First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 - ???)

[Loam]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

I did leave them out. That was not an oversight. I just don't see a team from the B12 with a loss to a really bad team, and no championship game getting in. Those that can go undefeated I can see them jumping other teams with the heavy backend schedule.

While I do agree, Oklahoma does have the "Blue Blood" status that teams like Baylor and TCU do not have. So I think a 1 loss OU carries more weight than a 1 loss BU or TCU.

Especially if OU comes away as the Big 12 champion.

 

[tidefanbeezer]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

It's funny to me.....all of these Bama fans that think we still need help......

The Committee basically said last night - win and you're in.....

If we beat LSU we move up to 2 or 3 at worst.......

If we win out -- how do we fall out of the top 4? We don't.....

I could understand the fear prior to last night -- but after last night -- it's win and you are in.....

It's pretty clear.....

That's not the impression I got. I read it as right now, Alabama has a better resume than the teams behind it. In the coming weeks, there are a lot of high profile match-ups involving teams not named Alabama that will impact how the committee thinks where teams should be ranked.

Take a look at FSU last year. They debuted at #2. They continued to win each week but fluctuated up and down eventually landed at 3. What teams other teams did affected FSUs relative ranking.

TCU won every game from the time of the first CFP rankings to the last rankings and slipped in and out of the top 4. Using the "win and your in" thought process, they should have been a lock from week 12 (when they landed at #4). But they dipped out, came back in at week 15 (#3) then dropped 3 slots in the final week and fell out of the play-off picture, despite winning every game they played in the time frame.

Alabama jumped from #5 to #1 in on week (week 13, which incidentally bumped TCU down to #5).

I don't think its as simple as win and you are in. Too many things factor in to how the committee judges teams week to week to simplify it like that.

Ultimately though, this weeks rankings mean little.

 

[mittman]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

While I do agree, Oklahoma does have the "Blue Blood" status that teams like Baylor and TCU do not have. So I think a 1 loss OU carries more weight than a 1 loss BU or TCU.

Especially if OU comes away as the Big 12 champion.

Meh

Their loss is pretty bad Blue blood or not a lot would have to happen for them to overcome it.

Only way I see it is this:

Oklahoma wins out.
AND Oklahoma State loses to Iowa State or has two losses
AND TCU loses to Kansas or has two losses
AND Baylor loses to Kansas State or has two losses

I know we have seen some weird things happen, but this would be pretty far out there.

After what happened last year with Baylor or TCU, slighting them again probably isn't going to happen.

But hey that is just my take, I am capable of being wrong.

 

[Loam]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

That's not the impression I got. I read it as right now, Alabama has a better resume than the teams behind it. In the coming weeks, there are a lot of high profile match-ups involving teams not named Alabama that will impact how the committee thinks where teams should be ranked.

Take a look at FSU last year. They debuted at #2. They continued to win each week but fluctuated up and down eventually landed at 3. What teams other teams did affected FSUs relative ranking.

TCU won every game from the time of the first CFP rankings to the last rankings and slipped in and out of the top 4. Using the "win and your in" thought process, they should have been a lock from week 12 (when they landed at #4). But they dipped out, came back in at week 15 (#3) then dropped 3 slots in the final week and fell out of the play-off picture, despite winning every game they played in the time frame.

Alabama jumped from #5 to #1 in on week (week 13, which incidentally bumped TCU down to #5).

I don't think its as simple as win and you are in. Too many things factor in to how the committee judges teams week to week to simplify it like that.

Ultimately though, this weeks rankings mean little.

I don't think its that cut and dry either. However, the words "Eye Test" kept being thrown around last night and how Alabama passes the eye test. I am not quite sure what that means exactly. I'm only going to guess that it means that the committee has watched a lot of game film and something popped out at them regarding the top 4. In other words, they thought we were better than the teams behind us due to this "eye test".

Someone mentioned "If you're picking a team to win this or that game, you're picking them (Alabama) over the ND's, Baylor's and TCU's of the world." - So they feel confident in the team. To me, this means if we do win out, then we have an extremely great shot of being in at the end regardless of what other teams do.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

TCU thought the same last year going into its final game.

Bama as a #4 and TCU as a #3 last year -- is apples and oranges....

TCU was undefeated, schedule weak, and not respected - and most didn't think they belonged in the first place....

Bama - has a strong schedule, and everyone thinks they are the best team in America.....and still ranked them #4 even with a loss.....

 

[B1GTide]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Bama as a #4 and TCU as a #3 last year -- is apples and oranges....

TCU was undefeated, schedule weak, and not respected - and most didn't think they belonged in the first place....

Bama - has a strong schedule, and everyone thinks they are the best team in America.....and still ranked them #4 even with a loss.....

Are you paying attention to the uproar over the Alabama ranking?

 

[dvldog]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Are you paying attention to the uproar over the Alabama ranking?

No, should we be?

 

[deliveryman35]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

If they can get through the three game stretch of Baylor, TCU, and Oklahoma State, I will be amazed.

OU also has a defeat to Texas on their resume. That is NOT a quality loss.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Are you paying attention to the uproar over the Alabama ranking?

Yes....they don't think they belong in the Top 4 -- but not because they don't think they are the best team in America....it's because they lost to Ole Miss....

Most "experts" think Bama is the #1 team -- see Vegas line on Bama vs Clemson as an example....

If Bama beats LSU they'll be #1 or #2 -- if they win out - they will be in the top 4.....

 

[Loam]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Are you paying attention to the uproar over the Alabama ranking?

This is *mostly* from the fans though. Not the voters or *most* of the pundits. You're always going to have the Danny Kanell's of the world who hate no matter what.

