November 18 (week 4) CFP poll released

[rolltide_21]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

Remember Bama , MSU, OM, LSU do not play in the SEC EAST. Oregon does play in the PAC12 North. Tennessee might finish second in the PAC12 north. Think Bama would be unbeaten if every conference game wasn't an epic slugfest? Even the bad conference teams we play, UF And UT have NFL draft picks.

I understand all of this. That's why I would say the PAC 12 is second behind the SEC. This year the gap is not quite as large as it has been in the past few years due to the SEC east being down, Mizzou and UGA withstanding of course since they both could finish 10-2,

 

[Bama-94-00]

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. FSU
4. MSU

I don't get the one week jump. If the committee likes Bama so much why were we no higher than no. 5 the previous week (??).

 

[RTR91]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

That is the point that I made last night in this thread and most here disagreed. Most here seem to think that the committee will value an extra win in a conference championship game over a great win over Ole Miss. Of course, that all falls apart if Ole Miss loses this week in Arkansas. Then, with 3 losses, Ole Miss would drop back into the pack and look far less impressive.

I'm torn on it because I think MSU will suffer by not playing a game while Ohio State plays for the B1G and TCU and Baylor each have regular season games.

 

[B1GTide]

I don't get the one week jump. If the committee likes Bama so much why were we no higher than no. 5 the previous week (??).

The Alabama win over MSU was the most impressive win of any of the teams considered for the top 4, so they jumped to #1.

They didn't put Alabama in the top 4 the week before because your best win was over a 3 loss (at the time) LSU team.

 

[bamaga]

I understand all of this. That's why I would say the PAC 12 is second behind the SEC. This year the gap is not quite as large as it has been in the past few years due to the SEC east being down, Mizzou and UGA withstanding of course since they both could finish 10-2,

Or maybe the gap is bigger than ever as Oregon is the only team in their division with a winning record. Everyone points to the SEC EAST , but the PAC12 North is worse. You can't tell me The PAC12 south is better than the SECW. So I dare say the gap has widened.
Oregon is a good team. I have watched three Oregon games. This is not the Oregon team of a few years ago. Mark held rich is not Chip Kelly. Don Pellum is not Nick Aliotti. This Oregon team will not go far in the CFB playoffs.



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[B1GTide]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

I'm torn on it because I think MSU will suffer by not playing a game while Ohio State plays for the B1G and TCU and Baylor each have regular season games.

I think that it depends on a lot of things. If Ole Miss beats Arkansas this week they will be ranked no lower than #8. That would be a very solid win for MSU - better than any win on the resumes of OSU, TCU or Baylor. If Ole Miss loses to Arkansas, MSU is probably going to get knocked out. Their best wins will be over 4 loss teams. But you just never know because this committee seems to change its criteria each week.

 

[Al A Bama]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

That is the point that I made last night in this thread and most here disagreed. Most here seem to think that the committee will value an extra win in a conference championship game over a great win over Ole Miss. Of course, that all falls apart if Ole Miss loses this week in Arkansas. Then, with 3 losses, Ole Miss would drop back into the pack and look far less impressive.

I think tOSU will replace MSU. MSU will beat Ole Miss. Ole Miss will fall in the ranking. Then tOSU will beat a higher ranked Wisconsin in the B1G CG. This way the Committee can justify tOSU moving up.

I honestly think the Committee should take into account the rankings of teams when a certain team played them.

What was the ranking of these teams when Alabama played them? WVU, Florida, Ole Miss, ATM, et al.

 

[JeffAtlanta]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

What game remaining on the schedule can push TCU, Ohio State, Baylor past them since MSU has to go to Oxford to beat the #8 team?

The B1G conference championship game. It seems very likely that the committee will give conference championships very heavy weight.

If they win the SEC championship game, I'd expect the committee to rank a 2-loss UGA over a 1-loss Mississippi State. If OSU ends up with a conference title and only 1 loss, I think they are pretty much in.

The NYTimes has an excellent breakdown on the teams that control their own destiny and what help the others need. They have MSU in good shape, but I don't think it will hold unless they get help.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...playoff-ranking-scenarios.html?abt=0002&abg=0

 

[Al A Bama]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

I think tOSU will replace MSU. MSU will beat Ole Miss. Ole Miss will fall in the ranking. Then tOSU will beat a higher ranked Wisconsin in the B1G CG. This way the Committee can justify tOSU moving up.

I honestly think the Committee should take into account the rankings of teams when a certain team played them.

What was the ranking of these teams when Alabama played them? WVU, Florida, Ole Miss, ATM, et al.

And I forgot about Ole Miss vs Arkansas. I think the Hogs will win. So, Ole Miss will be ranked even lower after the MSU game. So an even bigger reason to bump MSU by the Committee.

