and the time he missed isn’t held against him. Because of his outspokenness when the season was in jeopardy, and with the season being so weird, I could see some voting it as a lifetime achievement award instead of the season’s best player.

Mac isn’t out of the hunt and will definitely be a finalist. However I have this sneaky suspicion he’ll be fighting an uphill battle to win unless he sets some absurd records the rest of the way.

 

[81usaf92]

If Mac had 2 extra games then only one of Tua’s records at Alabama would stand after this year at the pace he is on.

 

[KrAzY3]

I really feel like a likely Alabama vs. Florida game will decide it.

If either Trask or Mac is dominant in that game it will really change things. For instance if Mac outperforms Trask and he has the undefeated team while Florida sinks to two losses that could really solidify Mac's case for Heisman. To give an example, had the Oklahoma vs. Alabama playoff game been before the Heisman vote, I think Tua wins.

This game will really have the spotlight on it, and one QB clearly outperforming the other will go a long way. The part where Lawrence ends up looking really good is both QBs struggle or if they both kind of play to a draw. If one doesn't look clearly better than the other, then that splits the vote a bit and Lawrence can take advantage of that.

A lot can happen between now and then, but as of right now that's the game that has the most control of the outcome.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

My guess - Lawrence will win it. He will get a ton of yards and TD throws as Dabo tries to push him to the top.

Going into championship weekend it will appear to be a 3 horse race with some marquee matchups - Lawrence vs. Book and Mac vs. Trask.

If ND wins, Mac wins the Heisman by defeating Trask/Florida.

If Clemson wins then Lawrence wins the Heisman just because Sunshine, etc.

Florida isn't beating Alabama, so Trask is not winning the Heisman.

Hmm. Since the CCG have been pushed back, has the Heisman Voting been pushed back as well?

 

[colbysullivan]

Tua lost it vs Georgia and Locksley’s inability to correct his flaws. Murray was consistent and really didn’t lose pace. While I think Tua deserved it more, I don’t categorize that one as being robbed as much as being unable to seal the deal.

If we are talking about robbed then Watson was far more robbed by Lamar winning it than Tua was. Mac has a clear path and it’s out dueling Trask, but he really needs his defense to make the statement as well.

Tua is the most efficient QB in the history of college football, against SEC defenses. Murray played against high school teams. Respectfully, you’ll never convince me Tua wasn’t robbed.

 

[NoNC4Tubs]

I’d guess that if the trophy were awarded right now, it would be Trask’s to lose. The biggest differentiator some voters will point to is that Mac has put up his numbers with potentially 5-6 1st rd picks on offense and a surging defense behind him. Whereas outside of Pitts, Trask has put up similar numbers without throwing to any household names, very little run support, and a faulty defense. I think the talent around Mac will be held against him to a degree.

Another thing, there’s also a good chance Lawrence gets a bunch of sympathy votes and the time he missed isn’t held against him. Because of his outspokenness when the season was in jeopardy, and with the season being so weird, I could see some voting it as a lifetime achievement award instead of the season’s best player.

Mac isn’t out of the hunt and will definitely be a finalist. However I have this sneaky suspicion he’ll be fighting an uphill battle to win unless he sets some absurd records the rest of the way.

I disagree! I don't think Florida's Schedule stacks up better than Alabama's...

 

[B1GTide]

Hmm. Since the CCG have been pushed back, has the Heisman Voting been pushed back as well?

Yes - until after the conference championship games

 

[81usaf92]

Tua is the most efficient QB in the history of college football, against SEC defenses. Murray played against high school teams. Respectfully, you’ll never convince me Tua wasn’t robbed.

Well if he didn’t have a horrible game vs Georgia then he walks away with the award.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Well if you don’t have a horrible game vs Georgia then he walks away with the award.

You’re both right. He deserved it but he left the door open for interpretation with the poor showing against Georgia. The sports media voting on this award is not capable of nuanced thought.

They would not consider the fact that Tua was injured on the first drive of the game. The fact he was turning things around before he was ultimately knocked out in the fourth quarter.

They only thing they saw was Tua’s stat line, his fourth quarter injury and Jalen’s subsequent comeback effort which gave them the ammo they needed to declare Tua wasn’t worthy because of the talent surrounding him (I.e. Jalen would have produced the same results because look how he performed against Georgia).

The media wanted to give it to Murray. They got their out when the Georgia game happened.

 

[81usaf92]

You’re both right. He deserved it but he left the door open for interpretation with the poor showing against Georgia. The sports media voting on this award is not capable of nuanced thought.

They would not consider the fact that Tua was injured on the first drive of the game. The fact he was turning things around before he was ultimately knocked out in the fourth quarter.

