Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
If ND wins out then two conference champions will be left out.
If ND wins out then two conference champions will be left out.
First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 - ???)
- Thread starter BamaDMD
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Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
So ND will not be knocking Alabama out, and I really don't think that you guys care if they knock someone else out so long as Alabama is also in.
I do not see a scenario in which ND gets in ahead of Alabama if Alabama wins out, SEC champions or not. They ranked Alabama ahead of ND already (meaning that the committee has more respect for your body of work right now), and you have a more difficult schedule the rest of the way).
So ND will not be knocking Alabama out, and I really don't think that you guys care if they knock someone else out so long as Alabama is also in.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
You may be right B1G, and I will believe ND is out if they lose at Stanford.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
A comment about the Big 12 back-loaded schedule - there are a lot of talking heads pontificating about the notion that no one can make it through the "gauntlet" of the back-loaded Big 12 schedule. The conference thought that by back loading the schedule they would create two things: a group of highly rated undefeated teams when the first ranking was released, and a playoff environment from that point forward in the Big 12 (hoping to over-ride their lack of a conference championship game). They achieved their desired result, but here is my problem. The gauntlet is made up of paper tigers.
They have 4 highly ranked teams left - OSU, OU, Baylor and TCU. None of those teams has played anyone of note. They have one loss among them, but what does that tell us about them? Nothing. Now, one or two may live up to their ranking, but at least 2 will not - but the winner will still get credit for running that "gauntlet" which, in reality, will be far less difficult than navigating through a conference schedule like that found in the SEC.
And if they all lose multiple times down this stretch they will claim that it is because the top of their conference is so competitive.
Well contrived obfuscation.
The good news (for fans outside of the Big 12) - any losses will occur so late in the season that they will be almost impossible to overcome without a real conference championship game.
A comment about the Big 12 back-loaded schedule - there are a lot of talking heads pontificating about the notion that no one can make it through the "gauntlet" of the back-loaded Big 12 schedule. The conference thought that by back loading the schedule they would create two things: a group of highly rated undefeated teams when the first ranking was released, and a playoff environment from that point forward in the Big 12 (hoping to over-ride their lack of a conference championship game). They achieved their desired result, but here is my problem. The gauntlet is made up of paper tigers.
They have 4 highly ranked teams left - OSU, OU, Baylor and TCU. None of those teams has played anyone of note. They have one loss among them, but what does that tell us about them? Nothing. Now, one or two may live up to their ranking, but at least 2 will not - but the winner will still get credit for running that "gauntlet" which, in reality, will be far less difficult than navigating through a conference schedule like that found in the SEC.
And if they all lose multiple times down this stretch they will claim that it is because the top of their conference is so competitive.
Well contrived obfuscation.
The good news (for fans outside of the Big 12) - any losses will occur so late in the season that they will be almost impossible to overcome without a real conference championship game.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
Also agree that a loss to Stanford puts ND on the outside.
I agree with Gray on this one. I see your point about the rankings. But I think the committee will penalize Alabama for not winning the conference (assuming Ole Miss wins out). Notre Dame will benefit from not playing in a conference this year. In future years, that may not be the case. But I think the stars aligning for Notre Dame with a better than expected schedule and a close loss to the top seeded team on the road.
Also agree that a loss to Stanford puts ND on the outside.
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Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
verb (used with object), obfuscated, obfuscating.1.to confuse, bewilder, or stupefy.
2.to make obscure or unclear:to obfuscate a problem with extraneous information.
3.to darken.
For those who do not know what the bolded term means here you go:
verb (used with object), obfuscated, obfuscating.1.to confuse, bewilder, or stupefy.
2.to make obscure or unclear:to obfuscate a problem with extraneous information.
3.to darken.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
We obviously won't know until the final poll exactly how the committee views an independent. However, I tend to believe that they'll penalize Notre Dame just like they did the Big 12 champ last season. Being independent means you'll never be conference champs... and the committee states that is a priority. If we both win out, I don't see any way Notre Dame gets in before us. We'll have the stronger schedule and will likely have a better "eye test".
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
That scenario would be interesting. I think they'd take ND if given that situation. ND is still a widely loved brand and I think they'd love nothing more than to use the non championship excuse to keep an SEC team out.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
I think people may be a little hesitant to jump on the ND bandwagon post butt whooping Bama put on them. The "close loss" to Clemson may have moved the needle a little. I would move more if they beat Stanford but that probably won't happen.
