Why The Newest Incarnation Of The Big 12 Will Implode

selmaborntidefan

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Mar 31, 2000
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I must admit this last several months has been by far the most exciting off-season I can ever remember - and not just because we're #1. The shuffles, the bluffing, the high stakes poker of big-time CFB and what we've had is a minimal realignment at best. I also think that the greed of the UT is going to destroy the Big 12 inside and out and very soon. Let's just use a little logic here. (I will use the FAMILIAR designations - please nobody write me and say "it is now the Pac 12" blah blah. That's because the Big 12 is tough enough to figure out, so we'll just call the Texas-OU the Big 12 for brevity's sake).

Texas decided it is the 'belle of the ball.' And sure, they have an attractive product in a number of sports. But this probably did them (and their co-conspirators) in more than they realize.

1) The Pac-Ten now has a conference playoff. Remember all those times when the Big 12 had them a team highly ranked that scooted in the championship game despite losing their only tough regular season game? Well the SOS for the Pac 12 will now offset that somewhat. Despite the problems at USC, they ARE STILL USC. A team that beats them this year in particular (when they will no doubt start pretty high based on rep) will get a boost. That extra game may well be the difference (just go ask Florida 2006) in who gets to play for all the marbles.

2) The scheduling just got more difficult for the Big 12-2. The Big 10 and Pac 10 now have some changes to make. I suspect the Big Ten will now go to an eight-game conference schedule, five in division and three out. Pac 10 will probably do the same. That means out of 12 games, eight are predetermined. And I also suspect in the case of Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State that a NINTH game is determined: Notre Dame (at least for now). That leaves three games for some to schedule and four for others. How many of those do you think want to schedule September games in Texas?

3) This does little more than regionalize the Big 12. Sure, Texas is a draw. But how many of you have even watched a NON-BOWL GAME involving Texas Tech playing anyone OTHER than Texas in the past 20 years? Maybe one - the 2008 game with Oklahoma because that one had implications nationally.

But your interest in THAT game was why? Because Alabama was unbeaten and it was all coming together. If that game had been played between those same teams in November 2007 - would you have watched it? Probably not. Consider the other co-conspirators here.

Baylor? Get real. I haven't seen Baylor play since Grant Teaff's last game.

Oklahoma State? Other than their bowl games, how many games has OK State played against teams OTHER than OU or Texas that you even cared to watch? And you probably only watch the OU game because OU is a draw (I'll bet you never watched those games in the late 1990s, did you?) - and because the game is played during the Thanksgiving break.

When is the last time you saw Kansas play in FOOTBALL and actually cared? I guess at the end of the 2007 season and that was probably the ONLY time you've ever cared. What about K-State? K-State has played THREE games of significance in its entire history of losing: the Big 12 title games in 1998 and 2003, and the 1998 game against Nebraska. If I'm not mistaken, those are the only three K-State games I've seen in my entire life. And I didn't watch all of any of those games.

Iowa State? Other than the 2001 Independence Bowl, how many ISU games have you watched? In my case, one - Nebraska 2002. (How many of you have noticed that the ONLY time you ever watched these small schools was when they played Nebraska, OU, or Texas?).

That leaves us with three teams: aTm, Texas, and OU. And a lot of us (yours truly) turned on aTm during the Fran Ran era. Outside of Texas other than Aggies, how many even care? How many non-bowl games that aTm plays have you watched OTHER than Texas? I'd say it's probably in the single digits.


Now I say all of that droning to say this: what just happened is that Texas just REDUCED the reach of its lesser foes. They will find it more difficult to schedule games against the Big Ten and Pac Ten simply because those schools will now be more careful in scheduling. They will have to be because of the title game. (And I'm not so sure the Big Ten won't have a NINE-GAME rotation with only 3 OOCs). Plus there will be some hard feelings and let's face it - if you can sell out an Iowa Hawkeyes game by scheduling N Iowa, why would you replace them with Oklahoma State or Baylor?

You then throw in the fact that Nebraska imho has the most passionate fans in the Big 12 (and my brother would rate them ahead of us). They will be rejuvenated, and I'm guessing that Big Ten West will be easier than the East (Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and one of the Indy teams).

