TideFans/NARCAS SEC Predictions [by JessN]

BamaNation

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TideFans/NARCAS SEC predictions
August 4, 2006
by Jess Nicholas

Editor's Note: These predictions kickoff our 2006 Football previews. Jess has, for the 7th year, put together a series of great previews about the SEC teams and what we can expect for the 2006 season. Below is his pre-season prediction for how the SEC East & SEC West will finish:


SEC East
Code:
Team			W-L	Conf	
1. Florida		  9-3	6-2	
2. Georgia		 10-2	6-2	
3. Tennessee		  8-4	5-3
READ MORE HERE
 
SEC East

Code:

Team W-L Conf
1. Georgia 11-1 7-1
2. Florida 9-3 6-2
3. Tennessee 8-4 5-3
4. S, Carolina 8-4 5-3
5. Kentucky 5-7 2-6
6. Vanderbilt 3-9 1-7

SEC West

Code:
Team W-L Conf
1. LSU 11-1 7-1
2. Alabama 11-1 7-1 At Alabama we do not play Co Champ
3. Auburn 9-3 5-3
4. Arkansas 6-6 3-5
5. Ole Miss 5-7 2-6
6. Mississippi State 4-8 1-7

EAST

Georgia always does well in the years not expected to. Look for Georgia to repeat last season.

Florida still hasn't worked out the bugs in the salad spread offense. Even with Tebow the Gators are not there yet.

USC and TN tie in the East. Tennessee is no longer a threat to the East. USC and Spurrier along with GA and FL block any chance TN has of winning anything. Even with Cutcliff back as OC the team wins but not big.

The rest are, well the REST. RIP Vandy and Kentucky

WEST

LSU is the most talented of the SEC teams. Les Miles learned last season what it takes to coach in the SEC.

Alabama with its Offense and new Defense will surprise the college football critics. The coaching staff shows its for real and Coach Shula is SEC Coach of the Year.

Auburn is distracted by academic evens and the loss of several players. They remain a good football team but will lose key games.

Arkansas isn't for real. No QB, and RB out with a broken toe. USC (Trojans) wins its practice game at the Sauce. The Hogs will be a little better than last season. Not much. Houston Nutts last year.

Ole Miss Coach Mister Ed talks a good fight but the talent in Oxford is a couple of years away. Some pick Ole Miss to beat Alabama (not going to happen)

MSU - Just another season in the loss column. You are a bad football team when the Maine Black Bears beat you. :BigA:
 
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Alanbama27

All-American
Sep 24, 2003
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I am with everyone else on this one Jess. Auburn will not win the West and will likely not finish ahead of Alabama!

One thing that amazes me is how people think Auburn will be so great???? Auburn returns a total of 11 starters from last years team and yet for some strange reason they are ranked 6th in todays USA Today preseason rankings and Jess has them winning the west.

LSU will likely win the west and in my personal opinion, Bama's schedule sets up very well for working the kinks out before we begin the SEC schedule in week 4. Therefore, the west will likely be decided between LSU and Alabama. Auburn will likely win no more than 8. I realize they have the tough games at home, but I see them losing to LSU, Florida & Georgia for sure and don't count us out!!! This could be our year in Title Town to shove their thumb where it belongs!

One other thing...Tennessee will likely finish 4th in the East as I truly believe that SOS will beat them again!
 

4Q Basket Case

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I'm predicting a win one way or the other of 8-4 for us.

9-3 is possible, as is 7-5. Depends primarily on the Arkansas game.

Losses: LSU, UF, UT and Auburn. Might win one. A split would beat expectations.

Tough, but should win: Arkansas and Ole Miss. Hawaii is also a dark horse for an upset bid. Could lose any of these three, but worst case should be one loss amongst all of them. Most likely loss in this category: Arkansas on the road is always a rugged day, especially having to overcome the SEC refs -- they've screwed Alabama late in this game on outcome-changing calls no fewer than four times since 1996. Ole Miss is my personal pick for SEC darkhorse. Consistency is a problem, but they play smashmouth, and I like that. If Orgeron were our OL coach, I'd be ecstatic. Hawaii is scary, but just as Jones has all summer to prepare for us, Joe Kines has all summer to prepare for them.

3 other non-conference games shouldn't pose a problem, and neither should a Cutler-less Vandy or an MSU in Tuscaloosa.

My prediction: Win the easiest 5, lose one of Ole Miss, Arkansas or Hawaii, and win one of LSU, UF, UT and Auburn. Final record: 8-4.

Bowl? Cotton against aTm.
 
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Roll_Tide_Gal

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Jul 15, 2004
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How can AgBarn win the SEC without any DBs? The goobs lost just as much, if not more, from their defense as we did and nobody seems to care. Their two best returning safeties are now playing LB. A guy that was going to contribute as either the nickelback or as a starting CB left the team. Add that to the loss of their top three receivers, their TE, OTs, and the only fullback and they have plenty of holes to fill to go 11-1.
 