 

[deliveryman35]

Re: Analysis of First Playoff Poll

deleted

 

[BAMARICH]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

It's funny to me.....all of these Bama fans that think we still need help......

The Committee basically said last night - win and you're in.....

If we beat LSU we move up to 2 or 3 at worst.......

If we win out -- how do we fall out of the top 4? We don't.....

I could understand the fear prior to last night -- but after last night -- it's win and you are in.....

It's pretty clear.....

This is not the AP or Coach's Poll... where this week's ranking has a connection to last week's. As many have said before me, this poll ultimately does not matter - only the final one does. However, here's the thing about last night's poll. More than anything else, we were allowed to see the reasoning of the committee.

For instance, we see that until the championships are determined, the committee values a strong SOS/good eye test over wins-loses (to some degree). Thus, as you advocate, IF we defeat LSU Saturday it's likely we will move up in the poll. However, at the same time, it's fair to say that on Saturday a few other team's SOS will improve also (i.e. Ok State, TCU, Memphis, etc.), and we'll see them rise on that basis also.

As as example, if TCU beats Ok State, I believe it's probable that the committee will elevate them above both Baylor and Michigan State - they would have a better win than either of those undefeated teams. With that scenario, I wouldn't expect the committee to elevate them over us (if we beat LSU). However, since things changed from this week to next, that could be the time that they decide "though Bama has beaten two highly ranked unbeaten teams (UGA, LSU) and TCU has only beaten one (Ok State), Bama has a loss and TCU does not" - and thus have TCU jump us in the poll.

At this point, all we know is that the committee values a strong SOS/eye test team with one loss above an undefeated team without a major win and a weak SOS. As those undefeated's improve their SOS and gain a major win or two, things will likely change. And, since there is nothing to go on except the precedent set last year regarding the "championship factor", I don't know how we can predict with certainty the weight this committee will give to winning a conference championship until the final poll.

 

[BAMARICH]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Yes....they don't think they belong in the Top 4 -- but not because they don't think they are the best team in America....it's because they lost to Ole Miss....

Most "experts" think Bama is the #1 team -- see Vegas line on Bama vs Clemson as an example....

If Bama beats LSU they'll be #1 or #2 -- if they win out - they will be in the top 4.....

I would say it's likely we'd be in the top 4 UNTIL the final poll. In the final poll, the only one that will be able to factor in the complete list of conference champions, we will finally see the weight that a championship has into the scenario. Like TCU last year, without a conference championship, all undefeated/one loss champions of the Power 5 would be elevated above us IMO.

 

[RollinTider1335]

Sans Crimson shaded glasses... Where does everybody think our strength of schedule ranks now? I still believe it should be ranked at the top somewhere. But I can see the argument where our big wins were against teams that are no longer highly ranked. ATM I believe lost a lot of steam after the loss to Alabama because there chances had diminished in the SECW. UGA is a totally different team and has had troubles significantly without Chubb. It can also be argued that we beat Georgia and Texas A&M as highly ranked teams at their best. We had two or three teams that had bye weeks before they played us.

I still believe if we win out then we are in.

RTR

 

[TideEngineer08]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

It's funny to me.....all of these Bama fans that think we still need help......

The Committee basically said last night - win and you're in.....

If we beat LSU we move up to 2 or 3 at worst.......

If we win out -- how do we fall out of the top 4? We don't.....

I could understand the fear prior to last night -- but after last night -- it's win and you are in.....

It's pretty clear.....

No, no it's not. Because other teams are going to play games. And they may or may not impress the committee more than Alabama. If say, TCU wins out in dominating fashion, and Alabama does also win out but fails to make the SEC title game due to Ole Miss winning out.. and it comes down to TCU/Alabama for that last spot, I would almost guarantee they would give TCU the nod. Why? Because they will have won a conference title AND finished undefeated. Alabama's SOS edge gets trumped by those two things.

This is why it's not clear, it's not a given, and the ranking means nothing. It's a snapshot in time that will change each week as the committee adds more data to their analysis. I don't, and never did, get the sense that a team was "protected" if they were 1, 2, or 3 and especially not 4. It will change, a ton of variables matter, and it's just way too soon to think that Alabama has it's own destiny in its hands.

 

[RTR91]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

I would say it's likeYeply we'd be in the top 4 UNTIL the final poll. In the final poll, the only one that will be able to factor in the complete list of conference champions, we will finally see the weight that a championship has into the scenario. Like TCU last year, without a conference championship, all undefeated/one loss champions of the Power 5 would be elevated above us IMO.

Yep. If Bama isn't playing the last weekend of the season, they're in trouble. The committee can easily go off the most recent impression.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Yep. If Bama isn't playing the last weekend of the season, they're in trouble. The committee can easily go off the most recent impression.

Then using that logic, LSU isn't safe either..... right? Even if they beat Bama but lose to Ole Miss....

 

[GrayTide]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

That is why I have said all along with the committee making the decisions, there are no guarantees period.

 

[RTR91]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

Then using that logic, LSU isn't safe either..... right? Even if they beat Bama but lose to Ole Miss....

I would agree with that. If Ole Miss wins out, the winner of Alabama-LSU is in trouble.

 

[CajunCrimson]

Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...

I would agree with that. If Ole Miss wins out, the winner of Alabama-LSU is in trouble.

My only issue with this line of reasoning, is that 4 of your top 6 (currently) can win out, and not play in a Championship Game.....on that last weekend.....that doesn't jive with my brain, I guess.....

Then, using this logic, Alabama, LSU, Notre Dame and Baylor, can win out, and can't get in either......and I guess that goes for TCU, Ok State as well....