Oh and btw - if it comes down to an either/or between Big Ten Nebraska or a Big 12 school INCLUDING the Big 2 - guess who gets the call for the big cahuna?

4) The bottom line is this: Texas wants its own network blah blah. But to make that work you also need quality opponents and outreach. Let's face it - with Nebraska gone the Big 12 is now Texas and Oklahoma. Sure, Kansas has two teams, but other than KU in b-ball does either have anything resembling a NATIONAL following? And how many KU fans are going to tune in to watch reruns of the Jayhawks getting slaughtered by UT on the rebroadcast?

Otoh - if they had gone to the Pac Ten then guess what? All of a sudden California, Oregon, and Washington have to take an extreme interest in what Texas is doing. (Well, maybe not Washington in these days but both teams will eventually improve). The Pac Ten just extended their significance eastward to both Utah and Colorado. The Big Ten just extended theirs to a crown jewel in football when it's hitting on all cylinders.

The Big 12, meanwhile, is like those kids you played with who suddenly made up rules on the spot when it was clear they were going to lose. They shrunk the playing field, shrunk their influence, and now nobody outside of two states even cares.

They will still be looking up at the SEC, but they will also be looking up at the Big and Pac Ten conferences very soon.
 
I don't see the big 12-2 getting a TV contract that can pay anywhere close to what has been promised. I agree this league will be short lived and I hope the short horns get left out in the cold when it folds.
 
This "new deal" wasn't set up for long term purposes. It was setup to save jobs and keep the Big 12 together. Which is why I am in total shock that A&M didn't give the "middle finger" to the entire conference and come to the SEC. But trust me, after about three or so years under this deal and everyone starts to not only realize how this ONLY benefited Texas but start to see the impact of it they are going to be sorry they agreed on this.
 
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This "new deal" wasn't set up for long term purposes. It was setup to save jobs and keep the Big 12 together. Which is why I am in total shock that A&M didn't give the "middle finger" to the entire conference and come to the SEC. But trust me, after about three or so years under this deal and everyone starts to not only realize how this ONLY benefited Texas but start to see the impact of it they are going to be sorry they agreed on this.

I agree. This whole thing with the Big Texas 10 is like trying to fix a bullet wound with some gauze and tape. A few years from now the whole thing will be shaken up and Texas A&M will be heading for the SEC. Missouri will be heading for the SEC or for the Big 10 if they decide to expand again. The others will merge with the Mountain West and/or PAC 10. Texas may try to be independent or go to the PAC-10.
 
Good points by the OP. Conventional wisdom is the Big-12 implodes due to lack of trust amongst the institutions, unequal revenue sharing, and fear of being left behind in another UTw power-grab. I wouldn't bet against conventional wisdom.

However! One could argue that UTw went all-in... and lost. Now UTw needs a viable Big-12(!). UTw may have made themselves toxic to other conferences. Going the independent route is a roll of the dice. So irony and karma unite; UTw must work like mad to keep the Big-12 viable! Bring in more schools to get back to 12 members. Play nicer re revenue sharing. And most importantly, work the back rooms of the Texas Statehouse to ensure NO Texas team bolts for the SEC or any other conference.

We could have a future where the Missouri, Kansas, Iowa, & Oklahoma schools of the Big-12 will be the only ones that could leave the Big-12. And if any leave, replace 'em with a Texas school. Texas has enough schools to do it... although Stephen F. Austin in Denton, TX may have to step it up in football... :biggrin:

Hey, I wouldn't bet money on this scenario unfolding. But it could...
:PDT_old:
 
Interesting points and worthy of thought. The one thing I'll add is that if the other Texas conference teams were smart, they'd trying to find a way out (as clandestinely and covertly as possible). Trouble is, truth and news of even secret negotiations have a way of getting out in the open.

Still, in a perfect world, I'd love to see the Texas conference implode quickly and Texas left holding the bag with nowhere to go. I'm sure they'd land somewhere but I wouldn't want them in the SEC.

