Tide opens as 3pt favorite over Auburn
- Thread starter 4thGenBamaGrad
- Start date
I did not know that...makes sense now. Course I imagine this could fluctuate quite a bit during this week.
No flame here, BUT does it really matter??
will it effect the outcome of the game either way??
the game must be play and settle on the field of play. PERIOD!!
I think that there's a trend that the oddsmakers see that is similar to last year.
Last year, we slumped mid-season and then began hitting on all cylinders through November. The main reason we didn't lose any games last year was our stellar defense and a healthy Ingram taking the team on his back during the slump.
This season, our defense went through growing pains, Ingram didn't seem to be healthy and we had some injuries on our offensive line. Over the last two games, however, there is definite improvement across the board (evident even against a weak opponent like G.S.). Trent Richardson should be back this game as well.
I think that the oddsmakers believe that this trend indicates that we have improved enough to be basically even with Auburn in this game. Even though Auburn is very good on offense, their defense is pretty average. We should be, outside of LSU, the best defense they've faced. LSU gave up a ton of yards, but only 24 points. We give up, on average, 4ppg (12.8 vs 16.5) less than LSU. Auburn gives up 25 ppg and we average scoring 35.2ppg.
If you take the simplest form of estimation and meet in the middle on the numbers:
Alabama gives up 12.8 ppg while Auburn scores 42.8 ppg: spread is 30 ppg, median is 27.8 points for AU.
Auburn gives up 24.9 ppg while Alabama scores 35.2 ppg: spread is 10.3 ppg, median is 30.05 points for UA.
Add the 3 point home advantage and you get either Bama 33, Auburn 28 or Bama 30, Auburn 25. I'll take either one.
Last year, we slumped mid-season and then began hitting on all cylinders through November. The main reason we didn't lose any games last year was our stellar defense and a healthy Ingram taking the team on his back during the slump.
This season, our defense went through growing pains, Ingram didn't seem to be healthy and we had some injuries on our offensive line. Over the last two games, however, there is definite improvement across the board (evident even against a weak opponent like G.S.). Trent Richardson should be back this game as well.
I think that the oddsmakers believe that this trend indicates that we have improved enough to be basically even with Auburn in this game. Even though Auburn is very good on offense, their defense is pretty average. We should be, outside of LSU, the best defense they've faced. LSU gave up a ton of yards, but only 24 points. We give up, on average, 4ppg (12.8 vs 16.5) less than LSU. Auburn gives up 25 ppg and we average scoring 35.2ppg.
If you take the simplest form of estimation and meet in the middle on the numbers:
Alabama gives up 12.8 ppg while Auburn scores 42.8 ppg: spread is 30 ppg, median is 27.8 points for AU.
Auburn gives up 24.9 ppg while Alabama scores 35.2 ppg: spread is 10.3 ppg, median is 30.05 points for UA.
Add the 3 point home advantage and you get either Bama 33, Auburn 28 or Bama 30, Auburn 25. I'll take either one.
This is what my bookie used to call a "sucker bet".
The line will probably move to as much as Bama minus five or six before the game and bettors will start loading up on Auburn.
Especially those bettors who are say in Vegas and California who will simply think.."How can they be favored?"..
Think about it. Auburn is the OBVIOUS play here.....and that's how Vegas gets rich.
Sip
The line will probably move to as much as Bama minus five or six before the game and bettors will start loading up on Auburn.
Especially those bettors who are say in Vegas and California who will simply think.."How can they be favored?"..
Think about it. Auburn is the OBVIOUS play here.....and that's how Vegas gets rich.
Sip
If the bettors load up on Bama at 3 you will see the points drop. If they are loading up on Aubarn then then vegas will make us a bigger favorite. There is a book thats a few years old about betting on CFB and the big time gamblers from the state are mainly Bama fans. Making us the favorite over a undefeated team has me scratching my head. What do they know we dont. And if the line moves to 6 or 7 what does that mean?
Someone might have pointed it out, but this reminds me of the Alabama-Florida line from 2008. When it came out as Florida -10, I thought it was totally ridiculous. Alabama was undefeated and Florida had a loss, yet we were a big underdog. We lost by 11.
Given Auburn's mighty struggles on the road this year, I don't see how this line is out of whack. This same team lost by 3 at MSU and Kentucky. Throw in the distractions of the sCam controversy, the fact that it's Saban in a big game, and that we, despite our record, have better athletes on the field, and I think this line is right.
How the game turns out is its own story, but -3 sounds right to me.
Given Auburn's mighty struggles on the road this year, I don't see how this line is out of whack. This same team lost by 3 at MSU and Kentucky. Throw in the distractions of the sCam controversy, the fact that it's Saban in a big game, and that we, despite our record, have better athletes on the field, and I think this line is right.
How the game turns out is its own story, but -3 sounds right to me.
It's all about getting the money to move on both sides. Vegas knows what it is doing even if the SEC and the NCAA don't.
Auburn hasn't played well on the road, so -3 is what I expected. If it does change I expect Bama to still be favored though. When its all said and done I think it will be Bame -1.5
Auburn averages 35 points on the road. Bama allows 6.5 at home on average. Do the the math, and you get Auburn scoring 20.5.
Auburn gives up 26.3 on the road. Bama scores 36.5 at home. Do the math on this one, and you find Bama scoring 31.4.
So, either 32 to 21 or 31 to 21. That's just doing the averages by scores. I didn't look at yards or turnovers or T.O.P.
Auburn gives up 26.3 on the road. Bama scores 36.5 at home. Do the math on this one, and you find Bama scoring 31.4.
So, either 32 to 21 or 31 to 21. That's just doing the averages by scores. I didn't look at yards or turnovers or T.O.P.
The line has increased to 4. People are giving auburn too much credit IMO. Cam is great but no one is unbeatable.
As much as I want to give the barn a 31-7 or 36-0 type beat down, I am really scratching my head as to why we are favored. We're ranked lower, in all of our common opponents, the barn has either beaten teams we lost to or beaten the teams we also beat by a significantly larger margin. Our defense has more interceptions than their's but that's really about the only area where we've out shined them. Is the home field really that big of an edge for us? The barn may have played poorly in Lexington, but they had no problem winning in Oxford. To the tune of hanging half a hundred on Ole Miss.
4 is the line I heard yesterday. I figured the 3 was a new one or something.
Are you a Bama fan? Seems like you always only post pro-Auburn comments. I understand being a realist, but your posts come off like an Aub fan.
Latest threads
-
-
Alabama Transitions Wood to New Role, Returns Rainey to Staff- Started by Diamond Tide
- Replies: 0
-
-
Exit Signs - In Preparation for Football Season (watch teasers)- Started by YellowHammerTime
- Replies: 4