I think people may be a little hesitant to jump on the ND bandwagon post butt whooping Bama put on them. The "close loss" to Clemson may have moved the needle a little. I would move more if they beat Stanford but that probably won't happen.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
A reason for the committee to overlook some of Notre Dame's early season issues (UVA and Georgia Tech): starting QB Malik Zaire fractures his ankle and is out for the season.
A reason for the committee to question ND's close game with Clemson: the horrible conditions probably made the game closer than it should have been. The only other time Clemson scored in the 20's was against Louisville the previous week on Thursday night. Every other game is an average score of 47-17. Did the rain affect Clemson's offense, or did Notre Dame's defense?
Edit:
I looked at the defenses Clemson has faced. Louisville actually held Clemson below Louisville's season average. Everyone else gave up more than its season average. The worst defense Clemson faced is Wofford (26.7), but the worst FBS defense is Georgia Tech (26.1).
A reason for the committee to overlook some of Notre Dame's early season issues (UVA and Georgia Tech): starting QB Malik Zaire fractures his ankle and is out for the season.
A reason for the committee to question ND's close game with Clemson: the horrible conditions probably made the game closer than it should have been. The only other time Clemson scored in the 20's was against Louisville the previous week on Thursday night. Every other game is an average score of 47-17. Did the rain affect Clemson's offense, or did Notre Dame's defense?
Edit:
I looked at the defenses Clemson has faced. Louisville actually held Clemson below Louisville's season average. Everyone else gave up more than its season average. The worst defense Clemson faced is Wofford (26.7), but the worst FBS defense is Georgia Tech (26.1).
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Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
Outside of Stanford, Notre Dame's meat of the schedule is behind them. Alabama has a lot of meat in front of them. IF you're the committee, you've already conceded that (without championship stuff included) Alabama is a better team at this point. All Notre Dame will get going forward is a possible win over a top 10 Stanford team. Bama theoretically can get a win over #2 LSU and a possible top 15 Mississippi State. That's not even close on SOS closing out the season. Thus, to conclude Notre Dame would somehow jump us would mean the committee is totally giving ND a break on not being a conference champion - which I don't think they'll do.
Outside of Stanford, Notre Dame's meat of the schedule is behind them. Alabama has a lot of meat in front of them. IF you're the committee, you've already conceded that (without championship stuff included) Alabama is a better team at this point. All Notre Dame will get going forward is a possible win over a top 10 Stanford team. Bama theoretically can get a win over #2 LSU and a possible top 15 Mississippi State. That's not even close on SOS closing out the season. Thus, to conclude Notre Dame would somehow jump us would mean the committee is totally giving ND a break on not being a conference champion - which I don't think they'll do.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
I agree their schedule is contrived. I don't blame them.. they don't have a lot to work with, and they feel like they are correcting their mistakes from last year. In the end, I think they better hope one of those teams emerges undefeated. Some folks are talking up Oklahoma... I think they are in a worse boat than us. They need a lot of help even if they run the table the rest of the way. Their loss, while in a rivalry game, is a very bad loss.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
Second, in creating this back-loaded schedule to try to find the "side door" into the playoff, they've created a very difficult gauntlet for any of their teams to overcome. Think about a month in Bama's schedule this year where we played Ole Miss, LSU, UGA, and MSU in straight weeks without a breather. If you think we got worn down in October, that's a cake walk comparative to the above scenario. Personally, I don't see how a Big 12 team is going to survive this month without losing... and the WORST case scenario for them is going to be having two one-loss teams and having to "name" a champion (last year's situation all over again). Bottom line... the Big 12 is likely to get penalized AGAIN this year because they are arrogant and dumb. Maybe after this year, they'll change.
The first point applies to Notre Dame - if the committee shows the same sort of decision-making this year in their case as they did last year with Baylor & TCU, they're telling them "get in a conference so you can win a championship". With Notre Dame's schedule being what it is (especially being barely beaten on the road by Clemson - the #1 team), I think we already see the committee saying "if you're not in a conference, you're going to be penalized". IMO, one of the committee's WORST nightmare would be for 3-4 other schools becoming an independent - teams concluding that it's easier to get in a playoff WITHOUT being in a conference. Any teams big enough to have a stream of money via a TV deal and a big enough name could theoretically make this jump. I wouldn't think the committee would even want to go down that road.
I agree with your Oklahoma assessment. They would need to have convincing wins over all three of Baylor, TCU, and Ok State... and I just don't see that happening. Couple of thoughts about the Big 12... and I think one applies to Notre Dame also. First, they are being stubborn about a championship game. The committee has an easier job if all Power 5 conferences play by the same rules - and your UT/OK led Big 12 has dug their heels in and is defying the message sent by the committee last year. In a sense, they are saying "since we're from Texas, we don't have to play by the rules everyone else does."