They only thing they saw was Tua’s stat line, his fourth quarter injury and Jalen’s subsequent comeback effort which gave them the ammo they needed to declare Tua wasn’t worthy because of the talent surrounding him (I.e. Jalen would have produced the same results because look how he performed against Georgia).

The media wanted to give it to Murray. They got their out when the Georgia game happened.

Even before he got hurt Tua was forcing balls against a defense with a pulse. Locksley really encouraged very bad habits and it ultimately costed him the Heisman and National championship.

 

[BAMAVILLE]

I wonder who some of the former Heisman winners will vote for.

I know who 2 of them will vote for

 

[Isaiah 63:1]

Anyone even casually glancing at QBR should have a hard time voting anyone but Mac first, for now. The fact that he’s allegedly trailing Trask and that Lawrence is within striking distance of them both is testament to how little research the aggregate Heisman electorate actually does...

 

[B1GTide]

Anyone even casually glancing at QBR should have a hard time voting anyone but Mac first, for now. The fact that he’s allegedly trailing Trask and that Lawrence is within striking distance of them both is testament to how little research the aggregate Heisman electorate actually does...

Trask has more passing yards and far more TD passes while throwing almost no INTs. Mac is throwing a much higher pass completion percentage, which is what is producing the higher QBR. A legitimate argument could be made for both. Mac needs to beat him head to head to put that to rest.

 

[TideEngineer08]

Even before he got hurt Tua was forcing balls against a defense with a pulse. Locksley really encouraged very bad habits and it ultimately costed him the Heisman and National championship.

I’m not arguing that point. Back to the media... they weren’t seeing that. The majority of them anyway. They don’t care about nuance like that. They only see stats. And Tua’s were fantastic even if football minds could see the issues coming down the road against legit defenses.

 

[JustNeedMe81]

Justin Fields: He's out: Is Justin Fields officially out of the Heisman race? (247sports.com) Game being canceled hurt his cance.
Trevor Lawerence:
Race is between Trask and Jones: Heisman Watch - Kyle Trask and Mac Jones battle for the top spot (espn.com)

Mac is closing in on Trask: Heisman Odds After Week 13: Mac Jones Closing Gap on Kyle Trask (sportsbettingdime.com)

In another word: Expect Trask and Jones to battle it out for SEC Championship and Heisman at the same time.

Lawerence simply doesn't have a chance, but could make it close.

 

[BamaHoosier]

Another thing about this year's award. Every year before the presentation, the broadcasting crew will break down the impact of regional bias on the vote. I feel like it's actually pretty rare though that regional bias makes that big of a difference. I'm sure there are examples of it happening, but I can't think of a recent year where a clear cut candidate has been upset because of votes lost to someone else in their region. (I could be way off, that's just off the cuff and having done no research)

I wonder though if there is a chance of that happening this year since all 3 of the top candidates are coming from the southeast? If the SE votes are split pretty evenly amongst Jones/Trask/Lawrence, is it possible the rest of the country votes one way or the other having potentially watched less of any of them?

Usually that concept is way over-hyped as a technique to build drama, but I'm actually curious to see if that comes into play at all.

 

[Bazza]

Three observations.....

1. I love the fact that both Mac and Trask worked their tails off as backups while awaiting their turn and never giving up nor transferring.

2. Both are good kids. Strong moral compass. The Heisman gets a little redemption with either young man as winner.

3. Assuming Bama and Florida play in Atlanta....how cool will it be for the Heisman race to be part of the backstory of this game?

As Gator alum.....I'm biased and am pulling for Trask.

But if Mac wins it....he will deserve it, I'm sure...as he's put on an absolute clinic this year!

 

[bamaga]

NYC is a shell right now, anyways.

They should move the presentation to Miami . A lot New Yorkers there , they could have the presentation at an outdoor venue to mitigate COVID endangerment. , etc. of course, If that were the case, I would hope Mac would bow out for the team!

 

[AlistarWills]

(Blue font) Spencer Rattler will win the HeisTman. Rattler IS the QB at Oklahoma. (/endBluefont)

In all seriousness, the media had Sunshine picked before the season started and I believe, like so many other things the media does, they will find a way to try and sell that thought to make themselves right.
I hope that Fields gets no shot at the playoffs and is left out in the cold when it comes to the Heisman. If for nothing else than how he left UGA on charges of racism at the school yet his sister had no problem staying.

 

[crimsonaudio]

Locksley really encouraged very bad habits and it ultimately costed him the Heisman and National championship.

Locks did some good things while he was here, but I'll take Sark every day of the week and twice on Saturdays.