UCLA and USC WILL Join the B1G in 2024

CajunCrimson

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SEC is all about football. If you think of this as a chess match, by bringing in Miami, Florida state, Clemson, Houston, Louisville, Va Tech, etc you secure the recruiting hotbeds and bring in huge football powers.

Imagine bringing those schools in, and then comparing those results to the B1G. You now have tOSU and USC vs an SEC with no less than 10 different schools with championships since 2000.

10 🤯

With the 🐐 sitting at the head of the table
 

KrAzY3

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SEC is all about football. If you think of this as a chess match, by bringing in Miami, Florida state, Clemson, Houston, Louisville, Va Tech, etc you secure the recruiting hotbeds and bring in huge football powers.

Imagine bringing those schools in, and then comparing those results to the B1G. You now have tOSU and USC vs an SEC with no less than 10 different schools with championships since 2000.
If that's how they play chess they're going to get murdered.

First off, I mentioned the Southern conference, but the Southern Conference had Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. So they are going for the mini version of the Southern Conference in that scenario, a more stunted version.

The only new territory that they are securing in that scenario is Virginia. That's it, they already are present and recruit well in all of those areas and well they do ok in Virginia as well.

It's pretty amateurish to be just like ok let's add all the already in SEC territory programs that seem kind of good at football. Don't get me wrong, I think a lot of people running the show at the SEC are amateurish. They've repeatedly signed short sighted SEC TV deals, etc... but it's a temporary gain at best.

Va Tech already took the tumble I predicted years ago, but let's consider Clemson and FSU for instance. What will their programs look like after a few years of SEC competition? Does anyone really think they'll really push aside the true SEC powers? Or, will they look like a pre-Dabo, pre-Bobby type or program which overall was pretty forgettable? Long term these are middle of the road SEC programs, not the centerpieces of a move that counters what the Big 10 is up to.

If the SEC responds to the Big 10 getting Notre Dame and USC with FSU and Clemson they've already lost. Seriously, game over. If that's their chess moves they're cooked

Edit: I would add that is isn't that adding FSU and VT for instance is so unbearable, but there needs to be more of it than that. If they add FSU, VT, North Carolina for instance, ok then at least there's some meaningful expansion there. But if all they end up doing is inviting another person to dinner while essentially still sharing the same amount of food as before, that's just no good.
 

UAH

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I got new eyes, so to speak, 2 months ago.
They pulled off the shades that were Cataracts, then sold me implant lenses, suddenly I can see like a kid again. Who knew?
Yeah me too. Thirty days past it and have put my glasses back in their case. Distant sight is 20/20.
 

CajunCrimson

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What meaningful college football market has the B1G picked up since expansion?

College Park/DC? Piscataway? Lincoln? Morgantown?

LA may be the worst college football market there is. Primarily because baseball and NBA overlap now.

If you were going to purge the PAC, at least take Washington and Oregon and Colorado. At least they watch college football there
 

Crimson1967

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Of the six new SEC members, five got us into new states. The other was Texas, which I think everyone would agree is worth doubling up in the Lone Star state.

But would adding Florida State and/or (especially and) Miami really help? Sure, it gives us all three big name Florida schools but it doesn’t really expand the footprint.

Clemson? If the choice was between them and South Carolina they’d probably be the better choice but we are already in a state whose population is roughly that of Alabama.

A week ago I wouldn’t have wanted to expand until we get TX/OK fully integrated but we may have to with the Big Ten on the prowl. North Carolina and Virginia get us into new territories. I just wonder if they would want to leave the high brow ACC to join us country bumpkins in the SEC. I also wonder if they’d only come if they bring little brother along. Virginia probably doesn’t care that much about their version of the barn but would UNC insist on NC State or Duke. Will Duke be able to keep it going post-Coach K?
 

81usaf92

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If that's how they play chess they're going to get murdered.

First off, I mentioned the Southern conference, but the Southern Conference had Virginia, Maryland, and North Carolina. So they are going for the mini version of the Southern Conference in that scenario, a more stunted version.