Second, in creating this back-loaded schedule to try to find the "side door" into the playoff, they've created a very difficult gauntlet for any of their teams to overcome. Think about a month in Bama's schedule this year where we played Ole Miss, LSU, UGA, and MSU in straight weeks without a breather. If you think we got worn down in October, that's a cake walk comparative to the above scenario. Personally, I don't see how a Big 12 team is going to survive this month without losing... and the WORST case scenario for them is going to be having two one-loss teams and having to "name" a champion (last year's situation all over again). Bottom line... the Big 12 is likely to get penalized AGAIN this year because they are arrogant and dumb. Maybe after this year, they'll change.
The first point applies to Notre Dame - if the committee shows the same sort of decision-making this year in their case as they did last year with Baylor & TCU, they're telling them "get in a conference so you can win a championship". With Notre Dame's schedule being what it is (especially being barely beaten on the road by Clemson - the #1 team), I think we already see the committee saying "if you're not in a conference, you're going to be penalized". IMO, one of the committee's WORST nightmare would be for 3-4 other schools becoming an independent - teams concluding that it's easier to get in a playoff WITHOUT being in a conference. Any teams big enough to have a stream of money via a TV deal and a big enough name could theoretically make this jump. I wouldn't think the committee would even want to go down that road.
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Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
Absolutely. I always learn something new on Tidefans.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
I do think though that no conference affiliation will help them in certain years. This year could be one of those years. True, Notre Dame will never receive the benefit of winning a conference championship. But they also don't have the risk of not participating in a conference championship. They could benefit from the mindset I described, in that the committee punishes others for failure to win a conference championship while staying neutral on Notre Dame (since they can neither win nor lose a conference championship).
They could very well penalize them for not being in a conference, but I don't think that will be the case. The committee knows at the outset that ND can't win a conference title and will adjust their thinking appropriately (weighting other factors more heavily for ND).
I do think though that no conference affiliation will help them in certain years. This year could be one of those years. True, Notre Dame will never receive the benefit of winning a conference championship. But they also don't have the risk of not participating in a conference championship. They could benefit from the mindset I described, in that the committee punishes others for failure to win a conference championship while staying neutral on Notre Dame (since they can neither win nor lose a conference championship).
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
Of course, the Big 12 is hoping the ncaa deregulates the championship game rule and allows it for any conference regardless of divisions or number of teams. But to me, you've still got a watered down product as you already play a round-robin schedule.
But they and their Texas ego created this mess. I do hope they are shut out of the playoff again.
It would be so easy if Notre Dame and BYU would join the Big 12. Each could keep their own network affiliation (Notre Dame-NBC, BYU-BYUtv). And you'd have the championship game and divisions.
Of course, the Big 12 is hoping the ncaa deregulates the championship game rule and allows it for any conference regardless of divisions or number of teams. But to me, you've still got a watered down product as you already play a round-robin schedule.
But they and their Texas ego created this mess. I do hope they are shut out of the playoff again.
Re: First Playoff Poll Released (predictions - first 5 pages; analysis - page 6 -...
I'll have more to say on this tomorrow (extremely busy during my off time, heh heh).
In general, I agree with TE08 and RTR91 and B1G with what they've said.
On Kanell - somebody ought to point out on his Twitter that if we applied HIS logic to 1993, the national title game would have been WVA vs Nebraska, and he'd still not have a championship ring. (I ascribe to the 'Hit them where it hurts with logic' principle).
If SOS does NOT matter, then FSU had NO BUSINESS playing for the 1993 title (aside from how it was rigged but I digress - and I hate Nebraska, but they got messed over royally that night).
If it DOES, he has NO BUSINESS complaining about it
I'll have more to say on this tomorrow (extremely busy during my off time, heh heh).
In general, I agree with TE08 and RTR91 and B1G with what they've said.
On Kanell - somebody ought to point out on his Twitter that if we applied HIS logic to 1993, the national title game would have been WVA vs Nebraska, and he'd still not have a championship ring. (I ascribe to the 'Hit them where it hurts with logic' principle).
If SOS does NOT matter, then FSU had NO BUSINESS playing for the 1993 title (aside from how it was rigged but I digress - and I hate Nebraska, but they got messed over royally that night).
If it DOES, he has NO BUSINESS complaining about it
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