What could possibly happen is Iowa State, Baylor, Kansas and K-State could join the Mountain West or the MAC. If they could get the same revenue that will turn out with the new revenue sharing deal they'll get from the Texas conference, heck, they might as well bolt. At least they wouldn't be humiliated and have to deal with the Longhorns arrogance.

Bottom line, though, this deal is a temporary thing. Texas is kind of like the smoking hot good looking wife who's married to the nerdy guy from accounting at the bank who just caught her cheating on him with someone else. Odds are he'll never trust her again and the relationship has been most likely mortally wounded. Same thing with Texas. By their own greediness, they've most likely mortally wounded the long term viability of the conference.
 
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Interesting points, but the interpretation of the facts could just as easily lead an observer to think the new Big 12-2 will work (if you define "work" as not falling apart) if for no reason other than they got nowhere else to go.

Texas can't get the TV deal and outsized division of money anywhere else.

Oklahoma has publically stated its intent to follow Texas. I don't understand that, and have expressed why on this forum. But that's what they said.

Texas A&M could have gotten out, and the SEC would have accepted them as an equal member with open arms. But in the end they bowed to the burnt orange. Again, I don't understand why. But they had the best chance in 100 years to get out of the shadow of the horns, and folded at the last minute.

The other seven have no other BCS options.

It's like the setup in a polygamistic society. Texas is the cat-daddy. Texas A&M and Oklahoma are the wives, and have made their peace with being forever subservient in exchange for the prestige of being associated with Texas. The other seven are concubines who provide regular servicings in exchange for being kept comfortable.

Under those weird terms, I think it just might work. Texas has no reason to change the status quo. The seven tag-alongs couldn't even if they wanted to.

It depends on whether Oklahoma and Texas A&M get fed up. If they don't, the Big 12-2 is a mutually beneficial, if bad strange, association. If they do wake up and spit out the dirt from Texas bootsoles, it'll fold.

And if that happens, their fan and alumni bases should be up in arms about why they didn't leave in the spring of 2010.
 
At some point the Long Horn Conference will start to chafe at the inequity of the conference rules being slanted to benefit the 'Big T'... and...
then the feelings of 'Not being treated fairly' will crank up. :redface:
(That's the beginning of the end)

The SEC will be there to say 'I told you so!' :cool2:
 
On a couple of UT boards, the question is being posed as to what the present lineup is going to do to UT's SOS and BCSCG chances. Hard to believe that it's just now occurring to them...
 
On a couple of UT boards, the question is being posed as to what the present lineup is going to do to UT's SOS and BCSCG chances. Hard to believe that it's just now occurring to them...

Maybe they should check with Dennis Franchione, Tom Culpepper, Phil Fulmer or Lane Kiffin about what happens when you tick off Karma. :eek2:
 
Interesting points, but the interpretation of the facts could just as easily lead an observer to think the new Big 12-2 will work (if you define "work" as not falling apart) if for no reason other than they got nowhere else to go.

Texas can't get the TV deal and outsized division of money anywhere else.

Oklahoma has publically stated its intent to follow Texas. I don't understand that, and have expressed why on this forum. But that's what they said.

Texas A&M could have gotten out, and the SEC would have accepted them as an equal member with open arms. But in the end they bowed to the burnt orange. Again, I don't understand why. But they had the best chance in 100 years to get out of the shadow of the horns, and folded at the last minute.

The other seven have no other BCS options.

It's like the setup in a polygamistic society. Texas is the cat-daddy. Texas A&M and Oklahoma are the wives, and have made their peace with being forever subservient in exchange for the prestige of being associated with Texas. The other seven are concubines who provide regular servicings in exchange for being kept comfortable.

Under those weird terms, I think it just might work. Texas has no reason to change the status quo. The seven tag-alongs couldn't even if they wanted to.

It depends on whether Oklahoma and Texas A&M get fed up. If they don't, the Big 12-2 is a mutually beneficial, if bad strange, association. If they do wake up and spit out the dirt from Texas bootsoles, it'll fold.

And if that happens, their fan and alumni bases should be up in arms about why they didn't leave in the spring of 2010.

I agree with you that it could work, after all, we keep being told that Texas Politics will not let Texas and aTm divorce. I think there is a certain pride in keeping a UT-dominated local conference in which Texas can be the leader and champion.