The only new territory that they are securing in that scenario is Virginia. That's it, they already are present and recruit well in all of those areas and well they do ok in Virginia as well.

It's pretty amateurish to be just like ok let's add all the already in SEC territory programs that seem kind of good at football. Don't get me wrong, I think a lot of people running the show at the SEC are amateurish. They've repeatedly signed short sighted SEC TV deals, etc... but it's a temporary gain at best.

Va Tech already took the tumble I predicted years ago, but let's consider Clemson and FSU for instance. What will their programs look like after a few years of SEC competition? Does anyone really think they'll really push aside the true SEC powers? Or, will they look like a pre-Dabo, pre-Bobby type or program which overall was pretty forgettable? Long term these are middle of the road SEC programs, not the centerpieces of a move that counters what the Big 10 is up to.

If the SEC responds to the Big 10 getting Notre Dame and USC with FSU and Clemson they've already lost. Seriously, game over. If that's their chess moves they're cooked

Edit: I would add that is isn't that adding FSU and VT for instance is so unbearable, but there needs to be more of it than that. If they add FSU, VT, North Carolina for instance, ok then at least there's some meaningful expansion there. But if all they end up doing is inviting another person to dinner while essentially still sharing the same amount of food as before, that's just no good.
Florida St is the only valuable addition out of FSU, Clemson, and Miami. People act like Miami is a top 20 football program because they won 5 NCs in their lifetime but their fan support is non existent and they haven’t done jack since 2002.

Clemson is the weirdo in the bunch. They are by far the most successful ACC team in history but their fan base is smaller than 90% of the SEC teams currently. They would get murdered if they joined the SEC.
 

KrAzY3

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What meaningful college football market has the B1G picked up since expansion?

College Park/DC? Piscataway? Lincoln? Morgantown?

LA may be the worst college football market there is. Primarily because baseball and NBA overlap now.

If you were going to purge the PAC, at least take Washington and Oregon and Colorado. At least they watch college football there
I've tried explaining this a few times in a few ways, but let me give an example.

Alabama's shoe deal is worth about 5.5 million a year. UCLA's is worth 7.7 million, which is actually quite a bit less than UCLA's previous deal. Within the answer lies what I've been getting at. Bad business acumen mixed with just how more attractive some markets are.

People keep thinking any football fan worth anywhere is worth the same amount of money. That's not how it works. The Big 10 added a top 5 football brand within the fifth largest economy in the world. California's GDP is like 15 times South Carolina's...

This is about money, not fans (and not just football, basketball is also a revenue sport). The SEC doesn't have the resources of the Big 10. They need more money and more territory if they hope to win (as things stand now they are already at a massive financial disadvantage). They won't win only by fortifying existing territory, it will just mean they can hold out longer.
 

81usaf92

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I've tried explaining this a few times in a few ways, but let me give an example.

Alabama's shoe deal is worth about 5.5 million a year. UCLA's is worth 7.7 million, which is actually quite a bit less than UCLA's previous deal. Within the answer lies what I've been getting at. Bad business acumen mixed with just how more attractive some markets are.

People keep thinking any football fan worth anywhere is worth the same amount of money. That's not how it works. The Big 10 added a top 5 football brand within the fifth largest economy in the world. California's GDP is like 15 times South Carolina's...

This is about money, not fans (and not just football, basketball is also a revenue sport). The SEC doesn't have the resources of the Big 10. They need more money and more territory if they hope to win (as things stand now they are already at a massive financial disadvantage). They won't win only by fortifying existing territory, it will just mean they can hold out longer.
People are just set in this football only mindset . If the SEC adds Clemson and Miami and it loses NC and Virginia then I seriously question what Sankey was thinking. Clemson would probably be a 5 win team by joining because they are going to be seriously outgunned by most of the SEC. Miami will be further irrelevant than they already are.
 

B1GTide

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If the SEC goes after those programs it will only to kill the ACC, which has some value as it further strengthens the SECs control of college football. But landing VA in addition to those schools would increase the revenue of the conference.

Kill the ACC and take over the Mid-Atlantic- game over. The B1G and the SEC make all of the rules. Everyone else gets on board or gets left out entirely.

