Dan Mullen got off to a great start at Florida with his first two seasons being 10-3 then 11-2. In his third season, the team was 8-1 with a shot at the playoff and a Heisman finalist at QB. So, that's 29-6 deep into his third season.
Will Muschamp, whose reputation was much less, was 22-9 and on the verge of a shot at the BCS title game his second season, too. Then he lost to LSU in 2013 and the cratering was on.
1) This is not 1978 Florida anymore. The in-state talent is obvious and so any minimally competent coach is going to be able to go 10-3 there without his coaching having anything to do with it.
In that sense, Florida really is an Alabama-level job. Coach Bryant saw that back in the 60s and is probably glad they didn't figure it out until long after he was gone. Ten wins at Florida should be possible simply by virtue of the talent in the state.
2) Muschamp's descent coincided with FSU's national championship.
Again, this is not unexpected, either. Go back and look at the three Florida schools. GENERALLY speaking - and yes, I know you can probably find a year here and there when all three were really good and it's very easy to find years when all three were terrible. But the anomaly, of course, is 1991-1994, when all three schools were really at a peak with each other. In that case, you had Miami's talent (obtained largely through corruption that resulted in a smack 'em probation) and two legendary coaches (Spurrier and Bowden) at their peaks. But notice even that it was not sustainable. Erickson rode the talent Jimmy Johnson acquired to two titles and then watched his program get vaporized on the rug of the Superdome.
My larger point? Winning at Florida depends on both an uncontrolled confluence of factors - such as who is coaching the other teams, the schedules of the other teams, sanctions, bad press, etc - and controlled factors, of which the most important is the head football coach.
Maybe Dan Mullen's legendary accomplishments at Mississippi State - which, let's admit were PHENOMENAL for the school at which he was and suggested maybe, just maybe he could be the golden goose - aren't the skill set to transfer to Florida. YES, he was 69-46 OVERALL, he was 33-39 in the SEC. But micro-analysis will always reveal whether the larger picture is correct. We'll spot Mullen for not beating Alabama simply because NOBODY has been able to beat Alabama the last decade-plus. But were there other circumstances that eased his course?
a) he walked into MSU when Ole Miss was coming off the Orgeron era and the entire Houston Nutt era
b) MSU's "annual East opponent" is Kentucky, and Mullen was 8-1 against the Wildcats, and the game he lost was on a final play 51-yard field goal in 2016. In other words, essentially 25% of his SEC success is based on beating a team he should be able to beat anyway (even if he can't at UF, LOL!)
c) in evaluating Mullen, the number people focused on was "if you take his 9 losses to Alabama away, he's 33-30 in the SEC at MSU." That's precisely the wrong kind of micro-analysis that misleads people.
d) his 5-4 record vs Ole Miss was read as "and this is while Ole Miss was great," but he didn't beat their "great (corrupt)" teams, he beat their lousy ones.
What was his record against the powerhouses in the SEC?
And if he didn't win was he competitive?
Again, we'll drop Alabama as we do have to admit Mullen had his squad ready to play Alabama...just so long as Alabama played LSU the week previous.
Let's cut to the chase and look.
8 wins vs Kentucky
5 wins vs Ole Miss (didn't beat "good Ole Miss")
2 wins vs Vandy
3 wins vs ATM (didn't beat Manziel)
5 wins vs Arky (the moment Petrino let them in shambles, they go 5-1)
3 wins vs Auburn in 4 years (2012-2015, when Auburn had a great year and then was Auburn)
26 of 33 wins came against what is essentially the riff-raff of the SEC or schools nowhere close to their peaks.
They beat LSU twice...and one just happens to be the year LSU lost to Troy.
Now folks get mad when I point this out, but I'm doing this to say "Dan Mullen is a lousy football coach," I 'm pointing out "Dan Mullen is NOT as good a coach as the NARRATIVE surrounding him suggested he was going to Florida."
Narrative: "Look at what Mullen did in the second school in Mississippi, just IMAGINE what he could do at Florida where recruiting would be much easier and with better support yadda yadda!. And no, he didn't beat Alabama but HE PLAYED THEM CLOSE SEVERAL TIMES!"
Reality: Mullen never actually beat anyone worth a damn his entire time in Starkville, and his "close games against Alabama" were either HOME GAMES immediately AFTER Alabama had a brutal war with LSU (2011, 2013, 2017) or weren't close in the real world but were on the final scoreboard (2014). You can cherry pick Mullen and say "he played Alabama close," but you can also cherry pick him and say, "He lost by scores of 31-3, 30-10, 38-7, 31-6, and 51-3," too.
Now let me throw myself on my own sword here - I never did micro-analysis of Mullen and thus, I, TOO, AM GUILTY of having the thought "he'll do well in Gainesville." That's on me, although if I had been a paid analyst like those guys on TV are, I would have done what I just did here and rated his chances of success VERY low. So I'm not excluding myself from criticism here. I was wrong.
Then a shoe was thrown. Since that embarrassing loss to LSU, Florida has gone 4-8. So, Florida has lost more games in the last 12 games than in the first 35 games under Mullen. So, the obvious question is, what on earth happened?
I was in the stands at the 2013 MSU-Kentucky game when Nick Whitley of MSU punched pro wrassler Sting's son in the pile and was ejected from the game.
So let's see, we have a player who punches in the pile and another moron who throws a shoe.
And players only do things like that under coaches they actually think they can get away with it.
That really tells me more about Mullen than his record does. I get players do dumb things, but an intelligent coach knows to drive his "you're replaceable" point home. Mullen has clearly never done this - and it's a large part of his failure.