Crimson-Blitz

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Florida's SEC West opponents are a murderers row. LSU, Auburn, and Alabama are all likely losses IMO since Myer will be hard pressed to put together a decent running game. Gimmick offenses will not win him the SEC East.

Tennessee is, for the second straight year, OVERRATED. For the life of me I can't understand why many otherwise astute observers of the SEC continue to give them credit for what they did 8 years ago. This season could easily mirror last years with an opening loss to Cal, which is a distinct possibility. I don't care how athletically talented Ainge is, there is something missing "between the ears" with that kid.

Georgia walks away with the East, and SoCar could easily finish 2nd.

To me LSU is West's the team to beat. Someone tell me why they're not.

Auburn will be very good but could face a nightmare injury scenario like Bama did in '03' and '04'. Combined with a loss of key starters I'll call them "slightly" overrated and predict they lose to Bama, Georgia, LSU, and believe it or not, possibly Arkansas if they get their ground game cranked up. I think their biggest challenge will be stopping a strong running team. Their backfield is dinky.

Bama has a lot of question marks but the pieces are there to potentially provide answers. IF, IF, IF we look better on the O-line we will have a monster ground game allowing JPW to evolve with confidence. The boy has great skills and IMO is being totally overlooked by everyone. I do not expect our D to drop off too much due to a stellar line, although it will be impossible to match the performance of last year's backfield.

Arky is a bigger question mark and is either going to be very competitive or the reason for Nutt's firing.
 

Tide-N-Texas

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Jess must be in pessimistic mood regarding BAMA. I think he is dogging our O-Line, and WR's just a little bit. I usually enjoy his insight but when it comes to predictions I don't pay attention.

I see Bama 10-2 with losses to Florida and LSU. I see that 10-2 record being good enough for either the Capitol 1 Bowl or an outside shot at a BCS @ large bid.
 

JessN

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The reason I'm dogging the OL is because, quite frankly, it fits. Alabama was 10th out of 12 teams in the SEC in sacks allowed last year and 101st overall. Much has been made about Alabama having experience returning on the line, but that leads to the question of whether experience is a good thing if the players in quesiton are mediocre.

Then, people point to the youth on the Alabama OL. That's fine, but the young players were the best ones of the bunch last year -- Caldwell and Stabler, with Marlon Davis probably showing the most ability of the reserves. It was the older players who had the most troubles.

This would have been more acceptable had the running game been better, but Alabama's rushing offense was ranked 65th in the nation, which is just below the halfway mark. Alabama won in 2005 on the strength of its defense and a handful of glamour plays on special teams and by the offense. Nothing wrong with that; that's how Alabama won the 1993 National Championship. Alabama basically put together a three-game run of good offense (South Carolina, Arkansas, Florida) and then disappeared.

That leads me to your note on the WRs. I'm not badmouthing our WRs if D.J. Hall returns as expected. But if he doesn't, Alabama is going to be in a tough spot. The loss of Prothro either triggered or exacerbated the offensive falloff last year, and that was with Hall and Brown in the lineup together for most of the rest of the season. This year, Alabama essentially lost Matt Miller and Brandon Brooks and picked up Nikita Stover. Stover has a lot of prep accolades in his pocket but looked very uneven in the spring.

If Hall is back, then Alabama has two proven receivers (Hall and Brown), another guy who has just 30 catches in two years (Caddell) even though he's been a part-time starter during that time, one guy with ability but no track record (Stover) and two guys with zip for experience at all (Oakley, McDaniel). The wild card is McCoy, who I look to play early and often, but who is a true freshman nonetheless. On the grand scale of receiving corps in the SEC, this is a mid-pack scenario. If Hall is not back, adjust that downward.

I'm not down on the WRs; I'm cautious. To clear things up, I am very much down on the OL, as are many, and the only way the OL will shed the labels attached to them is to get mad and go out and dominate. But on the WRs, I can definitely see where people might be excited; between the speed and athleticism of that group and the potential they bring to the table, they could easily emerge as a major strength.
 

TerryP

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Oct 8, 1999
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Jess must be in pessimistic mood regarding BAMA. I think he is dogging our O-Line, and WR's just a little bit. I usually enjoy his insight but when it comes to predictions I don't pay attention.

I see Bama 10-2 with losses to Florida and LSU. I see that 10-2 record being good enough for either the Capitol 1 Bowl or an outside shot at a BCS @ large bid.
You might want to consider that Jess has been making predictions on this forum for nearly a decade now and has been correct over 80% of the time.

Now, you have your "CBS experts" (as example only) that fall into a 50-55% mark each and every year.

Give me a stock analyst that is correct 80% of the time and you'd find a line waiting for his services miles long.

Chalk me up as one who is pessimistic about the results we'll see on the OL and with the WR corps also. That pessimism, is based on results witnessed, not idle minded predictions.
 