With power, the money will follow.
 

Patton

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Florida St is the only valuable addition out of FSU, Clemson, and Miami. People act like Miami is a top 20 football program because they won 5 NCs in their lifetime but their fan support is non existent and they haven’t done jack since 2002.

Clemson is the weirdo in the bunch. They are by far the most successful ACC team in history but their fan base is smaller than 90% of the SEC teams currently. They would get murdered if they joined the SEC.
THE U is about to do a lot.......
 

CajunCrimson

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I've tried explaining this a few times in a few ways, but let me give an example.

Alabama's shoe deal is worth about 5.5 million a year. UCLA's is worth 7.7 million, which is actually quite a bit less than UCLA's previous deal. Within the answer lies what I've been getting at. Bad business acumen mixed with just how more attractive some markets are.

People keep thinking any football fan worth anywhere is worth the same amount of money. That's not how it works. The Big 10 added a top 5 football brand within the fifth largest economy in the world. California's GDP is like 15 times South Carolina's...

This is about money, not fans (and not just football, basketball is also a revenue sport). The SEC doesn't have the resources of the Big 10. They need more money and more territory if they hope to win (as things stand now they are already at a massive financial disadvantage). They won't win only by fortifying existing territory, it will just mean they can hold out longer.
What is Northwestern’s shoe deal worth? Chicago is the 3rd largest city behind LA

What is Miami’s shoe deal? 3 million just in Broward and Dade

Dallas has Baylor - what is Baylor’s shoe deal?

What about Temple? Philly is a Top 10 market?

If the LA example holds I would think all are bigger than Bama

Otherwise the LA example is unique and not applicable as a rule.
 
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CajunCrimson

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TideEngineer08

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Not trying to argue what teams to take with this statement, but what do y’all think is about to happen to Notre Dame under full Big Ten membership?

What is a yearly 7-5 Notre Dame worth in the long run? Check out some of their NBC ratings lately…
 
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81usaf92

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Not trying to argue what teams to take with this statement, but what do y’all think is about to happen to Notre Dame under full Big Ten membership?

What is a yearly 7-5 Notre Dame worth in the long run? Check out some of their NBC ratings lately…
Probably either go away or find a compromise. I would bank on the latter.
 

TideEngineer08

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Probably either go away or find a compromise. I would bank on the latter.
My point is this. People keep bringing up how Clemson is not a valuable target because their numbers are inflated from being in the ACC. Once in the SEC and facing the SEC powers annually, they will fall to 4-8 every year.

Well Notre Dame is no different. They are worse in that regard. One of the nice benefits of Independence for them has been the ability to craft schedules to inflate their record. This has become especially true with their stronger tie to the ACC. At least in the 1980s, Notre Dame regularly played a powerhouse Miami, USC, a strong Michigan, Michigan State, etc.

Notre Dame’s run of success under Brian Kelley just so happened to correspond with their ACC partial membership. We see how they got routinely plowed under in the postseason.

So what I’m saying is while I do not deny Notre Dame’s historical place in the sport, their ratings on NBC games are already weak unless it’s a Clemson or Georgia they are playing. They are far more regional today than they like to admit and full Big Ten membership is going to further cement that.

Having said all that, I am not arguing for us to add Clemson. I admit I do not fully understand how the numbers would work out in the end. But then, I don’t think any of us do.
 
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CajunCrimson

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Baylor is in Waco…. 1 hr and some change southwest of Dallas. But it is an Aggie, Horns, and Sooners town.
I guess that’s part of my point. USC and UCLA aren’t in the B1G because of LA’s GDP. It’s for recruiting and name recognition. If it was about GDP Temple, Miami, UCF, USF, Ga Tech, Pitt, Colorado, Kansas, SMU/TCU, Houston and Rice, etc would be targets.

I would guess Soccer out performs college football in So Cal…..but that’s just a guess
 
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CullmanTide

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Florida ST., Miami and Clemson would be MUCH more valuable to the Big 12 than any other conference. They would thrive there. A move to the SEC is a bad idea for all involved.
 
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