 

[Bama-94-00]

The Alabama win over MSU was the most impressive win of any of the teams considered for the top 4, so they jumped to #1.

They didn't put Alabama in the top 4 the week before because your best win was over a 3 loss (at the time) LSU team.

Right, the put a lot of stock in the win over MSU. That just seems excessive to me, considering we were at home.

 

[B1GTide]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

And I forgot about Ole Miss vs Arkansas. I think the Hogs will win. So, Ole Miss will be ranked even lower after the MSU game. So an even bigger reason to bump MSU by the Committee.

If that happens and MSU beats Ole Miss, all of MSU's "good" wins will be over teams with at lest 4 losses (assuming Alabama also beats Auburn). That creates a legitimate debate over whose record "looks" better.

If Alabama and MSU end up at 7-1 in the SEC while the rest of the SECw ends up at 4-4 or worse, your division will truly have cannibalized itself into what will look like mediocrity to the rest of the college football world.

 

[bamaga]

That is the point that I made last night in this thread and most here disagreed. Most here seem to think that the committee will value an extra win in a conference championship game over a great win over Ole Miss. Of course, that all falls apart if Ole Miss loses this week in Arkansas. Then, with 3 losses, Ole Miss would drop back into the pack and look far less impressive.

Arkansas has a shot to beat Arkansas.. I think they jump over MSU because of a conference championship, and winning that in a game on the field is a plus. Combine that with MSU sitting at home.


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[TideEngineer08]

Re: Week 4 CFP poll released

If that happens and MSU beats Ole Miss, all of MSU's "good" wins will be over teams with at lest 4 losses (assuming Alabama also beats Auburn). That creates a legitimate debate over whose record "looks" better.

If Alabama and MSU end up at 7-1 in the SEC while the rest of the SECw ends up at 4-4 or worse, your division will truly have cannibalized itself into what will look like mediocrity to the rest of the college football world.

Yep. And frankly there is really no way to get around that conclusion.

 

[Al A Bama]

Right, the put a lot of stock in the win over MSU. That just seems excessive to me, considering we were at home.

If Ole Miss beats MSU will the Committee put less stock in our win? However, I don't think Ole Miss will beat MSU. I don't even think Ole Miss will beat Arkansas.

 

[oregonbltzkrieg]

tOSU is a playoff wildcard. Capable of beating anybody, or capable of getting blown out by anybody. They really kind of make me nervous. I'd rather them be on the outside looking in and would prefer to draw Florida St. in a first round matchup if everyone continues to win out.

 

[B1GTide]

Right, the put a lot of stock in the win over MSU. That just seems excessive to me, considering we were at home.

A whole lot of people are starting to doubt the strength of the SECw because the teams are losing. Well, guess what - they had to start losing because they are now playing one another. Add in the losses to a few SECe teams and things look, on paper, like they are getting weaker and weaker. But keep this in mind - the SECw teams still have not lost to a single team outside of the SEC. So, is the SECw getting weaker, or are they finally falling prey to themselves? Look at the schedules of the SECw teams over the last 5 weeks.

IMO, the SECw is exactly what we thought it was - the toughest in the country. And the SECw is eating itself alive. A four loss Auburn, LSU or Ole Miss (assuming they end up that way) would beat every 2 loss team in another conference, IMO.

 

[B1GTide]

tOSU is a playoff wildcard. Capable of beating anybody, or capable of getting blown out by anybody. They really kind of make me nervous. I'd rather them be on the outside looking in and would prefer to draw Florida St. in a first round matchup if everyone continues to win out.

Everyone wants FSU. They don't belong in this playoff and will get destroyed by whomever they play.

 

[crimsonaudio]

A whole lot of people are starting to doubt the strength of the SECw because the teams are losing. Well, guess what - they had to start losing because they are now playing one another.

Yup - the SECW has still only lost three games all year long to non-SECW teams - and those three were all to SECE teams...

 

[Go Bama]

The teams vying for the 4th spot will have to win with style. I thought David Pollack stated this well last night. We're basically down to 8 teams now. Teams 4-8 need help and MSU needs not only to win, but win big or they'll fall. IMO, there is still plenty of respect for the SEC west which is why Bama was able to leap frog to numero uno.

I'm still not buying the "committee is a joke". So far, the rankings look pretty fair to me. I don't understand why Baylor is ranked behind TCU, but I expect that will change when they've played the same number of games.

 

[B1GTide]

Yup - the SECW has still only lost three games all year long to non-SECW teams - and those three were all to SECE teams...

And to GA and Mizzou - the two best teams in the SECe. It's not like they are losing to UK or Vandy.