No doubt this current Big 12 -2 will fall apart, but unless Texas goes indepentent I can see there will always be a conference of some number dominated by UT and made up of all, or several Texas teams.

posted from a dial-up device
 
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I think the real situation is that aTm and UT will never get divorced, unless aTm desires it. At such time as the Aggies decide they want out, the politicians who defend them will fall into line. Of course, if they decide to head east, as almost happened this time, the pro-UT pols may try to prevent it...
 
On a couple of UT boards, the question is being posed as to what the present lineup is going to do to UT's SOS and BCSCG chances. Hard to believe that it's just now occurring to them...

This is what I have been wondering. From what I've read, it seems that UT and OU coaches prefer a ten team league without a conference championship game. How chicken**** can you get? They fear the extra game. Well, I hope teams from the Big 10/12 and the PAC 10/12 pass them by because voters relaize that OU and UT will only have two or three tough games. The first time UT gets passed by a team with a tougher SOS is when we will see UT add two more teams to THEIR league.

On the flip side, I am glad that things worked out like they did because I like the SEC just like it is.
 
Good Post. However, I don't know why the Big Ten and Pac Ten expansion would impact the Big 12 scheduling. The Big Ten already plays 8 conference games each year, and that probably won't change. The Pac 10 plays 9 conference games each year, and that certainly won't increase and could possibly decrease.
 
I think the real situation is that aTm and UT will never get divorced, unless aTm desires it. At such time as the Aggies decide they want out, the politicians who defend them will fall into line. Of course, if they decide to head east, as almost happened this time, the pro-UT pols may try to prevent it...



Yeah it kind of reminds you of that abusive relationship where one is abusing the other and the weaker one just can't seem to leave until they have had enough
 
I must admit this last several months has been by far the most exciting off-season I can ever remember - and not just because we're #1. The shuffles, the bluffing, the high stakes poker of big-time CFB and what we've had is a minimal realignment at best. I also think that the greed of the UT is going to destroy the Big 12 inside and out and very soon. Let's just use a little logic here. (I will use the FAMILIAR designations - please nobody write me and say "it is now the Pac 12" blah blah. That's because the Big 12 is tough enough to figure out, so we'll just call the Texas-OU the Big 12 for brevity's sake).

Texas decided it is the 'belle of the ball.' And sure, they have an attractive product in a number of sports. But this probably did them (and their co-conspirators) in more than they realize.

1) The Pac-Ten now has a conference playoff. Remember all those times when the Big 12 had them a team highly ranked that scooted in the championship game despite losing their only tough regular season game? Well the SOS for the Pac 12 will now offset that somewhat. Despite the problems at USC, they ARE STILL USC. A team that beats them this year in particular (when they will no doubt start pretty high based on rep) will get a boost. That extra game may well be the difference (just go ask Florida 2006) in who gets to play for all the marbles.

2) The scheduling just got more difficult for the Big 12-2. The Big 10 and Pac 10 now have some changes to make. I suspect the Big Ten will now go to an eight-game conference schedule, five in division and three out. Pac 10 will probably do the same. That means out of 12 games, eight are predetermined. And I also suspect in the case of Michigan, Michigan State, and Penn State that a NINTH game is determined: Notre Dame (at least for now). That leaves three games for some to schedule and four for others. How many of those do you think want to schedule September games in Texas?

3) This does little more than regionalize the Big 12. Sure, Texas is a draw. But how many of you have even watched a NON-BOWL GAME involving Texas Tech playing anyone OTHER than Texas in the past 20 years? Maybe one - the 2008 game with Oklahoma because that one had implications nationally.

But your interest in THAT game was why? Because Alabama was unbeaten and it was all coming together. If that game had been played between those same teams in November 2007 - would you have watched it? Probably not. Consider the other co-conspirators here.

Baylor? Get real. I haven't seen Baylor play since Grant Teaff's last game.

Oklahoma State? Other than their bowl games, how many games has OK State played against teams OTHER than OU or Texas that you even cared to watch? And you probably only watch the OU game because OU is a draw (I'll bet you never watched those games in the late 1990s, did you?) - and because the game is played during the Thanksgiving break.