TerryP

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Oct 8, 1999
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A quick note on LSU. Miles is making some adjustments right now with their OL as well. By reports, it looks like they will be starting two new tackles. He's moved their tackles to Guards (should work well with plays designed for the G's to pull) and moved their G's to back up the C position.

Last year, they had some problems with speedy DE's...and now, they are looking to players with little to no experience in those roles.

As I have mentioned before, history tends to repeat itself. If you look at LSU, you'll see a trend with their team in the even numbered years due to their scheduling. '02 and '04 were winning seasons, but not 10 win seasons. I don't see them winning the West.
 

nivekstan

1st Team
Dec 9, 2005
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The reason I'm dogging the OL is because, quite frankly, it fits. Alabama was 10th out of 12 teams in the SEC in sacks allowed last year and 101st overall....This would have been more acceptable had the running game been better, but Alabama's rushing offense was ranked 65th in the nation, which is just below the halfway mark.
i think there is a direct correlation there, since sack yardage is deducted from a teams' rushing yardage. i do agree that the o-line has earned any "dogging" they may receive. a lot of fans point to the texas tech game as a promising sign after the aub and lsu efforts since bc didn't get sacked but we still didn't run the ball consistently against texas tech.
 
Come on folks JessN will not bite you. He is just protecting his view as he should. He does not need others to defend him. If you do agree or do not its fine. This is the Tidefans.com board. So come on and give your opinion. I have recieved private email asking what the heck do you think you are doing? I am just giving my opinion. Do I have JessN experience, probably not. But who does? Please let everyone know how you feel about the up coming season. It's OK. Its not impossible for Alabama to finish 10-2 or 11-1. Ohio St. in Jim Tressel first year 7-5 the next season 2002 the Buckeyes won the NC. After the 2001 season he called for his Offensive line to get mean and they did.(Source: The Sporting News). I saw last years spring practice and this years spring practice. This year it appeared the OL has developed a mean streak of which I did not see in 2005. I expect this to carry on throughout the season. Coach Shula did challenge the OL and they will respond. My expectations are high and not a idle minded prediction.

http://www.commercialappeal.com/mca/football/article/0,1426,MCA_478_4899104,00.html
 
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JessN

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i think there is a direct correlation there, since sack yardage is deducted from a teams' rushing yardage. i do agree that the o-line has earned any "dogging" they may receive. a lot of fans point to the texas tech game as a promising sign after the aub and lsu efforts since bc didn't get sacked but we still didn't run the ball consistently against texas tech.
Yes, sack yardage does come out of collegiate rushing totals. Even so, Alabama lost 249 yards in sacks last year to the 196 yards in sacks the Alabama defense amassed. That's only a difference of 53 yards. By the way, Alabama's defense ranked 57th in sacks, a mid-pack ranking.

So basically, Alabama was losing about 20 yards/game in sack yardage -- significant, but not completely horrid. Part of that, I ascribe to Croyle's experience to step towards the line of scrimmage when he knew pressure couldn't be beat instead of running 20 yards backwards in an attempt to do something miraculous and getting nailed way back there instead.

The issue I have with the O-line is -- and you're going to need film to evaluate this -- take a look at the yards-after-contact stat for Alabama's running backs. I don't have it, because the NCAA doesn't keep it in its stat pack. On many, many occasions last year, Darby was getting five yards after getting met by the first defender two yards deep in the backfield.

What that means is that as good as we all believe Kenneth Darby to be, he's probably even better. This may be sacrilege to say but while I think Shaun Alexander and Johnny Musso were better runners here than Darby is, I think it's by a small margin and the margin is shrinking. I would put Darby on par with Bobby Humphrey -- and I think you'll see what I mean in 2007, when Darby isn't here.
 

nivekstan

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Dec 9, 2005
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The issue I have with the O-line is -- and you're going to need film to evaluate this -- take a look at the yards-after-contact stat for Alabama's running backs. I don't have it, because the NCAA doesn't keep it in its stat pack. On many, many occasions last year, Darby was getting five yards after getting met by the first defender two yards deep in the backfield.
the auburn game is really the only game film you need to watch. i think sometime in the 3rd qtr. cbs showed a pre-programmed highlight of kd vs. kenny irons. if you look at the runs kd was making they were always in traffic and always through a hole that was decreasing. however the highlights they showed of kenny irons were of him running through what i call "emmit smith" holes where the only player in the viewing screen is the rb.
 

GrayTide

Hall of Fame
Nov 15, 2005
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IMO the SEC West will be decided on September 16th when LSU travels to the Loveliest Village. I think AU surprises the Tigers in a close one. The SEC East comes down to the "World's Largest (can't say it) Party, I think UGA pays back the Gators this time. SEC Championship Game a rematch AU vs UGA.
 

Boclive

All-American
Sep 6, 2002
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I've got LSU against an undefeated UGA in Atlanta for the SEC Championship.

LSU 24-UGA 17.