Last year, as I recall, was supposed to be a small class, too, BET, but it got bigger. Curious, why couldn't the same thing happen in 2011? Couldn't kids transfer out, as they have throughout CNS's tenure?
Some Non-'Bama Recruiting Tidbits...
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Last year, as I recall, was supposed to be a small class, too, BET, but it got bigger. Curious, why couldn't the same thing happen in 2011? Couldn't kids transfer out, as they have throughout CNS's tenure?
True, but keep in mind that the only way we were able to do that was because of a massive amount of attrition, and quite frankly we won't experience that same kind of attrition moving forward. There are really no more Shula guys left to fall away at this point, and most of the ones that would go away from Saban's 2007 and 2008 classes have already done so.
We'll probably sign 18-22 kids next year, and that will be it. Again, the outgoing senior class will be small (even with a couple of early entrants), and the attrition simply won't be high enough to get us to the number of signees we have seen 2008-2010.
Thanks for the answer. In the end, it will be interesting to see if CNS's recruits stick better than CMS's -- if they don't get a chance to play either. On the one hand, they are playing for the coach who recruited them. On the other, they may be impatient to play and opt to do that elsewhere if it's not happening here.
For that matter, I saw Travis Sikes' name pop up in an article the other day and was surprised -- and pleasantly so -- that he's still around.
I won't say it's totally impossible, but it is highly unlikely. To have a class ranked that high you need both a high average star rating and a ton of signees; one or the other isn't sufficient.
It could theoretically happen, admittedly, but we would literally have to rack up something like 6-7 five-stars and another 8-9 four-stars. Oh sure that could happen, and yes we do have a bit of a recruiting juggernaut to put it mildly, but even so the odds of any program doing that (regardless of who you are) are very small. The smarter money, I imagine, is on us signing 18-22 kids, having 3-4 five-stars, and then about 10 four-stars... all of which would put us somewhere in the bottom half of the top ten or just outside the top ten.
We will definitely see some transfers and other attrition, but it will be relatively limited compared with recent years. We might have somewhere in the neighborhood of 3-5 guys per year, but the 9+ that we have seen the past couple of years just won't continue into the future.
BET,
i agree would your assessment of the size of our future classs. from all indications, most Bama fans are predicting a very highly touted 2011 class.
you mentioned earlier that Bama could sign anywhere from 6-7 5* and around 10 or so 4* players next year. if that were to come true, IMO
our 2011 class will be among the Top 5, not only in the SEC but the nation as well.:BigA:
I do not disagree that would happen if we could ink that kind of class. My point is that actually signing a class that good will be extremely difficult.
Indeed I am, and it will be great.
I swear, after Auburn picked up the Whittaker kid out of Georgia today -- four-star DT, good player -- the Barners are about to drown in the Kool-Aid. They are thinking they'll get Lattimore, Lemonier, hold onto Coleman, etc. Hell, I'm surprised they are not expecting hat tricks from Seastrunk and Dixon at this point.
The only reason Auburn is attracting anyone is no one on their current team is any good so they have alot of open spots with open promises No team really knows what they got until they practice and actually deliver on the field
ABC 3340 just said Propst from Hoover has decommitted from West Virginia and has now committed to Tennessee.
Great analysis as usual, BET.
Looking forward, do you think that the size of our recruiting classes will tend to be 18-22 range? That seems to be the norm with schools like Southern Cal that pretty much sign nothing but top tier players with solid academics.
If so, I would think that the days of #1 recruiting rankings would be behind us, due to the smaller class sizes even if the average star rating is through the roof.
I think that, by and large, that is probably what we will see happen.
Oh sure, we'll have the occasional big class here and there, but realistically if you are consistently signing 27+ guys per year, you really aren't doing something right. The only way you can really do that long-term is if you are losing a ton of players to attrition -- academics, transfers, arrests, etc. -- and again that's just a sign you are doing something wrong in the first place. If you sign the right kids from the beginning, you'll never run into those issues on a widespread scale.
Realistically, with the 85 limit, you can really only average about 20 signees per year. Any more than that, you are going to have to force attrition to make it all fit. Simply put, at some point, if you are doing things right, you just have to live within your means.
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Thanks BET. Do you know how schools like Southern Cal handle redshirting? Specifically, if a player redshirts as a freshman but never really is able to contribute after 4 years, does the program keep him on athletic scholarship for the 5th year?
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