When is the last time you saw Kansas play in FOOTBALL and actually cared? I guess at the end of the 2007 season and that was probably the ONLY time you've ever cared. What about K-State? K-State has played THREE games of significance in its entire history of losing: the Big 12 title games in 1998 and 2003, and the 1998 game against Nebraska. If I'm not mistaken, those are the only three K-State games I've seen in my entire life. And I didn't watch all of any of those games.

Iowa State? Other than the 2001 Independence Bowl, how many ISU games have you watched? In my case, one - Nebraska 2002. (How many of you have noticed that the ONLY time you ever watched these small schools was when they played Nebraska, OU, or Texas?).

That leaves us with three teams: aTm, Texas, and OU. And a lot of us (yours truly) turned on aTm during the Fran Ran era. Outside of Texas other than Aggies, how many even care? How many non-bowl games that aTm plays have you watched OTHER than Texas? I'd say it's probably in the single digits.


Now I say all of that droning to say this: what just happened is that Texas just REDUCED the reach of its lesser foes. They will find it more difficult to schedule games against the Big Ten and Pac Ten simply because those schools will now be more careful in scheduling. They will have to be because of the title game. (And I'm not so sure the Big Ten won't have a NINE-GAME rotation with only 3 OOCs). Plus there will be some hard feelings and let's face it - if you can sell out an Iowa Hawkeyes game by scheduling N Iowa, why would you replace them with Oklahoma State or Baylor?

You then throw in the fact that Nebraska imho has the most passionate fans in the Big 12 (and my brother would rate them ahead of us). They will be rejuvenated, and I'm guessing that Big Ten West will be easier than the East (Nebraska, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, and one of the Indy teams).

Oh and btw - if it comes down to an either/or between Big Ten Nebraska or a Big 12 school INCLUDING the Big 2 - guess who gets the call for the big cahuna?

4) The bottom line is this: Texas wants its own network blah blah. But to make that work you also need quality opponents and outreach. Let's face it - with Nebraska gone the Big 12 is now Texas and Oklahoma. Sure, Kansas has two teams, but other than KU in b-ball does either have anything resembling a NATIONAL following? And how many KU fans are going to tune in to watch reruns of the Jayhawks getting slaughtered by UT on the rebroadcast?

Otoh - if they had gone to the Pac Ten then guess what? All of a sudden California, Oregon, and Washington have to take an extreme interest in what Texas is doing. (Well, maybe not Washington in these days but both teams will eventually improve). The Pac Ten just extended their significance eastward to both Utah and Colorado. The Big Ten just extended theirs to a crown jewel in football when it's hitting on all cylinders.

The Big 12, meanwhile, is like those kids you played with who suddenly made up rules on the spot when it was clear they were going to lose. They shrunk the playing field, shrunk their influence, and now nobody outside of two states even cares.

They will still be looking up at the SEC, but they will also be looking up at the Big and Pac Ten conferences very soon.

Could you repeat that, please?
 
Good Post. However, I don't know why the Big Ten and Pac Ten expansion would impact the Big 12 scheduling. The Big Ten already plays 8 conference games each year, and that probably won't change. The Pac 10 plays 9 conference games each year, and that certainly won't increase and could possibly decrease.

I would guess the Pac 12 will decrease the number of conference games and divide into two divisions like the rest of the 12 team conferences if not then what would be the point of playing a conference championship game. Playing 9 conference games would almost guarantee a rematch in that game.
 
I would think that you would join a conference and treat each university that are members in an equitable manner: $'s, etc. I think the SEC does this.

The Big 12 minus 2 does not treat each member as equals or should I say that some universities are more equal than others, i.e. Horns, Sooners, and possibly A & M. In fact the Sooners and A & M would not be considered equals with Texas. Texas needs to join a conference with the Big Boys, i.e. the SEC.

The Horns strength of schedule should be considered a JOKE! It's Texas and the nine sisters of the poor. How could they ever claim to be National Champions with their conference schedule?

This conference cannot last because of the inequities that exist!
 

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